贵金属数据日报-20250429

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Tariff easing and the possibility of Russia - Ukraine negotiations may suppress gold prices, but due to tariff policy uncertainty, the continuous decline space of gold prices is limited after last week's sharp adjustment. Gold prices are expected to enter a high - level range oscillation in the short term. It is recommended that investors hold light positions during the May Day holiday and wait and see. The medium - long - term upward logic of gold remains unchanged. For silver, tariff negotiation expectations support its commodity attribute, and with some short - selling of gold - silver ratio configurations, silver is relatively resilient, but its upside space is limited due to economic downturn risks and the slowdown of physical demand [4]. - Medium - long - term: Against the backdrop of the global tariff trade war, the risk of economic recession increases, the Fed may cut interest rates in June, geopolitical uncertainties are high, and tariff policies will weaken the US dollar credit. Global central banks continue to buy gold, so gold still has medium - long - term allocation value, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Tracking - On April 28, 2025, compared with April 25, 2025, London gold spot decreased by 0.6%, London silver spot decreased by 1.9%, COMEX gold decreased by 0.6%, COMEX silver decreased by 2.0%, AU2506 decreased by 0.9%, AG2506 decreased by 1.4%, AU (T + D) decreased by 0.8%, and AG (T + D) decreased by 1.4% [3]. - Regarding spreads/ratios, from April 25 to April 28, 2025, the change rates of gold TD - SHFE active spread, silver TD - SHFE active spread, gold internal - external spread (TD - London), silver internal - external spread (TD - London), SHFE gold - silver main ratio, COMEX gold - silver main ratio, AU2508 - 2506, and AG2508 - 2506 were - 47.0%, 25.0%, - 7.4%, - 11.2%, 0.4%, 1.5%, - 8.7%, and - 4.8% respectively [3]. Position Data - From April 24 to April 25, 2025, gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 0.24%, silver ETF - SLV decreased by 0.03%, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions decreased by 4.72%, non - commercial short positions increased by 20.17%, net long positions decreased by 13.27%, COMEX silver non - commercial long positions decreased by 0.58%, non - commercial short positions decreased by 5.45%, and net long positions increased by 1.77% [3]. Inventory Data - From April 25 to April 28, 2025, SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged (0.00% change), SHFE silver inventory increased by 1.17%. From April 24 to April 25, 2025, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.58%, and COMEX silver inventory increased by 0.03% [3]. Related Market Data - From April 25 to April 28, 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.03%, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate increased by 0.30%, the US dollar index decreased by 0.80%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.69%, VIX decreased by 6.16%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.74%, and NYMEX crude oil increased by 0.64% [4]. News and Analysis - Trump said he would announce a trade agreement in the "next three to four weeks", and US officials have a template for tariff negotiations. Russia and the US envoy confirmed that Russia is willing to negotiate with Ukraine without pre - conditions [4]. - In the first quarter of 2025, China's domestic gold ETF holdings increased by 23.47 tons, a year - on - year increase of 327.73%, reaching 138.21 tons by the end of March [4]. - On April 28, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 1.44% to 780.04 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 1.52% to 8168 yuan/kilogram [4].