黑色建材日报：市场情绪一般，钢价震荡偏弱-20250429

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The overall market sentiment is average, with steel prices fluctuating weakly. The fundamentals of rebar are good, while hot-rolled coils are affected by tariff policies. Iron ore prices have slightly declined, and the supply pressure has eased. Coking coal and coke futures are fluctuating, and the supply of thermal coal has tightened at the end of the month, with prices fluctuating [1][3][5][9]. - In the long term, the iron ore market shows a pattern of relatively loose supply and demand, and the supply surplus pattern of coking coal has not changed significantly. The supply pattern of thermal coal remains loose [3][7][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: The rebar futures main contract closed at 3,129 yuan/ton, and the hot-rolled coil main contract closed at 3,237 yuan/ton. The national inventory was 8.8211 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.47%. The steel inventory decreased by 5.11% week-on-week, and the hot-rolled coil increased by 2.69% week-on-week. The spot steel trading volume was average, with a national building materials trading volume of 120,500 tons [1]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading is expected to be fluctuating and slightly stronger [2]. Iron Ore - Market Analysis: The iron ore futures price slightly declined, with the main 2509 contract closing at 710.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.49%. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port slightly increased, and the market trading sentiment was cold. The global iron ore shipment volume significantly rebounded to 3.188 million tons. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major domestic ports was 962,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 214.28%. The total transaction volume of forward spot was 828,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 50.55% [3]. - Strategy: Pay attention to the impact of supply-side changes on the industrial chain. In the medium and long term, the iron ore market shows a pattern of relatively loose supply and demand. For unilateral trading, pay attention to the opportunity to sell for hedging after the price rebounds (preferably swap hedging) [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: The coking coal and coke futures fluctuated weakly. Most steel mills had good procurement enthusiasm, and some steel mills had a small replenishment plan before the May Day holiday. The price of low-sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1,277 yuan/ton. The customs clearance at the Ganqimao Port of imported Mongolian coal remained at a low level, and the inventory in the supervision area decreased significantly. The coking coal inventory showed a decreasing trend due to environmental protection supervision and the phased decline in Mongolian coal customs clearance [5][7]. - Strategy: Coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate [8]. Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: The pithead coal price fluctuated. At the end of the month, a small number of coal mines had maintenance after completing their tasks, and the supply tightened. The port inventory had reached a historical high, and the downstream demand was weak. The import market was stable and weak [9]. - Strategy: Due to the serious lack of futures liquidity, it is recommended to wait and see [10].