Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Crude oil's medium - term drivers (supply - demand, macro, and geopolitics) still point downward, with a bearish outlook. Short - term upward repair is limited, and the medium - to long - term oversupply pattern persists. During the May Day holiday, there is a high probability of a decline in crude oil prices, and it is recommended to hold a light position before the holiday or use some options instead [1]. - For the energy and chemical sector, profitable positions can be partially liquidated before the holiday, and for those that have exited, wait for post - holiday opportunities [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Weekly Fundamental View: Kazakhstan prioritizes national interests over OPEC+ interests, and some OPEC+ members want to accelerate production increase in June, leading to an expected supply surplus [4]. - Daily Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After a long - negative candlestick with reduced positions today, the downward structure is further confirmed, but there may be short - term fluctuations. The upper pressure is around 499. Last week's short positions can still be held, with the stop - profit moved down to today's high, and partial positions can be exited before the holiday. Pay attention to the opportunity of buying options after the implied volatility drops [4]. Styrene - Weekly Fundamental View: The upside of crude oil is limited, and the cost side is under pressure. The supply and demand of pure benzene are both weak, and the supply of styrene is expected to increase while the inventory is high, resulting in a bearish fundamental outlook [7]. - Daily Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After today's intraday oscillation, the downward path continues. The pressure is the high on April 23, and the stop - loss for last week's short positions still refers to the high on April 25. Partial positions can be liquidated before the holiday [7]. PX - Weekly Fundamental View: The upside of crude oil is limited, and the cost side is under pressure. The terminal textile demand is weak, and the polyester production at a high level is under pressure to decline [11]. - Daily Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It fell with crude oil today, with no signal at the hourly - level but a downward turn at the 15 - minute level. The pressure is the high on April 8. The strategy is to short on the reversal pattern without breaking through the pressure, but it is not recommended to open new positions before the holiday [11]. PTA - Weekly Fundamental View: The upside of crude oil is limited, and the cost side is under pressure. The short - term demand is strong, but the medium - term demand is under pressure due to high tariffs on textiles in the US [14]. - Daily Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It fell with reduced positions today but did not break below the low on the night of April 25. There is no opportunity to enter short positions again for now [14]. PP - Weekly Fundamental View: PP enters the maintenance season from late April to May, with a decline in the operating rate expected. The demand is under pressure due to the end of the peak season and export tariffs, and the cost side is under pressure. The fundamentals are bearish [17]. - Daily Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After today's intraday oscillation, the downward trend remains. Last week's short positions can still be held, with the stop - profit referring to the high on April 16, and partial positions can be liquidated before the holiday [17]. Urea - Weekly Fundamental View: The restart of short - term shutdown devices will maintain a high supply, while the summer fertilizer preparation demand has not started, and the export policy is tight. The short - term supply is strong and the demand is weak, with a bearish outlook [21]. - Daily Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After a new low with increased positions today, the trend remains unchanged. Last week's short positions can continue to be held, with the stop - profit referring to the high on April 18, and partial profit - taking can be done before the holiday [21]. Methanol - Weekly Fundamental View: Due to tariff pressure, the export demand of methanol's downstream products is weak, and the demand has declined significantly. Although there are maintenance of inland devices, the supply is expected to increase. The supply and demand are weak, with a bearish outlook [22]. - Daily Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. After a decline with reduced positions today, the downward trend remains. The pressure level refers to the high on April 7. The strategy is to short on the reversal pattern without breaking through the pressure, but there is no good opportunity to open new positions before the holiday [24]. Rubber - Weekly Fundamental View: The weekly fundamentals change little, and it follows the tariff sentiment. The spot price above 15,000 is at a high level in recent years. After the Southeast Asian rubber - tapping season, the supply is expected to be loose. The domestic tire inventory is high, and the substitution of synthetic rubber for natural rubber is expected to increase. The medium - term outlook is bearish [25]. - Daily Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After today's intraday oscillation, it is in a narrow - range oscillation for oversold repair. There is no opportunity after the previous short positions took profit [25]. Caustic Soda - Daily Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After today's intraday oscillation, the downward path remains. Last week's short positions can still be held, with the stop - profit referring to the high on April 25 [28]. Ethylene Glycol - Daily Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After today's intraday oscillation, there is no signal of trend reversal. The short - term pressure level is the high on April 7. After the previous short positions took profit last week, it is recommended to wait and see [29][32]. Plastic - Weekly Fundamental View: The upside of crude oil is limited, and the cost side is under pressure. The peak season of agricultural film is over, the demand is weak, and the supply remains high. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, with a bearish outlook [33]. - Daily Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After today's intraday oscillation, the downward path continues. The pressure level is the high on April 7. Short positions can be held, with the stop - profit referring to the high on April 23, and partial profit - taking can be done before the holiday [33].
原油下跌确认，假期几大时间节点偏空概率更大
Tian Fu Qi Huo·2025-04-29 11:28