Changjiang Securities·2025-04-29 05:14Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Insights - The company's performance in Q1 2025 met expectations, with EBITDA showing year-on-year growth. Traditional business remains stable, and the comprehensive ARPU for fixed-line services continues to grow positively. The government and enterprise market is gaining momentum, with strengthened cooperation with the internet sector, particularly a new strategic partnership with Alibaba [2][6][11]. - The operating cash flow showed a negative growth primarily due to the company accelerating payment processes, while accounts receivable growth has significantly slowed, marking the lowest growth rate among the three major operators [2][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 263.8 billion yuan, flat year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 30.6 billion yuan, up 3.5% year-on-year. EBITDA reached 80.7 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.4% increase [6][11]. - The company aims for steady revenue growth and good profit growth throughout the year, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 145.6 billion yuan, 153 billion yuan, and 160.5 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to year-on-year growth rates of 5.2%, 5.1%, and 4.9% [11]. Business Segments - The traditional business remains robust, with the total number of mobile customers at 1.003 billion, a slight decrease of 936,000. The number of 5G network users reached 578 million, with a penetration rate of 58%. The mobile ARPU was 46.9 yuan, down 2.1% year-on-year. In the home market, the total number of broadband customers reached 320 million, with a quarterly net increase of 5.48 million [11]. - The government and enterprise market's revenue share has increased, with the company promoting AI+DICT project standardization and scale expansion. A strategic cooperation agreement was signed with Alibaba to enhance collaboration in digital infrastructure and AI services [11]. Cash Flow and Receivables - The net operating cash flow for Q1 2025 was 31.3 billion yuan, down 45% year-on-year, mainly due to the company accelerating payments to private and small enterprises. Accounts receivable grew by 16.5% year-on-year, but the growth rate is the lowest among the three operators, indicating improved control over receivables [11].