Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - The supply of soybean meal is expected to improve, with significant drops in spot prices and basis, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly. Considering the low valuation and support from import costs, it is recommended to go long on contract 109 at low prices [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Basis Data - Basis data for the soybean meal main contract in various regions (Dalian, Tianjin, etc.) on April 28 are presented, along with historical basis data from 2019/20 to 2024/25 [3] - Basis data for rapeseed meal in Guangdong are also provided, including historical data from 2018/19 to 2024/25 [3] Spread Data - Spot and futures spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong are shown, along with historical spread data from 2018/19 to 2024/25 [4] International Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 7.2995, and the soybean CNF premium and import soybean crushing margin data are presented [4] Inventory Data - Data on the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills, soybean inventory at Chinese ports, soybean meal inventory of major domestic oil mills, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises are provided, showing trends from 2020 to 2025 [4] 开机 and压榨情况 - Data on the operating rate and soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills are presented, showing trends from 2020 to 2025 [4] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply side: Spot supply is tight, customs clearance time has been extended in some areas, a large amount of Brazilian soybeans are expected to arrive in May and June, the planting area of new US soybeans is expected to shrink further, and recent rainfall in US soybean - growing areas may improve soil moisture but delay the sowing progress [4] - Demand side: Pig supply is expected to increase steadily before September, the inventory of meat and egg poultry is expected to remain high in the first half of the year, the cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased significantly recently, wheat has replaced corn in some areas, reducing the demand for protein, and the downstream trading and pick - up performance is poor [4][5] - Inventory: Domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level, soybean meal inventory is at a very low level and is expected to gradually recover, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has decreased to a low level, with an expected improvement in restocking willingness [5]
蛋白数据日报-20250429
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-04-29 08:36