综合晨报-20250429

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various commodities and financial products, including energy, metals, chemicals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives, and provides investment suggestions based on their supply - demand situations, price trends, and market sentiment [1][2][3] - It also emphasizes the importance of risk control, especially around the May Day holiday, due to macro - uncertainties and market volatilities [2][34][35] Summaries by Commodity Categories Energy - Crude Oil: After a period of volatility, the oil price has entered a stable state. Demand growth is limited, and supply risks are weakening. It is recommended to hold a low - cost short - option portfolio to hedge against downside risks [1] - Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil: Russian fuel oil shipments have increased, and Singapore's fuel oil inventory is rising. The gasoline crack spread is strengthening, which boosts the low - sulfur fuel oil crack spread. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the strength of the LU contract [20] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: Overseas PG market is supported by chemical demand, but the domestic market is under pressure due to PDH shutdowns and import surpluses. The price is expected to remain volatile [22] - Natural Gas: No relevant content provided. Metals - Precious Metals: Geopolitical tensions and uncertainties in the global political and economic situation support the long - term upward trend of gold prices. The market may be volatile this week, and position control is necessary [2] - Base Metals - Copper: The power outage in the Iberian Peninsula has raised concerns about European grid security. The refined copper market is expected to remain in surplus. It is recommended to hold short positions above 78,000 yuan for the 2507 contract [3] - Aluminum: The inventory of aluminum ingots and bars has decreased rapidly, and the price has rebounded. However, it may face resistance in the 20,000 - 20,300 yuan range [4] - Zinc: As the May Day holiday approaches, market sentiment is cautious. The consumption is weak, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [6] - Lead: The supply and demand of lead are both weak, and the price is expected to oscillate between 16,300 - 17,000 yuan/ton [7] - Nickel & Stainless Steel: The pre - holiday stocking demand has not materialized. The price of nickel is at the end of a rebound, and short - selling opportunities should be monitored [8] - Tin: The downstream replenishment demand before May Day is limited. The price is expected to decline, and short positions should be held [9] - Manganese Silicon: The manganese ore inventory is increasing, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rebounds [17] - Silicon Iron: The demand is weakening, and the inventory is rising. It is recommended to short on rebounds [18] - Ferrous Metals - Iron Ore: The supply is increasing, and the demand is strong in the short term. The price is expected to oscillate, but there may be pressure when iron - water production peaks [14] - Coke: The second price increase was rejected, and the inventory is high. The market is paying attention to the evolution of steel exports [15] - Coking Coal: The output is gradually recovering, but the inventory is high. The price is expected to be weak [16] - Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil: The demand for rebar lacks sustainability, while the supply - demand of hot - rolled coil is stable. The market is waiting for the implementation of policies and the strength of peak - season demand [13] Chemicals - Polycrystalline Silicon: The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to decline [11] - Industrial Silicon: The supply is stable, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [12] - Urea: The supply is high, and the demand is weakening. The supply - demand contradiction may become prominent after the agricultural procurement peak [23] - Methanol: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand will enter the off - season. The supply - demand will gradually turn loose [24] - Styrene: The cost is not supportive, and the supply - demand contradiction may intensify before the May Day holiday [25] - Polypropylene & Plastic: The demand for both is weak, and the market sentiment is bearish [26] - PVC & Caustic Soda: The demand for PVC is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. The demand for caustic soda is also weak, and the price may be low [27] - PX & PTA: The industry supply - demand is improving, but there are potential risks of polyester production cuts. It is recommended to go long on the PTA - crude oil spread [28] - Ethylene Glycol: The supply - demand is stable, and the price is oscillating at a low level. Attention should be paid to the trade situation and oil prices [29] Agricultural Products - Grains - Soybean & Soybean Meal: The supply of soybean meal will shift from tight to loose after the May Day holiday. The futures price is expected to be strong in the short term but may weaken later [34] - Corn: The market is divided, and the price may oscillate downward after the release of grain sources [37] - Oils - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: The soybean supply will increase after the May Day holiday, and the palm oil is in the production - increasing cycle. Risk control is necessary [35] - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: The soybean supply shortage will ease after the May Day holiday. The market is expected to oscillate [36] - Other Agricultural Products - Cotton: The US cotton sales data is average, and the domestic cotton demand has challenges. It is recommended to wait and see [40] - Sugar: The Brazilian new - season supply is expected to be sufficient, and the impact of drought in Guangxi on sugarcane is expected to be limited [41] - Apple: The spot sales are good, and the price may rise. The market is paying attention to the new - season apple production [42] - Egg: The egg price is expected to be weak in the long term due to seasonal factors and increasing production capacity [39] - Pig: The pig supply is expected to increase in the future, and the price may decline [38] Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line): The spot freight rate is expected to be weak, and the 06 contract is under pressure. The 08 contract has policy - related uncertainties [19] - Stock Index: The A - share market is oscillating, and the dividend sector has investment value. Attention should be paid to the rotation between consumption and technology - growth sectors [45] - Treasury Bond: The short - term over - decline repair of the treasury bond market is mostly completed. The price may oscillate in the next month [46]