深城交（301091）：24年订单高增，期待低空业务放量

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 44.86 RMB [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in new contracts in 2024, with a total of 2.58 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 49%, particularly in new infrastructure and operational services [4]. - The company is expected to benefit from the expansion in the low-altitude economy sector, with over 300 million RMB in orders on hand by the end of 2024 [4]. - Despite a decline in overall revenue and net profit for 2024, the company is optimistic about future growth driven by hardware and operational developments in the low-altitude economy [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenues and net profit of 1.32 billion RMB and 110 million RMB, respectively, down 7.3% and 34.7% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 improved to 19.4%, a 10.0 percentage point increase year-on-year, indicating a recovery trend [2]. Business Segments - The company's big data software and smart transportation segments saw revenue growth of 27.1% in 2024, while engineering design and consulting services experienced declines of 31.8% and 30.3%, respectively [2]. - The gross margins for these segments were 25.4%, 41.3%, and 42.6%, with a noted decline attributed to increased costs in integrated services and hardware [2]. Cost Management - The management expense ratio decreased to 21.6% in 2024, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to optimized employee structure and reduced compensation [3]. - The company recorded credit and asset impairment losses of 8 million RMB and 1 million RMB, respectively, but expects improvements in accounts receivable and cash collection in 2025 [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 2.04 billion RMB, 2.53 billion RMB, and 3.10 billion RMB, reflecting a downward revision of 9% and 11% [5]. - The target price is set at 44.86 RMB, based on a valuation of 13x PS and 25x PE for the company's big data software and smart transportation segments [5].