有色金属周报（铅）：成本支撑与需求偏弱相博弈，铅价区间整理-20250429

Report Information - Report Title: Nonferrous Metals Weekly (Lead) - Cost Support vs. Weak Demand, Lead Price Ranges Consolidate [1] - Report Date: April 29, 2025 [1] - Research Institute: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Views - The global lead concentrate supply is expected to increase in the long - term, but there is short - term uncertainty, with the mine end in tight balance and stable TC. Tight scrap battery supply strongly supports lead prices [2]. - Primary lead production increases as previously - shut - down smelters resume operations, while secondary lead production decreases significantly due to raw material shortages and high costs. This supports lead prices, but the off - season consumption and approaching May Day holiday limit price increases. The lead price is expected to range between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton, with attention to raw material and macro factors [2]. - Lead batteries for electric bicycles and cars are in the off - season. Distributors mainly make just - in - time purchases and consume existing inventories. Producers are cautious in buying lead ingots, preferring low - priced sources [2]. - Secondary lead producers hold back inventory due to cost pressure and losses, while primary lead holders actively sell and reduce premiums at the end of the month and before the May Day holiday, leading to a decrease in social inventory [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Price Changes: SMM1 lead ingot average price rose 0.45% to 16,875 yuan/ton; Shanghai lead main contract closing price rose 0.30% to 16,845 yuan/ton; London lead closing price (electronic trading) rose 1.20% to 1,945 US dollars/ton [14]. - Basis: Data on the basis between different contracts (e.g., continuous one - continuous two) is presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the summary part [15]. 2. Primary Lead Production Changes - TC and Smelter Profit: Domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained at 650 yuan/metal ton, and imported lead concentrate processing fee at - 20 US dollars/dry ton. Smelter profit (excluding by - product revenue) reached 28.23 yuan/ton as of April 18 [27]. - Production Capacity and Output: The primary lead production capacity utilization rate increased by 2.98 percentage points to 66.23%. The weekly output of deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises increased in some regions due to the resumption of previously - shut - down production in Henan, while some maintenance was postponed [28][36]. 3. Secondary Lead Production Changes - Scrap Battery Price and Profit: As of April 25, the average scrap battery price was 10,400 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton. Tight supply led to price increases and strong hoarding sentiment. Large - scale secondary lead enterprises had a comprehensive profit of - 563 yuan/ton, and small - and medium - scale enterprises had - 794 yuan/ton [45][51]. - Inventory and Production: Secondary lead raw material inventory decreased to 129,600 tons, and finished product inventory increased to 12,740 tons as of April 25. The secondary lead enterprise production capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.28 percentage points to 61.18%, and weekly production declined [54][55]. 4. Consumption - Battery Production Capacity Utilization: The lead - acid battery production capacity utilization rate increased by 1.06 percentage points to 73.56%. Despite the off - season, overall production remained high, and producers preferred deeply - discounted lead ingots [64]. 5. Import and Export - Profit Window: As of April 17, refined lead export suffered a loss of about 2,600 yuan/ton. As of April 28, the import profit was - 545.42 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [76]. 6. Inventory - Domestic Social Inventory: As of April 24, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 46,200 tons, showing a decrease. The preference for primary lead in downstream purchases led to inventory reduction, but the process may slow down during the May Day holiday [86]. - Exchange Inventory: As of April 25, SHFE refined lead inventory was 45,700 tons, showing a decrease; LME inventory was 274,100 tons, also decreasing [91]. - Monthly Supply - Demand Balance: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows data on primary lead production, secondary lead production, exports, imports, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and comprehensive inventory from January 2024 to March 2025 [92].