杭氧股份（002430）：一季报业绩超预期，期待工业气体龙头周期底部向上

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 3.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, and a net profit of 230 million yuan, up 10.8% year-on-year. The gross margin improved by 1.6 percentage points to 21.5% [1] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the industrial gas sector, benefiting from both defensive and offensive attributes, with expectations for a recovery in the gas industry following a challenging 2024 [2] - The company has a strong growth trajectory driven by demand growth, market share expansion, and improved profitability, with long-term profit potential expected to increase several times [2][3] Summary by Sections Q1 Performance - Revenue reached 3.56 billion yuan, a 7.9% increase year-on-year - Net profit was 230 million yuan, reflecting a 10.8% year-on-year growth - Gross margin stood at 21.5%, up 1.6 percentage points, while net margin improved to 7% [1] Orders and Contracts - As of the end of Q1, the company's contract liabilities were 2.84 billion yuan, down 10.3% year-on-year - The company won a bid for a coal-to-olefins project in Xinjiang, which includes two air separation units with a total capacity of 220,000 m³/h [1] Growth Drivers - The company is expected to benefit from stable growth in pipeline gas, which is less affected by macroeconomic fluctuations, and aims to increase its market share in the third-party gas supply market significantly [2] - The retail gas segment is positioned for potential growth as gas prices are at historical lows, with significant upside if the economy recovers [2] - The company is the leading domestic manufacturer of air separation equipment, with expectations for steady performance driven by demand from coal chemical projects and overseas markets [3] Financial Forecast - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.067 billion, 1.298 billion, and 1.513 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 22%, and 17% respectively [4]