光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025年4月29日）-20250429

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea: The urea futures market is expected to remain firm before the holiday, with increased market volatility. The supply of urea continues to rise, and the production rate on April 28 was 20.16 million tons, a daily increase of 0.65 million tons. Before the May Day holiday, urea manufacturers are in the process of reducing prices to attract orders, and the sales - to - production ratio in the mainstream areas has mostly increased to the range of 260% - 410%. However, due to the drought, the agricultural demand in North and Northeast China is progressing slowly, so the sustainability of spot transactions needs to be observed. It is recommended that previous long positions and call options be appropriately closed for profit due to high market uncertainties during the holiday [1]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures market shows a phased rebound, but its sustainability may be tested. In the long - term, the loose pattern of soda ash remains unchanged, and the general strategy is to short on rallies. Before the May Day holiday, the replenishment demand of the mid - and downstream has been released, driving the inventory of soda ash plants to decrease by 1.11% compared to last Thursday. The daily operating rate of the industry increased slightly to 89.8% on April 28, but more maintenance devices are expected after the holiday, which will strengthen the support of soda ash supply to the market [1]. - Glass: The trading logic of the glass market will shift from macro - policy expectations to fundamentals. In the short term, some supply - demand indicators of glass have slightly improved, but the industry sentiment remains cautious before more positive factors are realized. The futures market faces difficulties in breaking through upwards and may maintain a wide - range oscillation trend before the holiday. Multiple glass production lines have been shut down or cold - repaired since the weekend, reducing the daily melting volume to 15.72 million tons, which strengthens the support for the market. The demand shows differentiation, with the sales - to - production ratio in the Shahe area declining, while those in Hubei, South China, and East China can still maintain around or above 100% [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Information Urea - Zhengshang Institute data shows that on April 28, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts was 4,999, a decrease of 49 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 25 [4]. - Longzhong data indicates that on April 28, the daily output of the urea industry was 20.16 million tons, an increase of 0.65 million tons from the previous working day and 1.46 million tons from the same period last year; the industry's operating rate was 87.43%, a 1.07 - percentage - point increase from 86.36% in the same period last year [4]. - On April 28, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions were as follows: Shandong 1,790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; Henan 1,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hebei 1,810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; Anhui 1,810 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; Jiangsu 1,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; Shanxi 1,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [4]. Soda Ash & Glass - Zhengshang Institute data shows that on April 28, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 3,840, a decrease of 90 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast volume was 2,687; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 2,441, unchanged from the previous trading day [6]. - On April 28, the spot prices of soda ash in various regions were as follows: North China, light soda ash 1,400 yuan/ton, heavy soda ash 1,500 yuan/ton; Central China, light soda ash 1,260 yuan/ton, heavy soda ash 1,400 yuan/ton; East China, light soda ash 1,350 yuan/ton, heavy soda ash 1,450 yuan/ton; South China, light soda ash 1,500 yuan/ton, heavy soda ash 1,550 yuan/ton; Southwest, light soda ash 1,400 yuan/ton, heavy soda ash 1,450 yuan/ton; Northwest, light soda ash 1,100 yuan/ton, heavy soda ash 1,100 yuan/ton, all unchanged from the previous day [6]. - Longzhong data shows that on April 28, the capacity utilization rate of the soda ash industry was 89.8%, compared with 89.05% on the previous working day [7]. - On April 28, the average price of the float glass market was 1,276 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the industry's daily output was 15.72 million tons, unchanged from the previous day [7]. Chart Analysis The report provides multiple charts, including the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and positions of urea and soda ash futures contracts, as well as the price trends of urea and soda ash spot, and the price differences between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash futures. All chart data sources are iFind and the Research Institute of Everbright Futures [10][11][12][13][14][17][18][19][20][21][22]. Research Team Members Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the research director of resource products at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, focuses on the sugar industry. She has won many awards in analyst evaluations [24]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst of resource products at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, is responsible for researching futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass. She has won multiple honors [24]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst of resource products at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, is mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [24].