中国房地产周报：寄望新增支持措施-20250429

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the real estate sector, indicating a need for significant new support measures to stabilize the market [7][35]. Core Insights - New home sales continue to decline year-on-year, with a 23.3% drop in the last week across 30 major cities, although there was a 12.2% increase compared to the previous week [1][14]. - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized timely monetary easing measures to support the real estate market, but the effectiveness of such measures may be diminishing due to prolonged low interest rates [5][35]. - The report highlights a disparity in new home sales growth among first-tier cities, with Beijing experiencing a 2.1% decline, while Guangzhou and Shenzhen saw increases of 25.2% and 58.7%, respectively [2][17]. Summary by Sections New Home Sales and Land Transactions - The total new home sales volume in 30 major cities reached 1.67 million square meters, down 23.3% year-on-year, with all city categories showing declines [1][14]. - Land transaction volume in 100 major cities was 16.42 million square meters, reflecting a 24.3% year-on-year decrease, although it increased by 23.6% compared to the previous week [4][29]. Inventory and Sales Ratios - The overall inventory-to-sales ratio for residential properties in the top ten cities was 103.3, higher than the previous year's 88.0, indicating a stable inventory level [3][26]. - First-tier cities had a lower inventory-to-sales ratio of 62.8 compared to last year's 64.9, while second-tier cities showed a significant increase to 174.4 from 118.0 [3][26]. Policy and Market Developments - The Central Political Bureau's meeting on April 25 highlighted the need for timely interest rate cuts and increased support for the real estate market, aiming to stabilize the sector [5][31]. - The report notes that while the policy direction is positive, there is a lack of substantial new support measures, making the current economic environment more complex [7][35]. Stock Performance - The report indicates that Hong Kong-listed mainland property stocks have generally lagged behind the broader market, with the Hang Seng China Mainland Property Index rising only 0.4% [6][33]. - Specific stocks such as China Overseas Development and China Resources Land are highlighted for continued attention due to their relatively stable performance [8][36].