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Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Silver, Copper [4] - **Bearish**: Carbonate Lithium, Thread Steel, Hot Rolled Coil, Soda Ash, Float Glass [4][6][8] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Coking Coal, Coke [6][8] - **Cautiously Bullish**: Rubber [10] - **Sideways**: Treasury Bonds, Alumina, Aluminum, Nickel, Polysilicon, Iron Ore, Crude Oil, Methanol, Polyolefin, Zhengzhou Cotton [1][4][6][8][10] Core Views - The A - share market is in a stage of shock consolidation, but the upward trend remains unchanged due to abundant liquidity and high allocation value of Chinese equity assets [1] - The bond market is in a sideways pattern with cautious sentiment and limited directional drivers [1] - Precious metals are in a bullish pattern due to increased short - term risk - aversion sentiment and the Fed's likely shift to easing [4] - Some industrial metals have different trends. Copper is bullish due to supply tightness, while nickel is in a sideways pattern with supply - demand contradictions [4] - Energy and chemical products show various trends. Lithium carbonate is bearish due to supply pressure, and polyolefin may rebound with increased supply and demand [4][10] - Building materials like steel and glass are under pressure. Steel has supply - demand contradictions, and glass may face price pressure if demand is weak [6][8] Summary by Variety Stock Index - The two - margin balance has reached a record high of 2.91 trillion yuan. The stock index has entered a shock consolidation stage, but the upward trend remains due to abundant liquidity [1] Treasury Bonds - The bond market is in a sideways pattern. The stock - bond seesaw effect has weakened, and market sentiment is cautious [1] Precious Metals - Gold and silver are in a bullish pattern. The Fed's shift to easing and risk - aversion sentiment have strengthened their financial and monetary attributes [4] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Bullish. Supply is tight, and the mid - term upward trend is clear [4] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Alumina is in a sideways pattern with limited downside. Aluminum has strong support, and long positions can be held [4] - **Nickel**: Sideways. Supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure from the long - term surplus [4] Carbonate Lithium - Bearish. Supply remains high, and short - term prices are under pressure [4][6] Polysilicon - Sideways. Supply pressure has increased significantly, and the price increase space is limited [6] Steel and Iron Ore - **Thread Steel**: Bearish. Inventory is increasing seasonally, and prices are expected to be weak [6] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: Bearish. Supply - demand contradictions are accumulating, and prices may continue to be weak [6] - **Iron Ore**: Sideways. High iron - water production eases supply - demand contradictions, and prices will range between 760 - 820 [6] Coking Coal and Coke - Bearish. Demand is weak, and prices are under pressure, but the decline of coking coal may slow down [6][8] Soda Ash and Glass - **Soda Ash**: Bearish. Supply is greater than demand, and prices are under downward pressure [8] - **Float Glass**: Bearish. Demand is hard to digest supply, and prices are under pressure [8] Crude Oil - Sideways. Geopolitical factors may cause short - term price increases, but long - term supply pressure is large [8] Methanol - Sideways. High imports and expected production increases will keep prices under pressure [8] Polyolefin - Sideways. Supply and demand are both increasing, and prices are expected to stop falling and rebound [10] Cotton - Sideways. New cotton production is expected to increase, and the peak - season expectation is weak [10] Rubber - Bullish. Supply - demand structure is improving, and prices are supported [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equities**: Bullish [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: Bearish [2] - **Silver**: Bullish [1][5] - **Copper**: Bullish [5] - **Aluminum Oxide**: Bearish [5] - **Aluminum**: Bullish [5] - **Nickel**: Bullish [5] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Bearish [7] - **Industrial Silicon**: Neutral [7] - **Polysilicon**: Bearish [7] - **Rebar**: Bearish [7] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Bearish [7] - **Iron Ore**: Neutral [7] - **Coking Coal**: Neutral [9] - **Coke**: Neutral [9] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish [9] - **Float Glass**: Bearish [9] - **Crude Oil**: Neutral [9] - **Methanol**: Bearish [9] - **Polyolefin**: Bearish [11] - **Cotton**: Neutral [11] - **Rubber**: Bullish [11] Core Views - The upward trend of the stock index remains unchanged, with short - term fluctuations. The bullish position of IF can be held patiently, while the bond market remains cautious [2] - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, and the previous long positions of silver AG2510 can be held. The production of PP has reached a record high, and new short positions can be entered [1][3] - The prices of precious metals are strong, and the long positions of silver contracts can be held. The copper price is strong due to a weak dollar and tight supply, while the alumina price is under pressure, and the aluminum price is resilient [5] - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are loose, and the previous short positions can be held cautiously. The polysilicon market will maintain a weak shock in the short term [7] - The prices of steel products are expected to be weak, and the profit of steelmaking tends to shrink. The short - term iron ore contract maintains a range - bound operation [7] - The actual demand for coking coal and coke is poor, but there are disturbances in production. The supply of soda ash is easy to increase but difficult to decrease, and the willingness of the glass near - month contract to accept orders is weak [9] - The oil price may rise due to geopolitical factors in the short term, but there is great pressure on the supply side in the medium and long term. The methanol supply pressure increases in September, and the price will further decline [9] - In September, the PE trend is still stronger than PP, and the long L - PP arbitrage can be held. The supply and demand of cotton are expected to be relatively loose, and the price is in a weak shock. The demand for rubber is supported [11] Summary by Category Financial Futures - The upward trend of the stock index remains unchanged, and the previous long positions of IF2509 can be held. The bond market is still cautious [1][2] Commodity Futures Precious Metals - The prices of precious metals are strong. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, and the long positions of silver AG2510 and silver 10 - contract can be held [1][3][5] Non - Ferrous Metals - The copper price is strong due to a weak dollar and tight supply. The alumina price is under pressure, and the aluminum price is resilient. The Indonesian strike causes concerns about nickel supply, and the nickel price is strong in the short term [5] Energy Metals - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are loose, and the previous short positions can be held cautiously. The polysilicon market will maintain a weak shock in the short term [7] Steel and Ore - The prices of steel products are expected to be weak, and the profit of steelmaking tends to shrink. The short - term iron ore contract maintains a range - bound operation [7] Coal and Coke - The actual demand for coking coal and coke is poor, but there are disturbances in production, and the prices are in a shock [9] Chemicals - The supply of soda ash is easy to increase but difficult to decrease, and the willingness of the glass near - month contract to accept orders is weak. The oil price may rise due to geopolitical factors in the short term, but there is great pressure on the supply side in the medium and long term. The methanol supply pressure increases in September, and the price will further decline [9] Polyolefins - In September, the PE trend is still stronger than PP, and the long L - PP arbitrage can be held [11] Agricultural Products - The supply and demand of cotton are expected to be relatively loose, and the price is in a weak shock. The demand for rubber is supported [11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - In the financial futures market, the index has broken through the high point, and