Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-04-29 09:49Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the I2509 contract fluctuated weakly. The central bank has created new structural monetary policy tools and may cut reserve - requirement ratios and interest rates in a timely manner. In terms of supply and demand, the shipment and arrival volumes of Australian and Brazilian iron ore have increased this period, and domestic port inventories have changed from decreasing to increasing, with an expected increase in supply. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills has been slightly adjusted upwards, and hot metal production has increased by 4230 tons. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are operating below the 0 - axis. It is recommended to conduct intraday short - term trading, hold light positions during the holiday, and pay attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 709 yuan/ton, down 1.50 yuan; the position volume is 638,601 lots, down 2688 lots. The I 5 - 9 contract spread is 55 yuan/ton, up 2.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is 9471 lots, down 3934 lots. The Dalian Commodity Exchange's iron ore warehouse receipts are 3200 lots, unchanged. The Singapore iron ore main contract is quoted at 98.55 US dollars/ton at 15:00, up 0.14 US dollars [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 829 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 805 yuan/dry ton, down 1 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port is 685 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) is 96 yuan, unchanged. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 99.40 US dollars/ton, up 0.20 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 3.40, unchanged. The estimated import cost is 839 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The weekly shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore is 27.584 million tons, up 3.207 million tons; the weekly arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports is 26.796 million tons, up 2.304 million tons. The weekly inventory at 45 ports is 142.61 million tons, up 2.05 million tons; the weekly inventory of sample steel mills is 90.7303 million tons, up 0.2011 million tons. The monthly iron ore import volume is 93.97 million tons, down 0.24 million tons. The available days of iron ore are 23 days, up 5 days. The daily output of 266 mines is 396,300 tons, down 11,400 tons; the operating rate is 63.06%, down 1.46 percentage points. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines is 652,600 tons, down 52,800 tons. The BDI index is 1403, up 30. The freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 19.67 US dollars/ton, up 0.22 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 7.84 US dollars/ton, up 0.09 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 84.35%, up 0.77 percentage points; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 91.62%, up 1.49 percentage points. The monthly domestic crude steel output is 92.84 million tons, up 16.87 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 26.78%, down 0.48 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 23.18%, down 0.77 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 25.99%, up 2.08 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 25.53%, up 2.60 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From April 21 to April 27, 2025, the total shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 27.584 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.207 million tons. The Australian shipment was 19.952 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.96 million tons, and the amount shipped to China was 16.472 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.729 million tons. The Brazilian shipment was 7.632 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.246 million tons. From April 21 to April 27, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 26.796 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.304 million tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 25.128 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.875 million tons; the total arrival volume at the six northern ports was 11.593 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.343 million tons [2].