五一期间风险提示和节后策略建议

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Short - term tariff event shocks are暂缓, focus on subsequent economic impact and negotiation progress. - Domestic stock indices show significant holiday seasonality, with a rising trend in the first month after the holiday. - Different commodity sectors have different focuses, such as the impact of travel consumption on crude oil prices, and the influence of domestic policies on industrial products [60][62]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Key Events and Data: During the domestic May Day holiday, important events and data include the US Trump's 100 - day State of the Union address on April 29, China's April Caixin PMI on April 30, etc. [4] - Tariff Impact: The tariff event's short - term impact on market sentiment has eased, but attention should be paid to its impact on the economy. Some countries have reached preliminary agreements with the US, while others are in the process of negotiation, counter - measures, or have adopted loose policies [5][7][8]. - Political Bureau Meeting: The April Political Bureau Meeting emphasized economic recovery, recognized increased external pressure, and called for more active macro - policies, including fiscal and monetary policies, to support the real economy [6]. High - Frequency Observation - Sino - US Tariff Dispute: After the US launched a tariff blitz on April 2, Sino - US trade volume has significantly decreased, and China's container exports to the US have been severely affected [9]. Stock Index - Performance Support: The overall A - share profitability has been recovering from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, which may support the stock index. Sectors such as social services, public utilities, and environmental protection have significant profit improvement and low valuations [14]. - Policy Support: In Q1 2025, the proportion of public funds' stock allocation increased, while the proportion of foreign capital's shareholding in A - shares decreased. Policy - based funds showed strong willingness to support the market, and large - scale purchases of index ETFs may lead to an upward trend in large - cap stock indices [17]. Treasury Bond - Curve Flattening: The long - term interest rate is at a low level, and the Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term, waiting for policy or fundamental catalysts [29]. Container Shipping Futures - Capacity Adjustment: The number of cancellations on the US route has increased significantly, and some ships on the US route have been transferred to the European route, increasing the supply pressure. The capacity in May is gradually increasing [30][36]. Exchange Rate - Renminbi Fluctuation: Currently, the economic expectations, Sino - US interest rate differentials, and trade policy uncertainties are neutral. In the short term, the RMB is expected to remain strong and fluctuate within a range [43]. Strategy - Calendar Effect: Domestic stock indices show significant holiday seasonality, rising in the first month after the holiday. Different commodity sectors have different performance characteristics during the holiday [46]. Scenario - Interest Rate Cut and Recession: In recession samples, gold leads the commodity market, and the commodity sectors first decline and then rise. In non - recession samples, the performance of commodity sectors varies [49]. - US "Stagflation": Historically, during stagflation periods, assets are highly differentiated. Gold and crude oil perform well in resisting stagflation [58]. Event - US Inflation: Tariffs may push up US inflation in 1 - 2 quarters, and the inflation elasticity this time may be greater than the previous round [55].