sentiment has warmed up again. It is recommended to continue holding the long positions in the IF2509 contract of the CSI 300 index. In the commodity futures market, it is advisable to adopt a long - position strategy for methanol and palm oil [1]. - For various commodities, the report provides detailed analyses of their fundamentals and market trends, and gives corresponding investment suggestions such as holding long positions, short - term long positions, or adopting option strategies [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10] Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through 3800, and the bullish sentiment has continued to heat up. Last week, the A - share market rose strongly, with the trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increasing to 2.58 trillion yuan. The communication, electronics, and computer industries led the gains, while the real estate and pharmaceutical sectors lagged. Overseas, Fed Chairman Powell sent a dovish signal, and the domestic tech stock market was boosted by news related to domestic chips. The macro - environment is stable, market liquidity is abundant, and the upward drive for the index is clear. It is recommended to continue holding long positions [1]. Treasury Bonds - The issuance of treasury bonds was weak last week, and liquidity remained loose. The bond market was weak throughout the week, with the 30 - year treasury bond showing the most significant decline. Although the stock - strong and bond - weak trend remains unchanged, the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds has weakened. The bond market's follow - up decline momentum has weakened, but the upward pressure remains. A cautious and slightly bearish view is recommended [1]. Commodity Futures Methanol - Factory inventories are extremely low, and demand is gradually improving. It is recommended to enter new long positions in the MA601 contract [2]. Overseas methanol plant operating rates have increased by 4.8%, and China's methanol imports in September and October are expected to remain at a very high level. If the macro - environment provides positive factors, methanol may strengthen [10]. Palm Oil - The supply - demand situation in the main producing areas is optimistic. It is recommended to hold the previous long positions in the P2601 contract [2]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: After Powell's dovish speech at the global central bank meeting, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has risen to 84.7% (+9.7%). The gold price continues to operate in a high - level oscillation range and is relatively strong in the short term [4]. - **Silver**: The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut has increased, but there may be fluctuations in the rate - cut expectation before the September FOMC meeting. The silver price may oscillate upwards, and it is suitable to buy on dips. It is recommended to continue holding the short - position of out - of - the - money put options in the 10 - contract and patiently hold the long positions in the 10 - contract [4]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The macro - environment shows policy support expectations, and the Fed's dovish stance has strengthened the financial attribute support for copper. The supply shortage at the mine end continues, and the global exchange inventory has decreased. The long - term support for the copper price remains, and the support at the lower level has been further strengthened [4]. - **Aluminum**: The alumina market has an oversupply situation, but its valuation is low, and the downward space is limited. The financial attribute of Shanghai aluminum has improved, with clear supply constraints and optimistic demand expectations. Attention should be paid to the upward space [4]. - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel is abundant, and the downstream demand has not significantly improved. However, the macro - environment has become more favorable, and the range - bound pattern with upper pressure and lower support is difficult to break. It is recommended to continue holding the option - selling strategy [4][6]. Energy - related Commodities - **Lithium Carbonate**: The resumption of production by smelting enterprises has reduced the market's expectation of a supply shortage. The supply pattern remains loose, and the lithium price is under short - term pressure. Attention should be paid to the impact of the reserve verification report on the mica mine mining rhythm in Yichun [6]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The production of industrial silicon is stable, and the market inventory is high. The terminal demand for polysilicon is weak, and with the cooling of policy - related disturbances, the price support for polysilicon may decline, and the futures price is expected to fall [6]. - **Crude Oil**: The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in September has soared, and the US dollar has fallen. The supply - demand situation in the crude oil market is relatively calm. The EIA reported a significant decrease in crude oil inventory. The progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace issue shows that it is unlikely to make a major breakthrough in the short term, and the crude oil price has stabilized [8]. Steel and Minerals - **Rebar**: The spot price has risen, and the inventory has increased. The military parade - related production restrictions will affect the supply, and the terminal demand is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. The coal mine safety accident will support the steel - making cost. It is recommended to take profits on the short - position of out - of - the - money call options in the RB2510C3300 contract and lightly open new long positions in the 01 - contract. There is a clear driver to short the steel mill's profit by going long on furnace materials and short on rebar [6]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The spot price has slightly increased, and the inventory has increased. The impact of production restrictions on hot - rolled coil supply is limited. The coal mine safety accident will support the cost. The hot - rolled coil price is expected to follow the overall trend of the black metal sector, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is expected to shrink [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The long - process steel mills are profitable, and the blast furnace hot - metal production remains at a high level. The supply - demand contradiction of imported iron ore is slowly accumulating, and the inventory is basically stable. The production restrictions during the military parade will have an impact, but the blast furnace restart drive is strong after the parade. The short - term price of the 01 - contract is expected to operate in the range of [760, 820] [8]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal**: The daily output of raw coal has slightly increased, but the supply is still at a low level compared to the same period. The production restrictions during the military parade and safety inspections will limit the supply increase. It is recommended to lightly open short - term long positions and pay attention to the actual production rhythm in early September [8]. - **Coke**: Northern coke enterprises have entered the production - restriction stage, and steel mills in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region are facing production cuts. The spot price has completed seven rounds of increases, and the market increase has slowed down. The short - term futures price will follow the coking coal price. