格林大华期货双焦早盘提示-20250429

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The investment rating for the black sector (coking coal and coke) is "oscillating with a bearish bias" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Jm2509 contract closed at 947.0, down 0.94% from the previous trading day's close, and in the night session, it closed at 939.5, down 0.79% from the day - session close. The J2509 contract closed at 1562.0, down 0.26% from the previous trading day's close, and in the night session, it closed at 1557.5, down 0.29% from the day - session close [1] - In the May steel - using survey for the manufacturing industry, in the steel structure industry, sample enterprises' willingness to stock up actively was weak, with raw material inventory down 1.69% month - on - month and daily consumption down 1.56% month - on - month; in the machinery industry, sample enterprises' raw material inventory was down 5.98% month - on - month, and available days were down 3.09% month - on - month; in the automotive industry, sample enterprises' raw material inventory was down 1.10% month - on - month and daily raw material consumption increased slightly by 2.16% month - on - month [1] - Recently, there have been rumors of crude steel production cuts, which are negative for the coking coal and coke markets. The second round of price increases started last Friday, but currently, the end - users do not accept the price increases. With coke enterprises' profits gradually improving, it is unlikely that this round of price increases will be implemented before the holiday. Downstream coking coal inventory is mostly kept at a low level, and most of the auction prices have fallen. The coking coal and coke markets are expected to oscillate before the holiday [1] 3. Summary of Related Contents Market Review - The Jm2509 contract closed at 947.0, down 0.94% from the previous trading day's close, and in the night session, it closed at 939.5, down 0.79% from the day - session close. The J2509 contract closed at 1562.0, down 0.26% from the previous trading day's close, and in the night session, it closed at 1557.5, down 0.29% from the day - session close [1] Important Information - In the May steel - using survey for the manufacturing industry, in the steel structure industry, sample enterprises' willingness to stock up actively was weak, with raw material inventory down 1.69% month - on - month and daily consumption down 1.56% month - on - month; in the machinery industry, sample enterprises' raw material inventory was down 5.98% month - on - month, and available days were down 3.09% month - on - month; in the automotive industry, sample enterprises' raw material inventory was down 1.10% month - on - month and daily raw material consumption increased slightly by 2.16% month - on - month [1] - At the regular press conference on April 28, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun stated that according to information, the two heads of state have not had a phone call recently, and China and the US have not conducted consultations or negotiations on the tariff issue [1] Market Logic - Recently, there have been rumors of crude steel production cuts, which are negative for the coking coal and coke markets. The second round of price increases started last Friday, but currently, the end - users do not accept the price increases. With coke enterprises' profits gradually improving, it is unlikely that this round of price increases will be implemented before the holiday. Downstream coking coal inventory is mostly kept at a low level, and most of the auction prices have fallen. The coking coal and coke markets are expected to oscillate before the holiday [1] Trading Strategy - As the May Day holiday approaches, it is recommended to hold a light position or be out of the market to avoid market sentiment fluctuations during the holiday [1]