Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-04-29 09:35Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - V2509 fluctuates weakly, closing at 4,949 yuan/ton. The supply - side PVC capacity utilization rate increased by 1.29% week - on - week to 78.63% last week. The demand - side downstream PVC start - up rate increased by 0.07% week - on - week to 48.16%, with the pipe start - up rate up 0.62% to 49.06% and the profile start - up rate stable at 39.9%. As of April 24, PVC social inventory decreased by 5.15% to 68.77 million tons, maintaining a destocking trend. The spring inspection intensity of PVC in April was less than in previous years. This week, affected by the restart of Bohua and Xinjiang Zhongtai plants, the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to rise. PVC floor enterprises are affected by tariffs and stop production for observation, and the demand for pipes and profiles is dragged down by the weak real - estate situation. During the May Day holiday, some downstream enterprises will take holidays and stop production, leading to an expected inventory build - up for PVC. V2509 has support around 4,900 yuan/ton and resistance around 5,050 yuan/ton [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4,949 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the trading volume is 628,494 lots, down 93,658 lots; the open interest is 925,138 lots, up 14,879 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 735,797 lots, down 11,471 lots; the short position is 800,257 lots, down 11,778 lots; the net long position is - 64,460 lots, up 307 lots [3] 2. Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,075 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4,818.46 yuan/ton, up 9.23 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,070 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4,875 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 US dollars/ton (unchanged), in Southeast Asia is 670 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 785 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The basis of PVC is - 169 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2,850 yuan/ton (unchanged), in North China is 2,806.67 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Northwest China is 2,588 yuan/ton (unchanged). The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is 50.5 yuan/ton (unchanged). The VCM CFR Far East mid - price is 529 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars; the VCM CFR Southeast Asia mid - price is 546 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars. The EDC CFR Far East mid - price is 201 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the EDC CFR Southeast Asia mid - price is 211 US dollars/ton (unchanged) [3] 4. Industry Situation - The weekly start - up rate of PVC is 78.63%, up 1.28 percentage points; the start - up rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 78.64%, down 0.71 percentage points; the start - up rate of ethylene - based PVC is 78.61%, up 6.52 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 42.06 million tons, down 2.08 million tons; the total social inventory in East China is 38.12 million tons, down 1.4 million tons; the total social inventory in South China is 3.94 million tons, down 0.68 million tons [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The National Real Estate Climate Index is 93.96, up 0.16. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 12,996.46 million square meters, up 6,382.46 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area is 613,705.44 million square meters, up 7,733.44 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment is 110.0202 billion yuan, up 48.9131 billion yuan [3] 6. Options Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 15.84%, up 0.03 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 14.52%, down 0.12 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.59%, up 0.25 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 21.58%, up 0.24 percentage points [3] 7. Industry News - On April 29, the cash - on - delivery price of Changzhou PVC SG5 in the warehouse decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, with the price ranging from 4,720 to 4,860 yuan/ton. From April 19 to 25, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 78.63%, up 1.29% week - on - week. As of April 24, the PVC social inventory (41 samples) decreased by 5.15% week - on - week to 68.77 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.77% [3]