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of upstream and downstream enterprises [8]. Soda Ash and Glass - **Soda Ash**: The supply exceeds the demand, and the alkali plant's inventory is increasing. The daily output has decreased, and attention should be paid to the production progress of the Alxa Phase II project. The coal mine safety accident may support the soda ash price. If the coal price strengthens again, it is recommended to take profits on the previous short positions in the 01 - contract [8]. - **Float Glass**: The terminal demand is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the production - sales ratio has improved. The current supply - demand balance is slightly loose. If there are supply - side constraints, the supply - demand structure may improve. The glass price, especially the near - month price, has fallen below the cost line, and the odds of short - selling strategies are low [8]. Polyolefins - The probability of a Fed rate cut in September is high, which is beneficial to commodities. The production of PP is at a historical high, while the PE production has decreased to a medium - to - high level. As the peak season approaches in September, the downstream operating rate has accelerated. The demand for packaging films, plastic weaving, and injection molding related to daily necessities is expected to improve, but the demand for pipes related to infrastructure and real estate is expected to remain weak. The fundamentals of PE are better than those of PP, and the L - PP spread continues to widen. It is recommended to consider taking profits when the spread exceeds 400 yuan/ton [10]. Rubber - The demand for rubber is expected to be positive. The retail sales of passenger cars in mid - and early August have increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The policy is still favorable for the automotive market. The tire enterprise operating rate has slightly increased, and the de - stocking rate of all - steel tires is better than that of semi - steel tires. The raw material production rate of ANRPC is lower than expected, the new rubber production rhythm is slow, and the port inventory is decreasing. The fundamentals of natural rubber are continuously improving [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Index Futures [1] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Treasury Bonds, Coking Coal, Coke [1][8] - **Bearish**: Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Soda Ash, Float Glass, Crude Oil [5][8] - **Sideways**: Gold, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Polysilicon, Iron Ore, Methanol, Polyolefins, Cotton [4][6][9] - **Cautiously Bullish**: Silver, Rubber [4][9] 2. Core Views - **Financial Futures**: Ample liquidity and bullish sentiment remain. Hold existing long positions in the CSI 300 Index IF2509 [1]. - **Commodity Futures**: Caustic soda shows a strong trend, and an options strategy is recommended for polysilicon [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Index Futures**: A-share market showed a pullback after a rise, with small-cap stocks underperforming. The CSI 300 and SSE 50 index futures rose, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 index futures fell. The market's cautious sentiment increased, but the pattern of the index trending upward in a volatile manner remains unchanged. Hold long positions patiently [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The central bank has been conducting net injections. Policy support expectations still exist. The stock market's impact on the bond market is significant. Without new positive factors, the bond market may face upward pressure. Pay attention to the issuance of treasury bonds [1]. Commodity Futures Metals - **Precious Metals** - **Gold**: The price is oscillating within a high-range. The divergence on interest rate cuts within the Fed and between the Fed and the US government is large. Pay attention to Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting [4]. - **Silver**: The market focus is on the Fed's interest rate cuts. Hold short positions in out-of-the-money put options on the 10 - contract and long positions patiently [4]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The price is oscillating. The macro - situation has uncertainties, and the supply - demand side has limited short - term driving forces. The long - term support from the tight supply of mines remains [4]. - **Aluminum**: The alumina price is under pressure, but the downward space is limited. The supply of Shanghai aluminum is constrained, and attention should be paid to the improvement in demand [4]. - **Nickel**: The fundamental situation is weak, but the low valuation and resource - country policies provide support. Pay attention to the support level of 118,000 - 120,000 yuan [4][6]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly production is at a high level, and the inventory reduction is slow. The price is under pressure. Aggressive investors can hold light short positions and set dynamic stop - profits, while cautious investors can wait for the report on the verification of mine reserves in Yichun next month [6]. - **Silicon Energy** - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply and demand are both increasing, but the supply still appears to be in excess. The high inventory may limit the upside [6]. - **Polysilicon**: Terminal demand is weak, and the price support may decline. The futures price is expected to fall [6]. - **Steel and Ore** - **Rebar**: The anti - involution policy in the steel industry is unlikely to be implemented in the short term. The inventory is increasing passively. The price is expected to be weak. Hold short positions in out - of - the - money call options [6]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: The supply pressure has increased, and the price is expected to be weak. Pay attention to the actual situation of hot metal transfer [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term 01 contract is expected to trade within the range of 750 - 810 [6][8]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Coking Coal**: The supply is in a stage of relative relaxation, and the short - term price is under pressure. Pay attention to the subsequent spot checks by the Energy Bureau [8]. - **Coke**: Both supply and demand are affected by environmental protection control. The spot price increase has slowed down, and the futures price has weakened first [8]. - **Soda Ash and Glass** - **Soda Ash**: The supply exceeds demand. Hold existing short positions in the 01 contract [8]. - **Float Glass**: The industry is in the transition from the off - season to the peak season. The inventory accumulation has slowed down. Look for signals to take profits on short positions [8]. - **Crude Oil**: The price has stabilized. In the absence of further negative factors, close existing short positions in installments [8]. - **Methanol**: The price has rebounded. Future supply growth is the main resistance to price increases, but the possibility of a significant supply increase is low [9]. - **Polyolefins**: The price of polyethylene (PE) has decreased, while the price of polypropylene (PP) has increased slightly. The L - PP spread is expected to widen further [9]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is weak. Wait for the peak demand season [9]. - **Rubber**: The tire enterprise's operating rate has increased, and the demand has been fulfilled steadily. The supply growth is slower than expected, and the fundamentals support the price [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Equity Index [2] - Cautiously Bearish: Treasury Bonds, Coke, Coking Coal, Carbonate Lithium [2][7] - Bearish: Iron Ore, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Soda Ash, Float Glass, Crude Oil [6][7] - Bullish: Rubber [8] - Sideways: Gold, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Methanol, Polyolefins, Cotton [5][8] 2. Core Views - The equity index is on an upward trend with continuous inflow of funds and clear long - term narratives, so a long - position strategy should be maintained [2]. - The bond market is under pressure due to the strong stock market and lack of new positive factors [2]. - Soda ash is in an oversupply situation, and short - position strategies are recommended [7]. - Rubber's fundamentals are improving, and long - position strategies should be continued [3][8]. - Gold is in a high - level sideways pattern, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate decisions [5]. - Silver maintains a long - position pattern, and the Fed's interest - rate decisions are the focus [5]. - Copper prices are supported in the medium - to long - term by tight mine supply, and short - term attention should be paid to the Fed's monetary policy [5]. - Aluminum and alumina prices are in a sideways pattern, with limited downward space for alumina and clear medium - term support for aluminum [5]. - Nickel prices are in a narrow - range sideways pattern, and selling call options is recommended [5]. - Carbonate lithium supply is abundant, and prices are under pressure [6]. - Polysilicon prices may decline due to the need for market - oriented elimination of backward production capacity [6]. - Rebar prices are under pressure, and selling out - of - the - money