有色金属周报（工业硅、多晶硅）：情绪较差，重心下移-20250429

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The silicon market's supply - demand imbalance remains unimproved, with short - term prices lacking positive drivers. Industrial silicon is expected to maintain a weak and volatile consolidation in the range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton, and the strategy is to short on rebounds. As the southwest production area enters the flat - water period, attention should be paid to the resumption of production of local silicon enterprises. For polysilicon, due to the strong expectation of weakening terminal demand, the price decline in the industrial chain is transmitted from the bottom up. It is expected to have a short - term weak and volatile consolidation in the range of 36,500 - 38,500 yuan/ton [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Price Review - Futures and Spot Prices: The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract increased by 0.29% to 8,780 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon futures main contract rose by 2.06% to 38,390 yuan/ton. However, most industrial silicon spot prices declined, such as the不通氧553 in East China dropping by 2.58% to 9,450 yuan/ton. Polysilicon prices also generally decreased, with N - type material down 3.80% to 38.00 yuan/kg [8]. - Raw Material Prices: Silicon stone procurement did not improve, and prices were weakly stable. During the dry season, the electricity cost of southwest silicon enterprises was at a high level. Electrode prices remained stable, with silicon coal showing minor fluctuations and petroleum coke prices trending weakly [14][20][25]. - Product Profit: In March, the average profit of national industrial silicon 553 was - 1,622 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 177 yuan/ton, while the 421 average profit was - 1,782 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 247 yuan/ton [35]. - Production and Supply: The number of open furnaces was relatively stable, with a total of 797 furnaces and 219 open furnaces last week, a decrease of 3 compared to the previous value. Some silicon enterprises postponed their resumption plans. In March, the polysilicon output was 96,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,000 tons but a year - on - year decrease of 74,900 tons. Some polysilicon enterprises may delay resumption or reduce production in May [36][64]. - Downstream Demand: Downstream demand was weak. Polysilicon plants maintained a large - scale production reduction. Organic silicon prices hit a new low, and most manufacturers reduced production. The silicon - aluminum alloy started with minor fluctuations, and the demand for industrial silicon was mainly for rigid procurement. The demand for photovoltaic components was weak, with a significant reduction in forward orders and a downward trend in prices [3][83][100]. - Inventory Situation: As of April 27, the total polysilicon inventory was 259,000 tons. The social inventory of industrial silicon remained at a high level, with a short - term de - stocking pressure [3][117]. 2. Sub - industry Analysis - Polysilicon: The industry continued to reduce production. Some enterprises may delay resumption or reduce production in May due to the downward price trend. The inventory was at a high level [62][64]. - Silicon Wafer: Due to weak demand, the prices of all sizes of silicon wafers decreased, and there was a strong expectation of production reduction [68]. - Battery Chip: The market sentiment was weak, and prices were expected to continue to decline [71]. - Component: Forward orders decreased, and prices were prone to fall but difficult to rise [74]. - Organic Silicon: Some manufacturers carried out maintenance, resulting in a reduction in supply. The supply - demand contradiction was prominent, and prices hit a new low. Although the downstream purchasing enthusiasm improved slightly later, the supply - demand imbalance still existed [83][88]. - Silicon - Aluminum Alloy: The start - up rate fluctuated slightly, and prices showed a minor increase. As of April 25, the ADC12 average price was 20,600 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged month - on - month, and the A356 average price was 20,500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.99% [100][105].