Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical (SH:603599) HTSC·2025-04-29 07:10Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Accumulate" with a target price of 12.35 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.64 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 21%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 780 million RMB, down 46% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a net profit of 200 million RMB, which was an increase of 77% year-on-year and 26% quarter-on-quarter. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.27 RMB per share for 2024, with a payout ratio of 32% [1][2]. - The agricultural chemical prices are currently in a bottom consolidation phase, and there is an expectation for improvement in market conditions in the future, leading to a maintained "Accumulate" rating [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's main agricultural chemical revenue was 2.18 billion RMB, down 9% year-on-year, with a sales volume of 85,000 tons, up 37% year-on-year, and an average price of 26,000 RMB per ton, down 34% year-on-year. The overall gross margin decreased by 7.1 percentage points to 30.7% due to market demand issues and increased shipping costs [2][3]. - For Q1 2025, the main agricultural chemical revenue was 480 million RMB, up 8% year-on-year, with an average price increase of 14% to 32,000 RMB per ton. The main agricultural intermediate revenue was 450 million RMB, down 4% year-on-year, with a sales volume increase of 34% to 215,000 tons [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards to 860 million RMB and 980 million RMB, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 16% and 27%. The net profit for 2027 is projected to be 1.11 billion RMB, with expected growth rates of 11%, 14%, and 13% for 2025 to 2027 [4][6]. - The estimated EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.95 RMB, 1.08 RMB, and 1.22 RMB, respectively. The company is given a valuation of 13 times PE for 2025, leading to a target price of 12.35 RMB [4][6].