call options is recommended [6]. - Hot - rolled coil prices are expected to be sideways, and attention should be paid to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar and molten iron transfer [6]. - Iron ore prices are under pressure in the short term, and the 01 contract is expected to trade in the range of [750, 810] [6]. - Coke prices are mainly sideways, and coking coal prices are under pressure [7]. - Float glass prices are under downward pressure, and short - position strategies for near - term contracts are recommended [7]. - Crude oil prices are relatively resilient, and previous short positions can be gradually closed if there are no further negative factors [7]. - Methanol prices may continue to rebound if the arrival volume does not increase significantly [8]. - The L - PP spread is expected to continue to widen [8]. - Cotton demand is weak currently, and the market is waiting for the peak season [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Equity Index**: The Shanghai Composite Index hit a ten - year high, and the bullish sentiment is rising. With continuous capital inflow and clear long - term narratives, the upward trend is clear, and long positions should be held [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is weak, affected by the strong stock market. Without new positive factors, the bearish pattern continues [2]. Commodity Futures - **Soda Ash**: The industry has an oversupply situation. With the possible commissioning of new devices, supply pressure will increase, and previous short positions in SA601 should be held [3][7]. - **Rubber**: The fundamentals are improving, with stable demand and slow raw - material production increase. Long positions in RU2601 should be held [3][8]. - **Precious Metals** - **Gold**: Prices are in a high - level sideways pattern. The Fed's interest - rate decisions and the speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium are key factors [5]. - **Silver**: Maintains a long - position pattern, and the Fed's interest - rate decisions are the focus [5]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: Supply is tight in the medium - to long - term, and short - term attention should be paid to the Fed's monetary policy and the US dollar trend [5]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Alumina has an overcapacity situation but low valuation, and aluminum has clear medium - term support. Both are in a sideways pattern [5]. - **Nickel**: Supply is abundant, demand is in the off - season, and prices are in a narrow - range sideways pattern. Selling call options is recommended [5]. - **Lithium and Silicon** - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply is abundant, and prices are under pressure. Aggressive investors can hold previous short positions lightly [6]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon supply is abundant, and polysilicon prices may decline due to market - oriented elimination of backward production capacity [6]. - **Steel and Iron** - **Rebar**: Fundamentals are under pressure, and selling out - of - the - money call options in RB2510C3300 is recommended [6]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Prices are expected to be sideways, and attention should be paid to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar and molten iron transfer [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices are under pressure in the short term, and the 01 contract is expected to trade in the range of [750, 810] [6]. - **Coal and Coke** - **Coke**: Prices are mainly sideways, affected by environmental protection policies on both supply and demand sides [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Prices are under pressure due to weakening demand from steel and coke enterprises [7]. - **Soda Ash and Glass** - **Soda Ash**: Maintains an oversupply situation, and previous short positions in the 01 contract should be held [7]. - **Float Glass**: Prices are under downward pressure, and short - position strategies for near - term contracts are recommended [7]. - **Energy** - **Crude Oil**: Prices are relatively resilient, and previous short positions can be gradually closed if there are no further negative factors [7]. - **Chemicals** - **Methanol**: Prices may continue to rebound if the arrival volume does not increase significantly [8]. - **Polyolefins**: The L - PP spread is expected to continue to widen [8]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Cotton**: Demand is weak currently, and the market is waiting for the peak season [8]. - **Rubber**: The fundamentals are improving, and long positions should be held [3][8].

Overall Investment Recommendations - The report provides investment strategies for various commodities and financial products, including stocks, bonds, and multiple futures contracts [1]. Stock Index Futures - The A-share market had a narrow - range oscillation on Tuesday, with the North - Securities 50 reaching a new high. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets slightly decreased to 2.64 trillion yuan but remained above 2 trillion. The comprehensive and communication industries led the gains, while the national defense and military industry, and non - bank financial sectors led the losses [1]. - Stock index futures adjusted following the spot index, with a larger decline in futures than in the spot, and the basis continued to widen. Although there is some resistance to short - term upward movement as the market breaks previous highs, the capital side remains active, and the trading enthusiasm continues to rise. As of August 18, the margin trading balance exceeded 2.1 trillion yuan, achieving six consecutive increases. Long - term positive factors such as the transfer of household deposits and the bottom - up recovery of corporate profits remain unchanged. It is recommended to maintain a long - position mindset [1]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market showed signs of stabilization and a slight rebound, with the T - contract performing weakly. The domestic market had a net capital injection, but due to the tax period, the cost of funds continued to rise. Data was scarce, and the expectation of policy intensification remained optimistic [1]. - Considering the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm and the impact of the domestic monetary policy report, the expectation is relatively cautious. The stock - bond seesaw effect is still significant, and the market's risk appetite remains optimistic. The bond market is more sensitive to negative news. Although the bond market's recent decline was rapid, new positive factors are limited, and the upward pressure may continue. A cautious and bearish view is recommended [1]. Commodity Futures Basic Metals - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The domestic economic data is mixed, but policy expectations remain optimistic. Overseas tariffs have weakened, and the market is watching the Fed's stance at the global central bank meeting. The US has expanded the scope of aluminum tariff increases, which has a limited impact on domestic exports. Alumina's over - supply situation remains unchanged, and the market's bullish sentiment has weakened significantly, with continuous upward pressure on prices. For Shanghai aluminum, the short - term demand expectation is weak, but the medium - term support is clear [3]. - **Copper**: The domestic economic data is mixed, but policy expectations are optimistic. Overseas tariffs have weakened, and the market is focused on the Fed's attitude. The smelting processing fee is slowly rebounding but remains negative, and the global copper - mine supply shortage persists. Although domestic and overseas refined copper production continues to grow, and there are positive expectations for consumption, the short - term upward momentum is limited, and the price will continue to oscillate. However, in the medium - term, the upward trend is unchanged [3]. - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore is sufficient, and port inventories are accumulating. Although Indonesia is cracking down on illegal mining, the ore price is still supported. The production capacity at the smelting end is abundant, and the trading is dull. Refined nickel production remains high, and the inventory - accumulation trend continues. As the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation cools, the nickel price has low volatility, with resistance from over - supply and