中辉期货日刊-20250429

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Weak [1] - LPG: Sideways [1] - L: Bearish [1] - PP: Sideways [1] - PVC: Sideways [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Glass: Sideways [1] - Soda ash: Sideways [1] - Methanol: Bearish [1] - Urea: Bearish [1] - Asphalt: Bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The trade policy uncertainty and OPEC+ production increase lead to a weak oil price, while the upcoming trade peak season strengthens the short - term downside support [2]. - LPG follows the oil price for consolidation, with short - term cost support but weak strength [7]. - For L, the high - operation of devices, abundant supply, and weakening demand result in a bearish outlook [10]. - PP shows a short - term support due to high parking ratio and weak supply - demand, but a bearish long - term outlook [13]. - PVC has a cost - supported low - level sideways movement, and short - term wait - and - see is recommended [16]. - PX has an improved April fundamental and is currently fluctuating with cost, showing a bullish sideways trend [18]. - PTA has reduced supply pressure, but the downstream polyester is expected to weaken, with a short - term bullish trend and opportunities to short at high levels [22]. - Ethylene glycol has a high arrival volume and expected weakening demand, with limited cost support and a bearish short - term adjustment [24]. - Glass has a stable low - level supply, seasonal demand improvement, but high inventory restricts the short - term rebound [27]. - Soda ash has a short - term warm sideways movement due to reduced supply, but a bearish mid - term outlook due to new capacity [1]. - Methanol has a large supply pressure, weakening demand, and weak cost support, with a bearish short - term outlook [29]. - Urea has a large supply pressure and weak demand, but fast - growing fertilizer exports, with a bearish outlook and opportunities to go long on pullbacks [33]. - Asphalt has a high crack spread and a bearish rebound, with a weak and sideways cost - end oil price [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - Market Performance: Overnight international oil prices declined (WTI down 1.54%, Brent down 1.53%), while domestic SC rose 0.06% [2]. - Supply: As of April 25, the number of active US oil rigs increased by 2 to 483. Kazakhstan's March oil production decreased by about 3% to 62.7 barrels per day [2]. - Demand: In April, Russia's supply of ESPO blended oil to Indian ports increased to about 400,000 tons (about 100,000 barrels per day) [2]. - Inventory: As of April 18, US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 2 million barrels to 443.1 million barrels, and strategic crude oil reserve increased by 5 million barrels to 397.5 million barrels [2]. - Strategy: Long - term price range is $55 - 65, short - term is weak, and SC focuses on [480 - 500] [3]. 3.2 LPG - Market Performance: On April 28, the main PG contract closed at 4,395 yuan/ton, down 0.25% [5][6]. - Supply: As of April 25, the total LPG commodity volume was 515,500 tons, up 2,300 tons [7]. - Demand: As of April 25, the开工 rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil decreased by 3.09pct, 2.18pct, and 0.51pct respectively [7]. - Inventory: As of April 25, refinery inventory was 163,200 tons, down 1,000 tons, and port inventory was 2.8402 million tons, up 175,700 tons [7]. - Strategy: Long - term cost support is weak, follow the oil price for consolidation, and conduct PG05 - 06 positive spread operation and sell call options. PG focuses on [4350 - 4450] [7]. 3.3 L - Market Performance: L09 (main contract) closed at 7,164 yuan/ton, up 0.2% [9]. - Supply: New production capacity of 2.08 million tons has been put into operation this year, and the LLDPE, LDPE film, and HDPE film import windows are closed [10]. - Demand: The agricultural film season is ending, and demand is gradually weakening [10]. - Inventory: PE enterprise inventory increased by 5.9% to 530,000 tons [9]. - Strategy: Go short at high levels, and L focuses on [7080 - 7200] [10]. 3.4 PP - Market Performance: PP09 (main contract) closed at 7,112 yuan/ton, up 0.2% [12]. - Supply: Baofeng's 1 million tons/year PP device was successfully put into operation in the first quarter, and attention is paid to the commissioning progress of Zhongjing Petrochemical's 1.5 million tons/year PDH device [13]. - Demand: Product exports are under pressure due to tariff disturbances [13]. - Inventory: PP enterprise inventory decreased by 2.4% to 600,000 tons [12]. - Strategy: Short - term wait - and - see, mid - term short at high levels, and PP focuses on [7050 - 7150] [13]. 3.5 PVC - Market Performance: V09 (main contract) closed at 4,989 yuan/ton, up 0.6% [15]. - Supply: Xinpu Chemical's 500,000 - ton device was put into operation in January, and the capacity utilization rate is 79% [16]. - Demand: The decline in real - estate completion area narrows, and downstream开工率 decreases seasonally [16]. - Inventory: PVC仓单 decreased by 0.3% to 29,653 [15]. - Strategy: Short - term wait - and - see, go long on pullbacks, and V focuses on [4920 - 5060] [16]. 