Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The SH2509 contract of caustic soda is expected to fluctuate weakly, with support around 2400 yuan/ton. The supply side may see an increase in capacity utilization due to the resumption of 300,000 - ton capacity of Bohua and the expanded impact of previously restarted devices. However, on the demand side, the consumption of caustic soda by alumina enterprises is expected to decline continuously, and non - aluminum downstream replenishment is ending with resistance to high prices. During the National Day, some downstream enterprises will take holidays and stop production, leading to inventory accumulation pressure on liquid caustic soda, and some enterprises may reduce prices before the festival to sell goods [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda futures is 2431 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the futures trading volume is 417,774 lots, up 94,702 lots; the futures open interest is 183,515 lots, down 19,631 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 12,487 lots, up 9,923 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2413 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the closing price of the May contract is 2410 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 780 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 930 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2437.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda is 7 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 240 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal is 679 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is - 75 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,460 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina is 2860 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From April 18th to 24th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.1%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2%. As of April 24th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 408,500 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 3.02% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.77% [3]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - Supply: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of chlor - alkali plants decreased by 0.2% to 82.1%. This week, the 300,000 - ton capacity of Bohua will resume production, and the impact of previously restarted devices will expand, which is expected to drive the capacity utilization rate to increase week - on - week [3]. - Demand: The domestic alumina enterprises are reducing production or conducting planned flexible production, and the consumption of caustic soda by alumina is expected to decline continuously. The restocking of non - aluminum downstream is ending, and there is resistance to high prices. During the National Day, some downstream enterprises will take holidays and stop production [3]. - Inventory: Last week, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories decreased by 3.02% to 408,500 tons, still at a relatively high level in the same period. The liquid caustic soda inventory is facing the pressure of inventory accumulation, and some enterprises may reduce prices before the festival to sell goods [3].
瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20250429