关注欧佩克6月增产节奏

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate and build a bottom, with a medium - term bearish allocation [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The OPEC+ will hold a production - limit meeting in May. After unexpectedly accelerating production by 411,000 barrels per day in April, Kazakhstan, which has been over - producing recently, has not promised to cut production. Saudi Arabia may further accelerate production in June to discipline Kazakhstan, which will bring further supply pressure to the market [2] - Uncertainty around the OPEC+ June production increase plan and growing concerns about the organization's unity pose significant downside risks to the oil market. The risk to OPEC+ unity is increasing [1] - The French bank predicts that Brent crude oil prices will reach a high of $60 per barrel in the second quarter, $70 per barrel in the third quarter, and average around $65 per barrel by the end of this year [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 97 cents to $62.05 per barrel, a decrease of 1.54%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for June delivery fell $1.01 to $65.86 per barrel, a decrease of 1.51%. The main SC crude oil contract closed down 1.15% at 489 yuan per barrel [1] - Saudi Arabia may slightly raise the official selling price (OSP) of oil to Asian customers in June for the first time in three months, following the upward trend of benchmark oil prices this month. The official selling price of Arab light crude oil in June may be raised by 10 - 30 cents to $1.30 - $1.50 per barrel [1] - India increased its purchases of ESPO blend oil from Russia in April to the highest level since August 2024, with supplies increasing to about 400,000 tons (about 100,000 barrels per day) in April from 100,000 tons in March, and may receive another 200,000 tons in May [1] Investment Logic - The OPEC+ will hold a production - limit meeting in May. After Kazakhstan's over - production, Saudi Arabia may accelerate production in June, which will bring supply pressure to the market [2] Strategy - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate and build a bottom, with a medium - term bearish allocation [3] Risks - Downward risks include significant OPEC production increases and macro black - swan events; upward risks include tightened supply of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [4]