3.6 PX - Market Performance: On April 25, the spot price of PX in East China was 6,600 yuan/ton (flat), and the PX09 contract closed at 6,230 yuan/ton (+64) [17]. - Supply: Many domestic and overseas PX devices are under maintenance, with the weekly output of 647,000 tons, down 7,000 tons [18]. - Demand: PTA device maintenance is high, and the demand is expected to weaken [18]. - Inventory: In March, PX inventory was at a high level in the same period, and the number of warehouse receipts was 1,064, lower than the same period [18]. - Strategy: PX focuses on [6220 - 6320] [19]. 3.7 PTA - Market Performance: On April 25, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4,490 yuan/ton (+62), and the TA09 contract closed at 4,400 yuan/ton (+30) [20][21]. - Supply: Many PTA devices are under maintenance, with a weekly output of 1.393 million tons, up 55,000 tons [22]. - Demand: The downstream polyester is expected to weaken, and the terminal weaving inventory is high [22]. - Inventory: PTA social inventory decreased to 4.804 million tons in March, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [22]. - Strategy: TA focuses on [4420 - 4520], and pay attention to shorting at high levels [22]. 3.8 Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: On April 25, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,184 yuan/ton (-32), and the EG09 contract closed at 4,160 yuan/ton (-19) [23]. - Supply: Many domestic and overseas devices are under maintenance, with a high expected arrival volume of 248,000 tons [24]. - Demand: The downstream polyester is expected to weaken, and the terminal weaving inventory is high [24]. - Inventory: Social inventory increased slightly, and port inventory decreased [24]. - Strategy: EG focuses on [4150 - 4220] [25]. 3.9 Glass - Market Performance: The spot market quotation is regionally differentiated, the futures is at a low - level sideways movement, the main contract basis narrows, and the number of warehouse receipts decreases [27]. - Supply: The glass supply remains stable at a low level, and the cold - repair plan of manufacturers slows down after the cost decreases [27]. - Demand: The demand shows a seasonal improvement but is lower than the same period, and the real - estate industry has not stabilized [27]. - Inventory: The total enterprise inventory increased by 395,000 heavy boxes to 65.473 million heavy boxes, up 0.61% [27]. - Strategy: FG focuses on [1100 - 1140] [27]. 3.10 Soda Ash - Market Performance: The spot market quotation is regionally differentiated, the futures is at a low - level sideways movement [1]. - Supply: There are many maintenance plans, and the supply is expected to decrease [1]. - Demand: No specific demand - related content mentioned in the provided documents. - Inventory: The alkali plant inventory decreases slightly [1]. - Strategy: No specific strategy content other than the price range in the provided documents. 3.11 Methanol - Market Performance: On April 25, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,413 yuan/ton (+5), and the main 09 contract closed at 2,288 yuan/ton (-1) [29]. - Supply: Domestic and overseas methanol devices are under maintenance, but the supply pressure is still large, and the import is expected to increase in May [29]. - Demand: The demand of MTO devices is expected to weaken, and the traditional downstream demand is in the off - season [29]. - Inventory: The social inventory of methanol decreases slightly to 773,000 tons [29]. - Strategy: MA focuses on [2260 - 2310], and go short on rebounds [29][30]. 3.12 Urea - Market Performance: On April 25, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1,830 yuan/ton (flat), and the main contract closed at 1,757 yuan/ton (-1) [32]. - Supply: The maintenance devices are gradually restarted, with a high daily output, and the supply pressure is large [33]. - Demand: It is the off - season for agricultural fertilization, and the industrial demand is weak, but fertilizer exports are growing fast [33]. - Inventory: The inventory accumulates, with the factory inventory at 1.065 million tons and the port inventory at 117,000 tons [33]. - Strategy: The price range of UR is [1760 - 1790], and pay attention to going long on pullbacks [33]. 3.13 Asphalt - Market Performance: No specific recent market performance content mentioned other than the price range in the provided documents. - Supply: No specific supply - related content mentioned in the provided documents. - Demand: No specific demand - related content mentioned in the provided documents. - Inventory: Both social and factory inventories are increasing [1]. - Strategy: The price range of BU is [3400 - 3500], and go short on rebounds [1].