Monalisa(SZ:002918) Changjiang Securities·2025-04-29 08:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company achieved an annual revenue of 4.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 120 million yuan, down 53% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was approximately 100 million yuan, down 58% year-on-year [2][4]. - In the first quarter, the company reported a revenue of 700 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 16%, with a net profit of -60 million yuan, a decrease of 715% year-on-year, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of approximately -70 million yuan, down 870% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of approximately 200 million yuan and 250 million yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to valuations of 18 and 15 times [6]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to decline by 22% due to weak terminal demand and intensified price competition, with tile sales expected to drop by 16% to approximately 120 million square meters. The average price of tiles is anticipated to decrease by about 7% year-on-year, cumulatively down 19% compared to 2021 [10]. - The gross margin is expected to continue its downward trend, decreasing from 29.5% in 2023 to 27.3% in 2024, with the distribution channel gross margin declining from 28.3% to 25.7% [10]. - The company’s revenue from distribution channels is expected to be around 3.5 billion yuan, down 7% year-on-year, while revenue from engineering channels is projected to be about 1.1 billion yuan, down 48% year-on-year [10]. Cost and Expenses - The company’s period expense ratio is expected to increase by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, with management expenses rising by 1.9 percentage points due to weakened scale effects, while financial expenses are expected to decrease by 1.3 percentage points [10]. - The net profit margin for 2024 is projected to be approximately 2.7%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [10]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The company has shown strong cash flow performance, with cash collection ratios over the past three years being 1.12, 1.08, and 1.15. The cash flow from operating activities for 2024 is expected to be 810 million yuan [10]. - By the end of 2024, accounts receivable and notes are expected to be 700 million yuan, primarily due to a high retail proportion and a continuous contraction in the real estate business [10]. Industry Outlook - The supply exit in the tile industry is significant, with the production of building ceramics expected to be around 5.91 billion square meters in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 12% [10]. - The number of large-scale enterprises in the industry has decreased from 1,048 in 2021 to 993 in 2024, with approximately 55 enterprises exiting the market [10].