固定收益周报：债市窄幅震荡，PMI或为短期核心定价因子-20250429

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The bond market may continue the range - bound oscillation pattern. The release of the first macro - data PMI after the tariff shock is crucial. If the PMI data weakens, it may drive the market to price the logic of "fundamental weakening - policy easing intensification", leading to a temporary decline in bond yields. Currently, the bond market's long - and short - term factors are in a stalemate, with the policy end having "abundant expectations but restrained implementation", and the impact of tariffs on the fundamentals still needing data verification. As a result, market participants' wait - and - see sentiment is rising, and yields may maintain a narrow - range fluctuation in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Weekly Review - Monday: The unchanged LPR quote triggered interest rate repricing, and yields of various tenors oscillated upwards. The short - end was affected by the marginal tightening of the tax - period capital, and the ultra - long - end was affected by the increased supply of special treasury bonds [8]. - Tuesday: The market speculated on the expectation of monetary policy easing, and bond market sentiment improved. The central bank's net injection of funds led to a full - line decline in interest - rate bond yields, with the long - end performing better than the short - end [8]. - Wednesday: The marginal easing of tariff shocks led to an across - the - board increase in yields of various tenors [9]. - Thursday: Under the supply shock of ultra - long - term treasury bonds, yields first declined and then rose. The central bank's net withdrawal of funds did not change the overall loose capital situation after the tax period [9]. - Friday: The spot - bond market showed policy - speculation - dominated fluctuations. The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond first rose slightly and then declined under the influence of policy signals, but finally ended flat [10]. 3.2 Secondary Market - Yield Changes: Most yields of treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds increased. As of April 25, the 1 - year treasury bond yield was 1.4501%, up 2.01bp; the 10 - year was 1.6606%, up 1.13bp; the 30 - year was 1.9276%, up 2.34bp. For China Development Bank bonds, the 1 - year yield was 1.5684%, down 0.19bp; the 10 - year was 1.6961%, up 1.51bp; the 30 - year was 2.0568%, up 2.34bp [12]. - Term Spread Changes: The term spreads of treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds showed different trends. The 10Y - 1Y spread of treasury bonds narrowed by 0.79bp to 21.05bp, while the 30Y - 10Y spread widened by 1.07bp to 26.70bp. Most term spreads of China Development Bank bonds widened, with the 10Y - 1Y spread widening by 0.82bp to 12.77bp and the 30Y - 10Y spread widening by 0.39bp to 36.07bp [16]. 3.3 Liquidity Tracking - Funding Side - Central Bank Operations: From April 21 to April 25, the central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 77.4 billion yuan. Next week, the maturity of reverse repurchases is 88.2 billion yuan, slightly larger than the previous week [18]. - Funding Rates: After the tax period, funding rates generally decreased. The R001 decreased by 9.45bp to 1.5843%, and the R007 decreased by 5.29bp to 1.6587%. The difference in funding costs between non - bank institutions and banks increased, and the market's expectation of medium - and long - term interest rates decreased [19]. - Bond Supply - Interest - Rate Bonds: The total issuance of interest - rate bonds increased, but the net financing decreased. The total issuance scale was 923.383 billion yuan, an increase of 121.246 billion yuan from the previous week, and the net financing was 126.752 billion yuan, a decrease of 480.316 billion yuan [35]. - Government Bonds: The issuance scale of government bonds decreased, and the net payment decreased. The issuance of treasury bonds was 326 billion yuan, a decrease of 109 billion yuan, and the issuance of local government bonds was 191.12257 billion yuan, a decrease of 94.9428 billion yuan [38]. - Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit: The issuance scale increased, the net financing increased, and the issuance interest rate decreased slightly. The total issuance was 967.78 billion yuan, an increase of 258.18 billion yuan, and the net financing was 177.14 billion yuan, an increase of 180.67 billion yuan [40]. 3.4 Global Asset Classes - US Treasury Bonds: Yields generally declined, and the 10Y - 2Y spread widened by 2bp to 55bp. The 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped 15bp to 4.29% [47]. - Exchange Rates: The US dollar index rebounded slightly, up 0.34% to 99.57. The US dollar - RMB central parity rate slightly declined by 0.0042% to 7.2066 [47]. - Commodities: Gold prices corrected, down 1.53% to $3,272.20 per ounce; silver prices rose significantly, up 4.47% to $33.67 per ounce; crude oil prices fell, with WTI down 2.15% to $63.18 per barrel and Brent down 1.39% to $66.91 per barrel [49][51].