碳酸锂日评：国内碳酸锂4月供给预期偏松，三元材料厂库存量较上周减少-20250429

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the expected continued loosening of domestic lithium carbonate supply and demand, the lithium carbonate price may be difficult to rise and is likely to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out short positions when the price rebounds, and pay attention to the support level around 33,000 - 60,000 and the resistance level around 70,000 - 75,000 [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Futures and Spot Prices - On April 28, 2025, the closing prices of lithium carbonate futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts decreased compared with April 25, 2025. The trading volume of the active contract increased by 37,558 hands, and the open interest increased by 28,827 hands. The inventory increased by 1,292 tons [1] - The average prices of various lithium ores, lithium compounds, and battery materials decreased to varying degrees from April 22 to April 28, 2025. For example, the average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 950 yuan/ton [1] Industry Projects - Guoxuan High - tech's Guoxuan New Energy Battery Manufacturing Base project started in April 2025. It is expected to be put into operation after completion and commissioning in October, producing 314Ah large - capacity square lithium iron phosphate battery cells and their system integration products for the energy storage field [2] - On April 24, 2025, the first - phase project of Luoyuan Times New Energy Battery Industrial Base officially started. With a total investment of 6.5 billion yuan, it is expected to produce 40GWh of new energy batteries annually after production, with an annual output value of over 10 billion yuan [3] - Tongliao Changtong New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. in Inner Mongolia plans a new energy recycling project. After completion, it will have an annual utilization of 10,000 tons of lithium batteries, dismantle 10,000 tons of batteries, and disassemble 20,000 sets of scrapped wind - power and photovoltaic units, and build an energy storage project [3] Supply and Demand Analysis - Tianqi Lithium's Greenbushes mine's 30,000 - ton wet - process project may be put into production in October 2025, which may lead to a decline in the price of domestic lithium ores and an increase in production or imports in May [4] - The production of lithium carbonate in China's industry and battery sectors may increase in May, and the supply is expected to be loose. Some production lines will be under maintenance, and new production capacities will be put into operation [4] - The production and inventory of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other products in China may change in May. For example, the inventory of lithium carbonate in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and the social inventory of lithium carbonate may increase [4][5] Market Trends and Trading Strategies - Downstream procurement willingness for cobalt, manganese, and other products is low, affecting production and sales. The processing fees of ternary precursors and materials have decreased, and production profits are negative in some cases [5] - The demand for energy storage power stations is gradually recovering, and the production, shipment, and inventory of energy storage batteries, power cells, and lithium batteries may increase in May and June [5] - Due to the expected continued loosening of domestic lithium carbonate supply and demand, it is recommended that investors mainly lay out short positions when the price rebounds [5]