黑色产业数据每日监测-20250429

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report Affected by the domestic economy and global trade frictions, steel demand is weak. Although there is a certain restocking demand before the May Day holiday, concerns about the future still exist. Although domestic policies are temporarily supportive but not aggressive, the probability of subsequent efforts still exists. The industry supply and demand has entered a seasonal weakening state. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the post - holiday rebound ends [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - On April 29, black - series commodity futures except iron ore fell across the board. The rebar closed at 3,100 yuan/ton, down 1.21%; the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3,210 yuan/ton, down 1.26%; the iron ore main contract closed at 709 yuan/ton, up 0.28%; coking coal and coke continued to decline [1]. Market Analysis - International trade: On April 24, South Korea imposed a four - month temporary anti - dumping duty on hot - rolled carbon or alloy steel medium and heavy plates originating from China, with a tax rate of 27.91 - 38.02% until August 23, 2025. Brazil made an affirmative preliminary anti - dumping ruling on color - coated sheets originating from China and India but did not recommend imposing a temporary anti - dumping duty. Canada launched an anti - dumping investigation into carbon steel wires and alloy steel wires originating from or imported from China, India and other countries. Multiple countries' increase in import tariffs on Chinese steel and anti - dumping investigations have impacted the "price - for - volume" model of net exports, and manufacturing demand has been revised down due to tariff adjustments [1]. - Domestic policy: After the recent Politburo meeting, no super - expected policies were released, and China will enter a policy window period before the May Day holiday [1]. - Supply side: Last week, the profitability rate of 247 long - process steel mills reached 57.58%, a five - month high. Steel mills remained actively producing. The blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.77% to 84.33%, the iron - making capacity utilization rate increased by 1.45% to 91.6% month - on - month, and the daily average pig iron output increased by 42,300 tons to 2.4435 million tons, the highest since October 2023, with the year - on - year increase expanding to 6.83%. The expectation of crude steel reduction has re - emerged. Some short - process steel mills are expected to cut production due to losses. Recently, long - process steel mills have been converting to producing billets with better profits, and the output of rebar in some steel mills has been diverted, resulting in a tight supply of certain specifications, and the short - term supply pressure has been alleviated, improving the supply - demand pattern [1]. Investment Advice - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory levels, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - Rebar: Investors are advised to adopt a volatile trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to adopt a high - level consolidation strategy in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the decline stabilizes or the strength relationship between coking coal and coke [1].