冠通每日交易策略-20250429

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Copper prices are currently in a state of long - short game on the trading board. As the subsequent macro - sentiment is gradually digested, the market is expected to return to fundamentals and remain in a volatile range in the short term [3][5]. - Given the repeated tariff policies and large fluctuations in crude oil, it is recommended to take a light - position short - selling approach to crude oil [6]. - For asphalt, with both supply and demand increasing and large fluctuations in crude oil, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [11]. - PP is expected to trade in a volatile manner [13]. - Plastic is expected to trade weakly in a volatile manner, and it is recommended to close the short - position on the basis of the plastic 05 contract for profit [14]. - PVC is expected to trade weakly in a volatile manner in the near term [16]. - Urea may experience a corrective rebound after the agricultural demand starts, but attention should be paid to the risk of price fluctuations on the trading board [17]. Summary by Hot - Spot Varieties Copper - Supply: As of April 25, the domestic spot smelting fee (TC) is - 40.3 dollars per dry ton, and the RC fee is - 4.04 cents per pound, with negative values continuing to expand. In March, the refined copper production was 1.248 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%; the imported refined copper volume was 354,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. The market still anticipates a tight supply [3]. - Demand: After the price increase, pre - May Day stocking was scattered. In the peak season, downstream demand was relatively strong, and the downstream operating rate was high. In the first two months of 2025, the global apparent refined copper usage increased by about 1%. In China, the apparent demand increased by about 1.6%. The net refined copper imports decreased by 11%. Terminal demand from power grid investment, household appliances, and automobiles brought an increase in copper demand, and copper inventory decreased significantly within the month [3]. - Price Outlook: The current trading board is in a long - short game. After the macro - sentiment is digested, the market will return to fundamentals and remain volatile in the short term [3][5]. Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC + started to gradually relax the production - cut plan in April and increased the daily crude oil supply in May to 411,000 barrels. However, the motivation for compensatory production cuts in some countries is insufficient. The US crude oil production is still near a historical high, and other non - OPEC + countries are also releasing production capacity, resulting in large supply pressure [6]. - Demand: The most panicked period of the global trade war has passed, but the global economic growth rate is expected to decline. The three major crude oil institutions have lowered their forecasts for the global crude oil demand growth rate. May is the off - season for global crude oil consumption [6]. - Price Outlook: Given the repeated tariff policies and large price fluctuations, it is recommended to take a light - position short - selling approach [6]. Asphalt - Supply: Last week, the asphalt operating rate rebounded by 2.0 percentage points to 30.7%, higher than the same period last year. The expected production in May is 2.318 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 29,000 tons (1.3%) and a year - on - year increase of 30,000 tons (1.3%) [11]. - Demand: Last week, the downstream operating rate of asphalt increased. The road asphalt operating rate increased by 4.5 percentage points to 24.5%. The actual demand still needs to be restored [11]. - Price Outlook: With both supply and demand increasing and large fluctuations in crude oil, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [11]. PP - Supply: The operating rate of PP enterprises has risen to about 78.5%, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawn yarn remains at about 29%. Exxon's two sets of equipment in Huizhou have been put into production, and there are many maintenance devices recently [13]. - Demand: The overall downstream operating rate of PP has decreased slightly, and the demand recovery is slow [12][13]. - Price Outlook: It is expected to trade in a volatile manner [13]. Plastic - Supply: The plastic operating rate has dropped to about 91%. New production capacities such as Wanhua Chemical, Inner Mongolia Baofeng 2, and ExxonMobil Huizhou Phase I have been put into production, and some maintenance devices have restarted recently [14]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate of PE is basically stable. The agricultural film season is coming to an end, and the packaging film orders have increased slightly. The downstream demand has not fully recovered, and the new orders are slow to follow up [14]. - Price Outlook: It is expected to trade weakly in a volatile manner. It is recommended to close the short - position on the basis of the plastic 05 contract for profit [14]. PVC - Supply: The PVC operating rate has increased to 78.63%. The spring inspection scale in April is less than that of last year, and the operating rate is expected to rise slightly this week [15][16]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate of PVC has not changed much and is still low compared to previous years. The real - estate data from January to March has slightly improved, but the year - on - year figures are still negative [16]. - Price Outlook: It is expected to trade weakly in a volatile manner in the near term [16]. Urea - Supply: The operating rate has increased, and the daily output has exceeded 200,000 tons. Some factories still have复产 plans after the May Day holiday [17]. - Demand: The holiday stocking is basically over. The demand from agricultural dealers is limited, and the demand from compound fertilizer factories is the main source. The demand for urea is expected to increase slightly after the summer fertilizer demand is released [17]. - Price Outlook: The current trading board is affected by negative sentiment, and the demand is weakening. There may be a corrective rebound after the agricultural demand starts [17]. Futures Market Overview - Closing Prices: As of April 29, most domestic futures main contracts fell. The container shipping index (European line) fell by more than 7%, and pulp and alumina fell by more than 3%. In terms of gains, staple fiber, asphalt, and international copper rose by nearly 1%. Among stock - index futures, the IF main contract fell by 0.20%, the IH main contract fell by 0.35%, the IC main contract rose by 0.23%, and the IM main contract rose by 0.70%. Among treasury - bond futures, the TS main contract rose by 0.01%, the TF main contract rose by 0.13%, the T main contract rose by 0.23%, and the TL main contract rose by 0.69% [8][9]. - Fund Flows: As of 15:18, funds flowed into alumina 2509 (460 million), CSI 1000 2506 (397 million), and ten - year treasury bonds 2506 (268 million). Funds flowed out of Shanghai gold 2506 (1.381 billion), Shanghai silver 2506 (486 million), and palm oil 2509 (298 million) [9].