support from potential ore - supply issues. Selling call options is a relatively favorable strategy [3][4]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors have led some funds to take a wait - and - see attitude towards the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The API weekly data showed a decline in US crude - oil inventories, but the market reaction was muted. As the peak consumption season for the crude - oil market is ending, the expectation of supply over - capacity is strengthening, and the short - term positive factors are lacking. The oil price will continue to be weak [5]. - **Methanol**: This week, the signing volume of northwest sample enterprises reached the lowest level since May, and the futures price dropped rapidly, reducing the downstream's purchasing willingness. Although there are many new maintenance devices, and the factory operating rate is low, providing support for the spot price, as the negative impact of increased arrivals is gradually released, the further decline space for futures is limited [7]. - **Polyolefins**: Recently, there have been more new maintenance devices for PE, and its operating rate is at a medium level, while PP's maintenance devices have restarted, and its operating rate has returned to a high level. Considering production and new capacity, PE's supply pressure is lower than PP's, and PE's demand is also better. It is recommended to hold a long position in the L - PP spread [7]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: For soda ash, the anti - involution policy has no clear signal, and the policy - intensity expectation is decreasing. The over - supply situation is obvious, with daily production slightly decreasing to 11.07 million tons, and the far - reaching energy's second - phase device may be put into operation in September, intensifying the over - supply. It is recommended to short the 01 contract. For float glass, real - estate sales and completion are weak, and although the sales - to - production ratio in some regions has increased, without effective supply - side constraints, the fundamentals are difficult to improve substantially. It is recommended to adopt a bearish strategy [5]. - **Coal and Coke**: For coking coal, after the coal - mine production self - inspection, the raw - coal output is still low, and the inventory - reduction rate has slowed down. The environmental protection restrictions on steel and coking enterprises have restricted demand, and the coal price is under pressure. For coke, some coking enterprises have received production - restriction notices, and steel mills in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region also have production - reduction expectations. The fundamentals are expected to weaken, and the price will oscillate and decline [5]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Domestically, there is a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, and the market's expectation for the new - cotton purchase price is pessimistic. Overseas, the USDA August report adjusted the supply and demand for the 2025/2026 season, and the ending inventory decreased. The inventory of imported cotton in major ports has decreased, and the downstream industry has slightly improved. The market is watching whether the downstream will continue to improve during the traditional peak season [7]. - **Rubber**: The automotive market benefits from policy support, and tire - enterprise operating rates are good. Although the ANRPC has entered the traditional production - increasing season, the new - rubber output rate is lower than expected, and the raw - material price in the production area is firm. The supply - demand structure of natural rubber is gradually improving, and the port inventory is decreasing, providing support for the rubber price [7]. Steel and Iron Ore - **Rebar**: The anti - involution policy has no clear implementation signal, and the policy - intensity expectation is decreasing. The fundamentals of rebar are showing more signs of weakening. Regional and phased production restrictions have limited impact on supply, and the crude - steel reduction policy has not been implemented. Steel mills' profits are acceptable, and production is expected to resume after the military - parade production restrictions end. Real - estate data is weak across the board, and the inventory of rebar has started to accumulate rapidly. It is recommended to hold a short position in the 01 contract and pay attention to the support at around 3100 [4]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Similar to rebar, the anti - involution policy has no clear signal, and the fundamentals of steel products are weakening. The military - parade production restrictions in the north mainly affected sintering and rolling processes, and the actual implementation depends on weather conditions. Steel mills' profits are good, and production is likely to resume after the restrictions end. The high coil - to - rebar spread may prompt the transfer of molten iron from rebar to hot - rolled coil. Although the current demand for plates is more resilient than that for construction steel, the inventory - accumulation rate of plates has also accelerated. The downward pressure on the hot - rolled coil price is increasing, and the near - term contract is weaker than the far - term one [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The military - parade production restrictions mainly affected sintering and rolling, and the actual implementation depends on weather conditions. Steel mills' profits are good, and production is expected to resume after the restrictions end. However, the weakening of the steel fundamentals may put pressure on the iron - ore price. It is expected that the iron - ore price will follow the steel price, with the 01 - contract price ranging from 750 to 810. It is recommended to short at high prices within this range [4][5].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The overall market sentiment is positive, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten - year high. The upward trend of stock indices is clear in the medium and long term, while the bond market is under adjustment pressure. In the commodity market, different varieties show different trends, with some being bullish, some bearish, and some in a volatile pattern [1]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Financial Futures - **Stock Indices**: The trading - type funds are active, and the abundant liquidity drives the stock indices to strengthen. With the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high, the market sentiment is high. In the medium and long term, factors such as the transfer of household deposits, the bottom - up recovery of corporate profits, and continuous policy support will continue, so the long - term holding of stock index futures is recommended [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is in a weak state. The market's risk preference is optimistic, and the bond market sentiment is fragile. The risk of bond market adjustment may not be completely eliminated, especially for long - term bonds [1]. Commodity Futures Metals - **Gold**: The price is in a high - level volatile range. The market's prediction of the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has decreased. Attention should be paid to Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting and the marginal changes in the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut [4]. - **Silver**: It maintains a bullish pattern. Although the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has cooled marginally, it is still a high - probability event. The macro - environment is generally favorable for the upward movement of the silver price [4]. - **Copper**: The price is in a volatile pattern. The medium - term upward driving force remains, but there are many short - term disturbances on the demand side, and the valuation is relatively high, so the upward momentum needs new drivers [4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Alumina is under pressure due to over - capacity, and the market's bullish sentiment has weakened. The support for Shanghai Aluminum is clear, and attention should be paid to changes in the demand side [4]. - **Nickel**: The price is in a narrow - range volatile pattern. The supply is not tightened, the demand elasticity is limited, and the high inventory suppresses the upward space. It is recommended to