油脂豆粕持续下挫

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the trends of various agricultural products. The overall situation is that the oil and meal sectors are declining, the pig price is dropping, the corn price is expected to be strong, and different products have different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals and market factors [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Palm Oil - The main contract 2509 continues to decline. The supply - demand in the palm oil producing areas is increasing, but the supply - side pressure is greater. High - frequency data shows that the production in Malaysia from April 1 - 20 increased by 9% - 20%, and the export from April 1 - 25 increased by 3% - 15%. The market expects the MPOB to raise the inventory in May. The lack of progress in Indonesia's B40 policy weakens consumer confidence. The domestic import profit is repaired, and the increase in supply expectations and weak demand pressure the price [1][2]. - Technically, the main contract 2509 breaks through the downside, the MACD red column shrinks, and the strategy is to hold a light - short position. The support is 8100, and the resistance is 8170 [3]. (2) Soybean Oil - The main contract 2509 continues to decline. The concentrated arrival of imported soybeans in China increases the supply expectation. The total import volume in the second quarter may reach 4150 tons, doubling that of the first quarter. It is expected that the oil mill's operating rate will continue to rise after May Day, and the tight supply situation will be alleviated [4]. - Technically, the main contract 2509 falls below most moving averages, and the strategy is to hold a light - short position. The support is 7756, and the resistance is 7814 [4]. (3) Soybean Meal - The main contract 2509 continues to decline. The downstream market's acceptance of high - priced soybean meal decreases, the spot price drops, and the trading volume plummets. With the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans, the oil mill's operating rate will increase, and the supply is expected to improve [6]. - Technically, the main contract 2509 has three consecutive declines, the MACD green column expands significantly, and the strategy is to hold a light - short position. The support is 2928, and the resistance is 2990 [6]. (4) Corn - The main contract 2507 rises and then falls. After continuous price increases, there is profit - taking by long - positions. However, the remaining grain in the domestic main production areas is low, the drought in the wheat - producing areas raises the wheat price, reducing its substitution advantage for corn. The significant decrease in corn imports also supports the price [8]. - Technically, the main contract 2507 is still above the moving averages, the MACD red column expands, and the strategy is to go long at low positions. The support is 2350, and the resistance is 2370 [8]. (5) Live Pigs - The main contract 2509 continues to decline significantly. The breeding side accelerates the slaughter rhythm due to the inverted standard - fat price difference, increasing the supply. The downstream demand lacks increment, and the difficulty of selling white - striped pigs in the wholesale market pressures the price [11]. - Technically, the main contract 2509 breaks through the downside, the MACD green column expands, and the strategy is to hold a light - short position. The support is 13800, and the resistance is 14000 [11]. (6) Sugar - The main contract 2509 gaps down. The increase in sugar production in Thailand and Brazil pressures the international ICE raw sugar price. The rainfall in Guangxi, China, eases the drought, and the opening of the additional import profit window may increase the import pressure [12][13][15]. - The strategy is to close long positions. The support is 5887, and the resistance is 5997 [15]. (7) Eggs - The main contract 2506 has a narrow - range oscillation, and the main trend is still weak. The May Day stocking is basically over, the market trading slows down, and the inventory increases. The egg - laying hen inventory is at a high level and will continue to grow [16]. - Technically, the main contract 2506 is still pressured by the short - term moving averages, the MACD shows a dead - cross sign, and the strategy is to go short at high positions. The support is 2960, and the resistance is 2998 [16]. (8) Cotton - The main contract 2509 breaks through the downside. The "Golden March and Silver April" season in the domestic textile industry is ending, the new orders are low, the sales slow down, and the inventory increases. The new cotton sowing progresses rapidly, and the climate in Xinjiang is favorable, with a sowing progress of 78.3% [18]. - Technically, the main contract 2509 breaks through the moving averages, and the strategy is to hold a light - short position. The support is 12700, and the resistance is 12900 [18]. (9) Apples - The main contract 2510 rebounds after a decline and remains at a high level. The May Day stocking is ending, the market in the production area is stable, the inventory is low (309.98 million tons as of April 24), and the sales in the sales area are stable [20]. - The strategy is to hold long positions. The support is 7886, and the resistance is 8070 [20]. (10) Soybeans (Domestic) - The main contract 2507 declines continuously. The decline of imported soybean prices drags down domestic soybeans, and the demand in the sales area is weak. The shift of the imported soybean supply to a loose situation weakens the long - position sentiment [23]. - Technically, the main contract 2507 approaches the 20 - day moving average. The strategy is to pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average and go short if it is broken. The support is 4150, and the resistance is 4208 [23].