永辉超市（601933）：2024年年报及2025年一季报点评：经营趋势向好，供应链改造及关店影响短期利润

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's overall operational fundamentals are continuously improving, including procurement, product structure, supply chain enhancements, and accelerated store renovations. Despite short-term profit impacts from supply chain reforms and store closures, the long-term performance outlook remains positive [7][10] - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit due to store closures, with a 14.1% year-on-year decrease in revenue for 2024 and a 10.3% decline in net profit [7] - The company is undergoing a transformation with a focus on optimizing its product offerings and procurement strategies, which has temporarily affected gross margins [7][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 67.574 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.07% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -1.465 billion yuan, down 10.26% year-on-year [1][7] - For Q1 2025, the company recorded revenue of 17.5 billion yuan, a decline of 19.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.15 billion yuan, down 80% year-on-year [7] - The company's gross margin for Q1 2025 was 21.50%, reflecting a decrease of 1.35 percentage points year-on-year [7] Store Operations - By the end of 2024, the company had 775 stores, a net decrease of 225 stores year-on-year, with a 21% reduction in operational area [7] - The company plans to continue closing underperforming stores, with a target of closing 250-330 stores by the end of 2025 [7] - The number of renovated stores is expected to reach 200 by the end of 2025, contributing to future performance improvements [7] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with net profit estimates revised to -870 million yuan and 2.4 billion yuan, respectively, while projecting a net profit of 14.3 billion yuan for 2027 [7] - The ongoing store renovations and closures are seen as necessary steps towards achieving profitability in the long run [7]