hold the short - call option [6]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The resource end may still be disturbed. Although the current fundamentals are loose, there is still an expectation of resource tightening in the market, and the lithium price may fluctuate widely at a high level [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Due to serious oversupply, new short positions are recommended [2]. - **Silicon Energy**: The price of polysilicon has strong support. The price increase of each link in the photovoltaic industry chain supports the profit of upstream raw materials. Policy - favorable sentiment has fermented again [6]. - **Steel and Minerals** - **Rebar**: The fundamentals are weakening. The probability of the price oscillating downward has increased. It is recommended to adjust the short - put option position to the short - call option position [6]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The short - term price is likely to be weak. It is recommended to wait for the further accumulation of fundamental contradictions or the clarification of policy [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is expected to move within a range. It is recommended to try short positions at high prices [8]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of coking coal is under pressure to fall, and the price of coke is likely to follow the coking coal price. [ - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both are in a state of strong expectation and weak reality, showing a volatile pattern. It is recommended to wait and see for soda ash and maintain an optimistic view on the 01 contract of glass. - **Crude Oil**: The market is in a bearish pattern. The consumption peak season is ending, and the supply surplus expectation is strengthening. - **Methanol**: The coastal supply is in surplus, and the price is in a bearish pattern. - **Polyolefins**: The fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The supply and demand have been adjusted, and the inventory is decreasing. The market is concerned about the marginal improvement of downstream demand in the peak season. - **Rubber**: The supply - demand structure is improving, and the port inventory is decreasing, providing support for the price.

Group 1: Overall Strategy Recommendations - Hold existing long positions in the IF2509 contract of the CSI 300 Index due to continuous improvement in liquidity and high bullish sentiment [1] - Adopt a long - position strategy for liquefied petroleum gas and Shanghai aluminum, and expect Shanghai nickel to remain weak [1] - Hold short - put options on the PS2511 - P - 45000 polycrystalline silicon contract as downstream prices provide strong support [2] - Initiate new long positions in the P2601 palm oil contract as positive factors from the production area continue to emerge [2] Group 2: Equity Index Analysis - The A - share market continued to rise last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new stage closing high and the trading volume of the two markets exceeding 2 trillion yuan for three consecutive days. The communication and non - bank financial sectors led the gains, while the banking and steel sectors declined [1] - In July, domestic economic indicators fluctuated, with the year - on - year growth rates of industrial added value, total retail sales of consumer goods, and fixed - asset investment lower than expected, which increased market expectations for incremental policies. With the continuous rise of the stock market and the accumulation of profit - making effects, the equity index is expected to remain strong under the boost of liquidity [1] Group 3: Treasury Bond Analysis - Bond market sentiment remained fragile last week, with more significant adjustments in long - term bonds. Domestic economic data was still mixed, but market optimism continued, and expectations for additional stimulus policies remained. The central bank's net injection in the open market kept the money market stable, but the overall cost of funds increased. The market's expectations for monetary policy easing turned cautious, and the bond market faced adjustment pressure [1] Group 4: Precious Metals Analysis - Gold prices are expected to continue to oscillate in a high - level range. The US - Russia summit over the weekend did not reach an agreement, but it may have released positive signals, which is marginally beneficial to global risk appetite. There is currently insufficient upward momentum for gold prices [3] - Silver remains in a bullish pattern. The confidence in a "soft landing" of the US economy is still significantly higher than that of a "recession." Although the expectation of an aggressive interest rate cut by the Fed in September has cooled, an interest rate cut within the year is still highly likely, and the direction of US fiscal policy easing is clear. Hold short - put options on the silver 10 - contract and long positions in silver [3] Group 5: Non - ferrous Metals Analysis - Copper prices are expected to continue to oscillate. Economic data is still mixed, but expectations for additional policies remain optimistic. The impact of tariffs has weakened, and there are still differences in the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm. The supply of copper mines in Chile is resuming, but the tight supply situation at the mine end has not improved. The demand during the peak season and policy expectations still support consumption, but there are many short - term disturbances on the demand side, and the valuation is relatively high, so new driving forces are needed for further upward movement [3] - The expansion of the US aluminum tariff scope has limited impact. Alumina prices fluctuated last week, and the center of gravity of Shanghai aluminum prices slightly increased. The market's expectations for additional policies remain optimistic, and there are differences in the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm. The expansion of the US aluminum tariff scope has limited impact, and the current US aluminum production capacity is limited, with a high degree of import dependence. The alumina market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate, while Shanghai aluminum has clear support at the bottom, and attention should be paid to changes in demand [3] - Nickel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in a range. The supply of nickel mines in Indonesia is tight, while the supply from the Philippines has increased seasonally. The smelting sector is in an oversupply situation, and the downstream consumption of stainless steel is still in the off - season. The demand for nickel from ternary batteries is limited by its weak market share. Although there are some supporting factors such as macro - policy expectations and a weak US dollar index, there is no clear directional driving force [3] Group 6: Lithium and Silicon Analysis - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate at a high level. The suspension of the Jiaxiaowo mine has been realized, and the price of lithium carbonate has risen significantly. The production of the smelting sector has increased, and the inventory pressure is still high. However, considering the continuous increase in futures trading volume and open interest, the market sentiment is still positive. Attention should be paid to the production situation of mines in Yichun [4] - Industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon markets are in an oscillating pattern. For industrial silicon, supply and demand have both increased, and the inventory has remained stable, with no strong driving force. The manufacturers' price - holding sentiment is strong, resulting in a stalemate between supply and demand. For polycrystalline silicon, although some enterprises in Xinjiang have stopped production, the overall supply is still increasing. Downstream component prices have risen, and there are still expectations for further price increases. Policy - related positive sentiment has re - emerged, and overall prices are strongly supported [4] Group 7: Steel and Iron Ore Analysis - Steel prices are expected to oscillate. For rebar, the long - term logic of anti - involution is difficult to disprove, but the fundamentals have shown signs of weakening. Environmental protection restrictions before the military parade may affect blast furnace production in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region, but the current steel mill profits are acceptable, which may stimulate the production enthusiasm of non - restricted areas. Rebar inventory has begun to accumulate rapidly. Without policies to reduce crude steel production, the contraction of steel - making profits is a more certain direction after the end of the military parade restrictions. Rebar futures prices are expected to continue to operate in the range of [3150, 3300] [4] - For hot - rolled coils, the fundamentals and policy are divergent. The long - term logic of anti - involution is difficult to disprove, but the steel fundamentals have weakened marginally. