中盐化工（600328）：Q1盈利同比下滑，纯碱景气静待复苏

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 7.56 RMB [6][7]. Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year decline in profits for Q1, with a net profit of 0.17 billion RMB, down 73% year-on-year and up 131% quarter-on-quarter. The revenue was 2.77 billion RMB, up 3% year-on-year but down 17% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. - The company is expected to maintain competitiveness in the low-demand environment due to its integrated production capabilities in the salt chemical industry [1][4]. - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 has been revised downwards due to weak market conditions, with expected profits of 6.1 billion RMB, 7.8 billion RMB, and 10.1 billion RMB respectively [4][12]. Summary by Sections Q1 Earnings Overview - The company achieved a revenue of 2.77 billion RMB in Q1, a 3% increase year-on-year but a 17% decrease quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.17 billion RMB, reflecting a 73% decline year-on-year and a 131% increase quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. Product Performance - The sales volume of soda ash reached 950,000 tons, up 71% year-on-year but down 17% quarter-on-quarter. The average price decreased by 36% year-on-year to 1,274 RMB per ton [2][4]. - The company’s overall gross margin decreased to 9.5%, down 5% year-on-year [2]. Industry Outlook - The soda ash market is expected to recover slowly, with current prices under pressure due to new capacity and weak downstream demand [3][4]. - The company is working on reducing production costs through energy efficiency improvements and has ongoing projects aimed at cost reduction [3][4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits of 6.1 billion RMB, 7.8 billion RMB, and 10.1 billion RMB, reflecting a decrease of 31%, 27%, and 23% respectively from previous estimates [4][12]. - The target price is set at 7.56 RMB, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 18x for 2025, considering the company's integrated production advantages [4][11].