贵金属日评：美国财政部二季度借款大超预期但扣除债务上限影响后环比减少-20250429

Group 1: Market Data Summary Gold - Shanghai gold futures: On April 28, 2025, the closing price was 780.04, down 7.16 from the previous day and 51.38 from the previous week. The trading volume was 543,425, down 119,247 from the previous day and 329,155 from the previous week. The open interest was 204,671, down 53,099 from the previous week. The inventory was 15,648 kg, unchanged from the previous day and down 30 kg from the previous week [1]. - Shanghai gold spot (Au T+D): The closing price was 778.22 yuan/gram, down 6.71 from the previous day and 48.45 from the previous week. The trading volume was 68,346, up 3,326 from the previous day and down 56,122 from the previous week. The open interest was 217,932, down 7,262 from the previous day and 7,380 from the previous week [1]. - COMEX gold futures: The closing price was 3,354.80, up 24.60 from the previous day and 13.50 from the previous week. The trading volume was 215,264, down 19,751 from the previous day and 20,095 from the previous week. The open interest was 324,294, down 3,356 from the previous day and 29,345 from the previous week. The inventory was 41,705,859.42 troy ounces, unchanged from the previous day and down 1,503,863.55 from the previous week [1]. - London gold spot: The price was 3,277.30 dollars/ounce, unchanged from the previous day and down 28.35 from the previous week [1]. Silver - Shanghai silver futures: The closing price was 8,168.00 yuan/ten grams, down 112.00 from the previous day and 6.00 from the previous week. The trading volume was 642,831, up 4,704 from the previous day and down 308,586 from the previous week. The open interest was 280,886, down 31,364 from the previous day and 58,707 from the previous week. The inventory was 934,421 ten - gram units, up 10,825 from the previous day and 10,693 from the previous week [1]. - Shanghai silver spot (Ag T+D): The closing price was 8,173.00 yuan/ten grams, down 97.00 from the previous day and up 19.00 from the previous week. The trading volume was 471,636, up 50,462 from the previous day and down 307,232 from the previous week. The open interest was 3,578,110, up 4,070 from the previous day and down 104,152 from the previous week [1]. - COMEX silver futures: The closing price was 33.08 dollars/ounce, up 0.05 from the previous day and 0.53 from the previous week. The trading volume was 38,136, down 13,986 from the previous day and 11,451 from the previous week. The open interest was 27,404, down 6,748 from the previous day and 28,611 from the previous week. The inventory was 499,103,540.55 troy ounces, up 1,195,298.48 from the previous week [1]. - London silver spot: The price was 32.31 dollars/ounce, up 1.03 from the previous week [1]. Price Ratios and Other Commodities - Gold - to - silver price ratios: Shanghai gold futures/Shanghai silver futures was 95.07, down 6.22 from the previous week; Shanghai gold spot/Shanghai silver spot was 95.22, down 6.16 from the previous week; New York gold futures/New York silver futures was 101.43, down 1.24 from the previous week; London gold spot/London silver spot was 98.31, down 4.00 from the previous week [1]. - Other commodities: INE crude oil was 498.00 yuan/barrel, up 1.90 from the previous day and 15.30 from the previous week; ICE Brent crude was 64.53 dollars/barrel, down 1.30 from the previous day and 3.32 from the previous week; NYMEX crude was 61.89 dollars/barrel, down 1.28 from the previous day and 1.86 from the previous week; Shanghai copper futures was 77,580.00 yuan/ton, up 140.00 from the previous day and 460.00 from the previous week; LME copper spot was 9,360.00 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day and down 9.00 from the previous week; Shanghai rebar was 3,101.00 yuan/ton, up 28.00 from the previous day and 54.00 from the previous week; Dalian iron ore was 709.00 yuan/ton, up 1.50 from the previous day and down 0.50 from the previous week [1]. Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Indices - Interest rates: Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (SHIBOR) overnight was 1.60%, up 0.04 from the previous day and down 0.11 from the previous week; SHIBOR one - year was 1.77%, unchanged. The US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.2300%, down 0.06 from the previous day and 0.11 from the previous week; the US 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield was 1.9800%, down 0.04 from the previous day and 0.13 from the previous week; the US 10 - year Treasury breakeven inflation rate was 2.2500%, down 0.02 from the previous day and up 0.02 from the previous week [1]. - Exchange rates: The US dollar index was 98.9357, down 0.65 from the previous day and 0.49 from the previous week; the US dollar - to - Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.2043, unchanged; the euro - to - Chinese yuan central parity rate was 8.2125, down 0.01 from the previous day and 0.11 from the previous