兴业期货日度策略-20250429

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the commodity futures market, maintain a long - term bullish view on gold, while prices of coking coal and polysilicon are under pressure [1]. - In the stock index market, the A - share market is expected to show a volatile and slightly upward trend in the short - term, with a clear upward trend in the long - term [2]. - The bond market is expected to trade in a range, with optimistic sentiment but high valuation pressure [2]. - Precious metals are expected to trade in a high - level range due to high macro uncertainties [2][4]. - Non - ferrous metals are generally expected to trade in a range, with different influencing factors for each metal [3][4]. - Lithium carbonate and silicon energy are expected to be weak, with a supply - demand imbalance [5][7]. - Black metals are expected to trade in a range before the holiday, with the focus on the implementation of the crude steel reduction policy [7]. - Coke and coking coal have different trends, with coking coal in a supply - surplus situation and coke in a price - increase negotiation stage [8]. - Soda ash and glass are expected to be weak, with soda ash having short - term support but a long - term downward trend, and glass facing increasing inventory pressure [8]. - PTA is expected to have limited upward price movement due to insufficient demand and cost support [9]. - Crude oil is expected to trade in a range due to multiple uncertainties [10]. - Methanol and polyolefins are expected to decline, with factors such as supply and demand changes and approaching option expiration [10][11]. - Rubber is expected to be weak, with a supply - increase and demand - decrease situation [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Futures - Gold: Due to the increasing risk of stagflation in the US in the second quarter, hold the previous long positions of Shanghai Gold AU2506. The long - term upward drive of gold is clear, and it is recommended to hold the previous long positions of AU2506 and sell out - of - the - money put options AU2506P752. Silver also has strong support, and it is recommended to hold the sold out - of - the - money put options AG2506P7500 [1][4]. - Coking Coal: With limited downstream restocking and high coal mine inventory pressure, hold the previous short positions of coking coal JM2509 [1]. - Polysilicon: Due to the expected weakening of the fundamentals, hold the sold call option positions of polysilicon PS2506 - C - 40000 [1]. 3.2 Stock Index and Bond - Stock Index: Before the holiday, funds are cautious. The A - share market has a short - term policy support and a long - term upward trend. IC and IM have greater elasticity, while IF and IH are relatively stable [2]. - Bond: The bond market is strong, with loose funds and no clear incremental policies. There is no bearish expectation in the macro - aspect, but high valuation pressure exists before the clear easing of monetary policy [2]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price is expected to continue a wide - range oscillation pattern due to uncertain tariff policies, a tight supply at the mine end, and cautious mid - term demand expectations [3][4]. - Aluminum and Alumina: The alumina has a clear upward pressure due to the unchanged over - supply pattern and potential cost reduction. The Shanghai Aluminum is expected to continue to oscillate with limited fundamental driving factors [4]. - Nickel: The nickel price is in a range - bound pattern with upward pressure and downward support. New orders are recommended to wait and see before the impact of the Indonesian policy becomes clear [4]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - Lithium Carbonate: The supply of lithium carbonate is loose, and the strategy of selling call options should be continued [5]. - Silicon Energy: The silicon energy industry is in a supply - surplus situation, and the low - price state will continue [5][7]. - PTA: The PTA price has limited upward space due to insufficient demand and cost support [9]. - Crude Oil: The crude oil price is expected to oscillate due to uncertainties in trade, geopolitics, and production decisions [10]. - Methanol: The methanol price is likely to fall, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [10]. - Polyolefins: The polyolefin price is expected to decline as the demand enters the off - season and production increases [11]. 3.5 Black Metals - Rebar: The rebar price will continue to oscillate before the holiday. The focus in May is on the crude steel reduction policy and the marginal change in the supply - demand structure. The option strategy is better than the single - sided futures strategy [7]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The hot - rolled coil price is expected to oscillate before the holiday. The focus in May is on the marginal change in exports and the crude steel reduction policy [7]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore price will oscillate before the holiday. It is recommended to hold the sold out - of - the - money call options and wait for a clearer production - limit policy [7][9]. 3.6 Coke and Coking Coal - Coking Coal: The supply of coking coal is loose, and the previous short positions can be continued, with cautious investors taking profit before the holiday [8]. - Coke: The coke price is in a price - increase negotiation stage, and the futures price is expected to bottom out [8]. 3.7 Soda Ash and Glass - Soda Ash: The soda ash has short - term support but a long - term downward trend. It is recommended to hold the previous short positions of the 09 contract and adjust the stop - loss line [8]. - Glass: The glass price is expected to decline gradually, and it is recommended to hold the previous short positions of the FG509 contract and lock in some profits [8]. 3.8 Rubber - The rubber market has a supply - increase and demand - decrease expectation. It is recommended to continue the strategy of selling call options and pay attention to consumption - stimulating measures before the holiday [11].