瑞达期货国债期货日报-20250429

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is likely to return to being dominated by fundamentals, and the interest rate center may decline further. The market generally expects the Fed to restart rate cuts around June, which may also be the window for the central bank to implement monetary easing, with reserve requirement ratio cuts likely to precede interest rate cuts. Given the recent intensifying divergence in the bond market, if the short - end bond futures do not show signs of stabilization, there is a risk of a decline in the long - end. It is recommended to wait for the short - end to stabilize before making band allocations [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - Futures Closing Prices and Volumes: T, TF, TS, and TL主力合约收盘价分别上涨0.23%、0.13%、0.01%、0.69%，成交量分别为51372（+1234）、50163（+2563）、34240（+4950）、77545（+604）手 [2]. - Futures Spreads: Some spreads such as TL2509 - 2506, T2509 - 2506, TF2509 - 2506, T06 - TL06, TF06 - T06, TS06 - T06, TS06 - TF06 decreased, while TS2509 - 2506 increased [2]. - Futures Positions: T、TF、TL主力持仓量分别增加5655、1926手，TS主力持仓量减少1495手；各合约前20名多空持仓和净空仓有不同变化 [2]. 3.2 CTD and Active Bonds - CTD Bonds: The net prices of several CTD bonds such as 240025.IB, 220003.IB, etc. increased [2]. - Active Bonds: Yields of 1 - 7 - year active bonds decreased by 1 - 2bp, and 10 - year yield decreased by 1.65bp [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates - Short - term Interest Rates: Silver - pledged overnight rate increased by 6bp, Shibor overnight rate decreased by 6.2bp; silver - pledged 7 - day rate increased by 16bp, Shibor 7 - day rate increased by 2.5bp; silver - pledged 14 - day rate decreased by 2bp, Shibor 14 - day rate increased by 0.9bp [2]. - LPR Rates: 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations with a issuance scale of 3405 billion yuan and a maturity scale of 2205 billion yuan, with an interest rate of 1.5% for 7 - day period [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The State Council Information Office held a press conference, and Deputy Governor Zou Lan of the central bank said that reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts would be carried out in a timely manner to maintain sufficient liquidity and introduce incremental policies [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission allocated 810 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds for the second batch this year to support consumer goods trade - in [2]. - The central bank held a meeting to deploy the implementation of the overall statistical system for the "five major articles" of finance [2]. 3.6 Market Performance - On Tuesday, treasury bond spot yields strengthened collectively, and treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank shifted to net investment, and the weighted average DR007 rate rose to 1.75% [2]. 3.7 Key Data to Watch - On April 30, data such as the US April ADP employment, March core PCE price index annual rate, and the week - on - week EIA crude oil inventory are to be released; on May 1, data such as the week - on - week initial jobless claims and April ISM manufacturing PMI; on May 2, the April unemployment rate and seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls [3].