Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-04-29 09:35Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - L2509 oscillated weakly, closing at 7,122 yuan/ton. In the short term, L2509 is expected to oscillate weakly, with support around 7,000 yuan/ton. The supply side may see a slight increase in production and capacity utilization rate. The demand side is expected to be weak, and polyethylene faces significant inventory accumulation pressure during the May Day holiday. The cost side is affected by factors such as OPEC+ potential production increase and falling international oil prices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polyethylene futures contract was 7,122 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan; the trading volume was 261,574 lots, down 20,387 lots; the open interest was 490,656 lots, up 8,592 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was -74,785 lots, down 10,863 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7,453.18 yuan/ton, up 9.09 yuan; in East China, it was 7,431.71 yuan/ton, up 17.56 yuan. The basis was 289.19 yuan, down 27.64 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 62.71 US dollars/barrel, down 0.41 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 578 US dollars/ton, down 3.75 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 871 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it was 791 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate was 83.75%, down 0.06 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film was 48.81%, up 1.25 percentage points; the operating rate of PE pipes was 31.83%, up 0.33 percentage points; the operating rate of PE agricultural film was 26.09%, down 4 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 22.15%, down 0.02 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 16.26%, unchanged. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 13.65%, down 0.27 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 13.67%, down 0.27 percentage points [2] Industry News - From April 18th to 24th, China's polyethylene production totaled 642,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.42%. The average operating rate of polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.01% compared with the previous period. As of April 29th, the inventory of polyethylene production enterprises was 414,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.31%; as of April 25th, the inventory of polyethylene social sample warehouses was 599,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.97% [2]