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食品饮料周报:政治局会议定调积极,看好饮料旺季催化-20250429
Tianfeng Securities·2025-04-29 08:46

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform" (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a positive outlook for the beverage sector, driven by the upcoming peak season and supportive macroeconomic policies from the central government [2][12] - The report emphasizes the potential for valuation recovery in the liquor sector, particularly in light of the recent political bureau meeting that indicated a more proactive fiscal and monetary policy [2][12] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - For the week of April 21 to April 25, the food and beverage sector declined by 1.36%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.38%. Notable performances included snacks (+4.50%) and soft drinks (+2.21%), while categories like beer (-0.72%) and health products (-1.28%) saw declines [1][19] Weekly Perspective Updates - Liquor Sector: The liquor sector saw a decline of 1.75%, attributed to the off-peak consumption period and inventory adjustments. However, the upcoming May Day holiday is expected to boost demand for banquet scenarios, aiding in inventory reduction [2][12] - Beer and Beverage Sector: The beer sector decreased by 0.72%, but companies like Zhujiang Brewery saw a 5.7% increase in stock price due to better-than-expected Q1 performance. The report anticipates improved demand as the weather warms and consumption policies are implemented [3][13] - Consumer Goods Sector: The report identifies opportunities in the snack sector, with a focus on companies that have shown resilience and potential for growth. The upcoming sales season for soft drinks is also highlighted as a catalyst for growth [3][14] Investment Recommendations - Liquor Sector: Recommended stocks include strong alpha leaders like Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as cyclical stocks like Luzhou Laojiao and Jiugui Liquor [4][18] - Consumer Goods: The report recommends focusing on snacks and dairy products, with specific mentions of companies like Ganyuan Foods and Yuyuan Foods, which are expected to benefit from low base effects in Q2 [4][18] Sector and Individual Stock Performance - The report provides detailed performance metrics for various sectors, indicating that the snack and soft drink sectors are currently outperforming others, while the liquor sector is under pressure [19][22]