新洋丰（000902）：一季度销量强劲增长，毛利率仍存修复空间

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 4.668 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 39.98%, with a net profit of 515 million yuan, up 49.61% year-over-year [3]. - The sales volume of compound fertilizers grew by approximately 35% year-over-year, marking the highest sales volume for the same period in the company's history, laying a solid foundation for achieving annual sales targets [3]. - The overall gross margin improved by 0.19 percentage points to 18.17% in Q1, indicating potential for further recovery in gross margins for compound fertilizers [3]. - The company has focused on expanding the market for new fertilizers, with sales increasing from 548,500 tons in 2018 to 1.38 million tons in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 16.63% [4]. - The proportion of new fertilizers in total compound fertilizer sales rose from 16.56% in 2018 to 31.67% in 2024, contributing to an increase in overall gross margins [4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.47 billion yuan, 1.68 billion yuan, and 1.91 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 1.15 yuan, 1.31 yuan, and 1.49 yuan [5][6]. - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 12, 10, and 9 times, respectively [5][10]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 15.10 billion yuan in 2023 to 20.51 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10.11% [6][11]. Company Overview - The company is a leading producer of phosphate fertilizers in China, with a production capacity of 10.28 million tons per year for various high-concentration phosphate fertilizers and 900,000 tons per year for phosphate rock [7]. - The company has expanded its business into related fields such as new materials and phosphogypsum building materials [7].