Shanghai Ziyan Foods (SH:603057) Changjiang Securities·2025-04-29 04:43Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company's total revenue for 2024 is projected at 3.363 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.28%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 346 million yuan, an increase of 4.5%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items is estimated at 281 million yuan, up 1.28% [2][4]. - In Q4 2024, the total revenue is expected to be 676 million yuan, down 7.88%, with a net profit of -2.489 million yuan, indicating a reduction in losses, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of -20.282 million yuan, showing an increase in losses [2][4]. - For Q1 2025, the total revenue is projected at 564 million yuan, a decline of 18.86%, with a net profit of 15.218 million yuan, down 71.8%, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 5.003 million yuan, down 87.09% [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s revenue and profit are under pressure, with a significant decline in Q1 2025 compared to the previous year. The revenue for 2025 is expected to continue facing challenges due to store closures and external factors affecting consumer behavior [10]. - The company plans to establish a processing base in Nepal to mitigate cost fluctuations, investing up to 500 million yuan in its subsidiary [10]. - The company aims to maintain a high dividend policy, proposing a cash dividend of 5.2 yuan per 10 shares, with a total cash dividend of 340 million yuan for 2024, resulting in a payout ratio of 98.04% [10]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 271 million yuan, 312 million yuan, and 364 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.65 yuan, 0.75 yuan, and 0.88 yuan. The price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 35, 30, and 26 times respectively [10].