甲醇日评：伊朗港口爆炸事件或影响市场情绪-20250429

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The explosion at an Iranian port over the weekend may affect market sentiment as Iran is a major methanol supplier to China. However, since most methanol is imported from Assalueh and Blk ports which are currently operating normally, the actual impact on methanol imports may be limited. The short - term market sentiment may be slightly bullish, and the report suggests short - term observation [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content a. Price and Profit Data - Methanol Futures Prices: MA01 closed at 2370 yuan/ton on April 28, up 0.72% from April 25; MA05 closed at 2389 yuan/ton, up 0.80%; MA09 closed at 2310 yuan/ton, up 0.96% [1]. - Methanol Spot Prices: In different regions, prices showed various changes. For example, in Shandong, it decreased by 0.40% to 2480 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it dropped by 0.91% to 2170 yuan/ton [1]. - Price Difference: The difference between Taicang spot and MA decreased from 77 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton [1]. - Coal and Natural Gas Prices: Coal and industrial natural gas prices remained unchanged on April 28 compared to April 25 [1]. - Profit Situations: Coal - to - methanol profit decreased by 6.56% to 569.30 yuan/ton; Northwest MTO profit increased by 475.86% to 43.60 yuan/ton; East China MTO profit decreased by 7.50% to - 881.57 yuan/ton. Among downstream products, MTBE profit increased by 115.81% to 205.80 yuan/ton [1]. b. Important Information - Domestic Futures: Methanol's main contract MA2509 rose during the trading day, opening at 2280 yuan/ton, closing at 2310 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 670804 lots and an open interest of 679905 lots [1]. - Foreign Information: All methanol plants in a Middle - Eastern country are operating stably with an 85% operating rate. The estimated loading volume in April is about 600,000 tons, a 103% increase from March, and imports are expected to continue rising in May. Only Bandar Abbas port is affected by the explosion, while Assalueh and Blk ports are normal [1]. c. Trading Strategy - Given the explosion at the Iranian port and the current domestic maintenance period, the report suggests short - term observation as the explosion may impact market sentiment but has limited immediate impact on imports [1].