week [1]. - Stock indices: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3,288.4147, down 6.65 from the previous day and 11.34 from the previous week; the S&P 500 was 5,528.7500, up 3.54 from the previous day and 246.05 from the previous week; the UK FTSE 100 was 8,417.3400, up 2.09 from the previous day and 141.68 from the previous week; the French CAC40 was 7,573.7600, up 37.50 from the previous day and 287.90 from the previous week; the German DAX was 22,271.6700, up 29.22 from the previous day and 1,065.81 from the previous week; the Nikkei 225 was 35,839.9900, up 134.25 from the previous day and 1,462.39 from the previous week; the South Korean Composite Index was 2,548.8600, up 2.56 from the previous day and 78.45 from the previous week [1]. Group 2: Important Information Gold - The US Treasury's Q2 borrowing expectation was significantly raised by over three times, but after excluding the debt - ceiling impact, it decreased. Bessemer has a new bond - issuing strategy: stable short - term bonds, slow long - term bonds, and close attention to stablecoins [1]. - The US Dallas Fed's business activity index in April was - 35.8, lower than the expected - 14.1 and the previous value of - 16.3 [1]. Silver - The US Congress passed a temporary spending bill until September 30. On April 10, an agreement on the budget resolution was reached, including a 5.3 - trillion - dollar tax cut over the next decade, a 5 - billion - dollar increase in the debt ceiling, and a 4 - billion - dollar reduction in government spending. The US Treasury's Q2 borrowing was 51.4 billion dollars, three times higher than expected, but after excluding the debt - ceiling impact, the borrowing demand was lower than expected. The US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicted that the Treasury's funds might be exhausted as early as October, which could slow down the Fed's balance - sheet reduction. The US may reduce the tariff levels on China and other countries, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts in June, September, October, or December [1]. Central Bank Policies - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in April, reducing the deposit mechanism rate to 2.25%. The manufacturing PMIs in the eurozone, Germany, and France in April were 48.7, 48, and 48.2 respectively, higher than expected but lower than the previous values. The annual CPI rates in the eurozone and Germany in August were 2.2% and 2.3% respectively, lower than expected and the previous values. European Central Bank economists predicted a neutral interest rate of 1.75 - 2.25%, suggesting that the ECB may cut interest rates 2 - 3 times before the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of England kept the key interest rate at 4.5% in March and continued to reduce its holdings of 100 billion pounds of government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025. The annual CPI (core CPI) rates in the UK in February were 2.8% (below 3.5%), lower than expected and the previous values. The S&P Global PMI for manufacturing and services in April was 44 and 48.95 respectively, lower than expected and the previous values. The GDP growth rate in January was - 0.1%, lower than expected and the previous value, increasing the expectation of a rate cut in May and potentially 2 - 3 more rate cuts before the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, raising the benchmark rate to 0.5%. It has been reducing the quarterly government - bond purchase scale by 400 billion yen since August 2024. Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru plans to coordinate a 2025 supplementary budget to distribute a 50,000 - yen subsidy per person (with a total scale of nearly 10 trillion yen) and a 2 - trillion - yen tax cut on daily necessities. The annual CPI rates in Tokyo in March and April were 3.6% and 3.5% respectively (lower and higher than expected and the previous values). The largest Japanese labor union, Rengo, achieved an average salary increase of 5.46%. Some Bank of Japan officials hope to raise interest rates to 1% in the second or third quarter, leading to market expectations of a rate hike around July [1]. Group 3: Core View and Trading Strategy - Due to the expectations of interest - rate cuts and fiscal easing by central banks in multiple countries, continuous gold purchases by central banks, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, precious - metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when prices decline. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,150 - 3,250 and the resistance level around 3,500 - 3,700. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 750 - 770 and the resistance level around 850 - 900. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 28 - 30 and the resistance level around 35 - 36. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 7,400 - 7,800/8,000 and the resistance level around 8,600 - 8,900 [1].