航运衍生品数据日报-20250429

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The spot freight rate on the European route has been continuously sluggish, with three consecutive price increases failing from March to May due to weak fundamentals. The average freight rate in early May fell below $2000. Although the loading rate at the end of the month was good, the high capacity deployment at the end of April did not lead to a significant improvement in freight rates. It is difficult to raise prices in May as a whole. Usually, freight rates enter the peak season in May, but this year it is expected to lose one - month's price increase slope, and short - term spot freight rates may fluctuate slightly [11]. - The demand on the US route shows resilience, with high trans - shipment demand from Southeast Asia, Japan, and South Korea. The US is at the bottom of the inventory and transportation cycle, and the freight rate is gradually recovering, with the supply - demand situation turning around. However, due to the variable US tariff policy, the peak season on the US route is expected to be postponed [11]. - About 10 additional vessels were transferred from the US route to the European route in May, which may be a one - time adjustment, only impacting the supply on the European route in May. As it takes 3 - 4 months for a round - trip on the European route, it is difficult for the vessels to return to Asia before the peak season, which may lead to a shortage of vessels during the peak season on the US route and push up the peak - season freight rate center on the European and US routes [11]. - After the continuous decline in the futures market, there is no need to panic excessively. The fundamentals are forming an inflection point in late April and May, but the inflection point is not achieved overnight. The peak - season contracts are still bullish at the current level, and investors with relatively high risk tolerance can choose to buy at low prices. Given the variable macro - policies, most investors prefer to wait and see, and it is recommended to reasonably control positions and avoid risks before holidays [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Derivatives Data - Freight Rate Index: The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1348, 1112, 2141, 1230, 3257, 1260, 1429, and 2129 respectively. The corresponding previous values are 1370, 1111, 2103, 1368, 3251, 1316, 1508, and 2161 respectively, with the respective changes of - 1.62%, 0.13%, 1.81%, - 10.09%, 0.18%, - 4.26%, - 5.24%, and - 1.48% [4]. - Contract Data: For contracts EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2504, the current values are 1385.0, 1570.8, 1300.7, 1466.8, 1315.2, and 1442.0 respectively. The previous values are 1365.1, 1613.0, 1304.9, 1476.1, 1312.0, and 1440.6 respectively, with the respective changes of 1.46%, - 2.62%, - 0.32%, - 0.63%, 0.24%, and 0.10% [4]. - Position Data: The current positions of EC2506, EC2508, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, and EC2504 are 39636, 32405, 16078, 4018, 2707, and 860 respectively. The previous positions are 40348, 31861, 16123, 4056, 2714, and 875 respectively, with the respective changes of - 712, 544, - 45, - 38, - 7, and - 15 [4]. - Monthly Spread Data: The current values of spreads 4 - 6, 6 - 8, and 8 - 10 are 57.0, - 185.8, and 270.1 respectively. The previous values are 75.5, - 247.9, and 308.1 respectively, with the respective changes of - 18.5, 62.1, and - 38.0 [4]. 3.2 Market News - The Trump administration is considering multiple tariff - adjustment plans. One plan may reduce the tariff rate on Chinese goods to about 15% - 65%, and the other "graded plan" will divide Chinese goods into two categories, with tariff rates of 35% and at least 100% respectively [5]. - US Treasury Secretary Bentsen said that China's exemption shows its hope to de - escalate the trade situation, the negotiations with Asian trading partners are progressing smoothly, the US government is in contact with China on all fronts, and India may be one of the first countries to sign a trade agreement with the US [6][7][8]. 3.3 Spot Freight Rate Situation - After the price - increase attempts in March and April failed, the major shipping companies' coordinated price - increase in late April was also ineffective. Maersk's price for the second half of May is $1450, and it maintains $1600 in the first half of May. OOCL's price in the first half of May dropped to $1700, and CMA's announced price increase of $4500 in May has dropped to $2145 as the booking window approaches. HPL and ONE have also lowered their May quotes, and COSCO still uses $1925 offline. It is expected that the price in the first half of May will be between $1800 - $2000 [9]. 3.4 Political Situation - The trade tariff war between the US and China has cast a pessimistic shadow over the future economy and trade volume. Currently, both sides are in a stage of accumulating chips and playing games. US Treasury Secretary Bentsen said that the current tariffs are unsustainable, but the negotiation process is long, and it may take 2 - 3 years to reach a comprehensive trade agreement. Trump also said that he will not lower the tariffs on China unless China gives the US some benefits [10].