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils and other plate products are relatively better than those of construction steel. Environmental protection restrictions before the military parade may ease the inventory accumulation pressure of plate products. However, if there are no strict policies to reduce crude steel production, the contraction of steel - making profits is still a likely direction. Hot - rolled coil futures prices are expected to operate in the range of [3350, 3500] [4] - Iron ore prices are expected to turn to range - bound operation. The environmental protection restrictions in the north before the military parade may affect iron ore demand, but the relatively high steel mill profits and the certain复产 direction after the end of the restrictions limit the downward space of iron ore prices. Iron ore futures prices are expected to operate in the range of [750, 810] for the 01 contract [4][5] Group 8: Coal and Coke Analysis - Coking coal prices are expected to oscillate. The exchange has strengthened risk - control measures in the futures market, and the coking coal futures price fluctuations have increased. The fundamentals are improving, but the rate of inventory reduction at the mine end has slowed down, and the upward trend of coal prices is expected to slow down. Attention should be paid to the results of the energy bureau's inspection of coal mine production and the proportion of expected shutdown mines [5] - Coke prices are expected to oscillate. After six rounds of price increases, the coking profit has been repaired, and the daily production of coke has increased slightly. The impact of production restrictions on Shandong coking enterprises has not yet appeared, and the current fundamentals of coke show a double - increase pattern. However, environmental protection restrictions in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region in the second half of the month are expected to affect both supply and demand [5] Group 9: Chemical Products Analysis - Oil prices are in a bearish pattern. Geopolitical negotiations between the US and Russia may help promote the resolution of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Major institutions have significantly raised their forecasts for supply surpluses, and oil prices are expected to remain weak [5] - Methanol prices are in a bearish pattern. The overseas methanol plant operating rate has remained at 72%. The spot price of methanol in East China has fallen due to increased arrivals. The futures 09 contract has accelerated its decline, and the basis has returned to a reasonable level. If the planned restart of maintenance devices goes smoothly, production will increase significantly, but there are still new maintenance plans. Wait for the price to stabilize before selling put options or taking long positions [6] - Polyolefin prices are expected to oscillate. After the end of the centralized maintenance period, polyolefin production has returned to a high level, and demand is about to enter the peak season. There are no prominent contradictions in the fundamentals. If there are no extreme movements in coal or oil prices, polyolefin futures are expected to continue to oscillate. After the release of oil - related negative news this week, sell near - month slightly out - of - the - money put options. The spread between L and PP is expected to further widen from September to October [6] Group 10: Agricultural Products Analysis - Cotton prices are expected to have limited upward space in the short term. The USDA report has reduced the production forecast for the 2025/26 season, which has supported cotton prices. However, the domestic cotton market is still in the off - season, and there is no obvious improvement in yarn mill orders. The pre - hedging orders of ginneries under the expectation of a bumper harvest may put pressure on the market, and the peak - season expectation from September to October has not yet been reflected [6] - Rubber prices are cautiously bullish. The inventory of semi - steel tires has increased, which has dragged down production line operations, but they are still at a relatively high level. The all - steel tire inventory has decreased smoothly, and production enthusiasm is high. The demand for rubber is expected to improve marginally. Although the rubber - tapping season has entered the production - increasing period, the raw material supply has not increased as expected, and the purchase price has slightly increased. The supply - demand structure of natural rubber has continued to improve, and the port inventory has decreased rapidly, providing support for rubber prices [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the financial futures market, the market sentiment is positive, and the profit - making effect persists. The long position in the CSI 300 Index IF2509 can be held. In the commodity futures market, lithium carbonate and polysilicon are likely to rise in the short term[1]. - The stock index may continue to fluctuate upward in August under the influence of policy support, the recovery of corporate earnings from the bottom, and abundant liquidity. The bond market is in a volatile pattern with potential upward pressure and significant long - term risks[1]. - Gold prices have strong support, and silver maintains a long - position pattern. Copper, aluminum, nickel, and other non - ferrous metals are in a volatile pattern. Lithium carbonate is bullish, and polysilicon has support at the bottom[1][4][5][6]. - Steel products such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore are in a volatile pattern. Coke and coking coal are cautiously bullish. Soda ash and float glass are in a volatile pattern[5][6][7]. - Crude oil is in a short - term bearish pattern. Methanol, polyolefin are in a volatile pattern. Cotton is in a bearish pattern, and rubber is cautiously bullish[9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Futures 3.1.1 Stock Index - The market sentiment is positive, with the ChiNext Index leading the rise on Monday. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets expanded to 1.85 trillion yuan. Industries such as computers, communications, and electronics led the gains, while the banking, petrochemical, and coal sectors declined slightly. The stock index futures rose with the spot market, and the basis discount of each contract was repaired. With policy support, the recovery of corporate earnings from the bottom, and abundant liquidity, the stock index may continue to fluctuate upward in August. It is advisable to hold a long - position mindset and pay attention to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the effect of anti - involution policies[1]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond - The bond market sentiment is weak, and the long - end pressure continues. The inflation performance is average, the real estate expectation has improved, and the anti - involution expectation persists. The overseas trade relationship is still volatile, and there is uncertainty. The central bank has a net withdrawal in the open market, and the cost of funds has slightly recovered but remains at a low level. The bond market has support under the liquidity support, but the potential positive factors are limited, and the negative factors are increasing. The market sentiment is fragile, and the valuation is high, so there is still pressure above the bond futures, especially for long - term bonds[1]. 3.2 Commodity Futures 3.2.1 Precious Metals - Gold prices are supported by factors such as the risk of stagflation in the United States, interest - rate cut expectations, the debt cycle, and the US dollar credit. Although the gold price encountered resistance and pulled back when testing the pressure level again, the support below is still strong. The gold - silver ratio still has room for repair, and the long - position pattern of silver is clear. It is recommended to continue holding the short - position of out - of - the - money put options on the 10 - contract of gold and silver, and patiently hold the long - position of silver[4]. 