HTSC·2025-04-29 04:15Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance showed a decline in revenue and net profit due to falling coal prices, with revenue at 38.392 billion RMB, down 15.43% year-on-year, and net profit at 3.978 billion RMB, down 19.96% year-on-year [1][2] - Despite the decline, the company achieved significant cost reductions, expanded production and sales scale, and improved order structure, indicating resilience in cash flow and dividend sustainability [1][3] - The company plans to maintain its cash dividend policy in 2025, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The coal business generated sales revenue of 31.250 billion RMB in Q1 2025, a decrease of 16.6% year-on-year, with a production volume of 33.35 million tons, up 1.9% year-on-year, and sales volume of 64.14 million tons, up 0.4% year-on-year [2] - The average selling price of self-produced coal decreased by 106 RMB/ton (-11.7%) to 492 RMB/ton, contributing to a revenue loss of 3.457 billion RMB, while the increase in sales volume partially offset this decline [2] Cost Management and Client Structure - The unit sales cost of self-produced coal was 269.82 RMB/ton, down 21.15 RMB/ton (-7.3%) year-on-year, driven by reduced material costs and optimized expense management [3] - The company maintains a strong client structure, primarily serving state-owned enterprises, which helps stabilize sales during price downturns [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 15.849 billion RMB, 18.112 billion RMB, and 18.546 billion RMB, reflecting a decrease of 6.8%, 4.6%, and 2.5% from previous estimates [4] - The target price for A-shares is set at 11.82 RMB, and for H-shares at 9.84 HKD, based on a DDM valuation approach [4]