3.2.2 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is affected by factors such as general inflation performance, improved real estate expectations, and volatile overseas trade relations. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is strong, but the inflation impact persists, and the US dollar index has risen slightly. The supply and demand situation is complex, with some copper mines in Chile resuming production while others near the accident site remaining closed. The domestic demand in the peak season has optimistic expectations, but the US copper import demand may be weak. The copper price may continue to fluctuate[4]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: The macro - environment is similar to that of copper. The alumina supply is expected to be in surplus, and the inventory of Shanghai aluminum is accumulating, but the seasonal pressure may gradually decrease. The supply increase is limited due to capacity constraints. The aluminum alloy is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be in a volatile range[4]. - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore is relatively abundant, the price of nickel iron has strengthened slightly, the intermediate product capacity is still sufficient, and the refined nickel is in a clear surplus with high inventory. Affected by positive factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, the extension of the Sino - US tariff truce, and the promotion of anti - involution policies, the nickel price has rebounded from a low level, but the surplus fundamentals limit the upside. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and the short - option strategy is relatively advantageous[6]. 3.2.3 Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The shutdown of the Jiaxiaowo Mine has boosted market sentiment, and the lithium price is likely to rise in the short term. However, the probability of all 7 lithium - related mines in Yichun shutting down is low, and the high - price lithium salt has stimulated the production enthusiasm of the smelting sector, leading to the accumulation of inventory. Attention should be paid to the impact of the shutdown cycle of the Jiaxiaowo Mine on market expectations[6]. - **Silicon - related Products**: The supply of industrial silicon has recovered, and the supply and demand of polysilicon are relatively balanced in the short term. The price of polysilicon has been pushed up by downstream replenishment inquiries, and the market has support at the bottom[6]. - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors such as the US sanctions on India for importing Russian oil and China's reduction in Saudi crude oil purchases have affected the market. The market's expectation of oil prices has further cooled, and the oil price is likely to be weak in the short term under the background of increasing supply[9]. - **Methanol**: The supply pressure in coastal areas is increasing, with the expected increase in imports in August and September. If the coastal methanol can flow inland, the supply pressure will be relieved, and the futures price is expected not to fall below 2300 yuan/ton. The price will rise again as the import volume decreases in the fourth quarter[9]. - **Polyolefin**: The suspension of Sino - US tariffs may be extended, which is beneficial to the market sentiment. However, the supply is expected to be loose with the restart of some maintenance devices and the launch of new devices, which limits the significant rise of prices[9]. 3.2.4 Steel and Minerals - **Rebar**: The spot price of rebar is strong, but the marginal pressure has emerged. The anti - involution long - term logic still holds. The support of coking coal prices and the high enthusiasm of blast - furnace production support the steel - making cost. The rebar futures price is expected to run in the range of [3150, 3300]. It is recommended to hold the short - position of out - of - the - money put options on RB2510P3000 and consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on 01 iron ore/coking coal and shorting 01 rebar[5][6][7]. - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: The spot price of hot - rolled coils is strong, but the marginal pressure has emerged. The anti - involution long - term logic still holds. After the end of the phased environmental protection restrictions, the steel mills will actively resume production, which is conducive to supporting the price of furnace materials and the steel - making cost. The hot - rolled coil futures price is expected to run in the range of [3350, 3500]. It is recommended to wait for the further accumulation of fundamental contradictions or the clarification of policy, and consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on 01 iron ore/coking coal and shorting 01 hot - rolled coils[5][6][7]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand structure of imported iron ore has weakened marginally, but the current steel mills' profits are good. Once the phased environmental protection restrictions end, the steel mills will increase production, which will support the demand for iron ore. The price of the 01 - contract of iron ore is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term. It is recommended to participate in the arbitrage opportunity of going long on iron ore and shorting rebar in the 01 - contract[7]. 3.2.5 Coke and Coking Coal - **Coking Coal**: The self - inspection of coal mine production by the Energy Bureau will last until August 15, and there is an expectation of production suspension for over - producing mines. The supply of raw coal is expected to be tightened, which supports the coal price. However, the enthusiasm for pithead auction quotes has weakened marginally, and there is a risk of short - term over - rise in the expectation - driven market[7]. - **Coke**: The spot price of coke has increased for the sixth time, and the coking profit has continued to repair. However, most coking enterprises are still at the break - even point, and the enthusiasm for further increasing production is limited. The in - furnace demand for coke still has support, but there is an expectation of production restrictions in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region in the middle and late of this month, and the spot market may stabilize[7]. 3.2.6 Soda Ash and Float Glass - **Soda Ash**: The fundamental driving force is downward, with the daily production of soda ash rising to 108,500 tons, and the demand being weaker than the supply. The alkali plant's inventory has continued to accumulate. However, the anti - involution long - term logic still holds, and the short - term price decline has slowed down. It is recommended to exit the short - position of the 09 - contract opportunistically[7]. - **Float Glass**: The rigid demand for glass has not improved significantly, and the speculative demand is weak. The production - sales ratio of float glass in four major regions has been below 100% since August, and the glass factory is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. However, the anti - involution long - term logic still holds, and there is an expectation of policy support. It is recommended to exit the short - position of the 9 - contract opportunistically and be relatively optimistic about the 01 - contract[7]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The new cotton in the main producing areas is growing well, and the probability of a bumper harvest has increased. However, the downstream replenishment is cautious, and the market expectation is pessimistic. Whether the开机率 can return to a high level in the peak season from September to October remains to be seen. The cotton price is in a weak trend[9]. - **Rubber**: The inventory in Qingdao bonded areas and general trade has decreased rapidly, the tire enterprises' production is active, and the terminal automobile market consumption is stimulated by policies. The demand expectation is turning positive. Although the main producing countries are in the traditional production - increasing season, the raw material output rate is lower than expected, and the natural rubber fundamentals are continuously improving. The rubber price is expected to maintain a volatile rebound pattern this week[9].