兴业期货日度策略：2025.08.21 重点策略推荐及操作建议： 金融期货方面：指数刷新高点，看涨情绪继续升温，沪深300指数IF2509前多继续持有。 商品期货方面：纯碱延续跌势，橡胶向上驱动强化。 联系电话：021-80220262 操作上： 品种基本面分析及行情研判： | 品种 | 观点及操作建议 | 方向研判 | 分析师 | 联系人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪指刷新十年高点，看涨情绪继续升温 周三A股午后强劲反弹，科创板领涨，沪深两市成交额维持在 | | | | | | 2.45（前值2.64）万亿元。从行业来看，电子、石油石化行业涨幅 居前，综合金融板块收跌。股指期货随现货指数走强，IC、IM基差 | | 投资咨询部 | | | | | | 张舒绮 | 联系人：房紫薇 | | | 贴水显著收敛。 | | 从业资格： | 021-80220135 | | 股指 | 昨日A股市场低开高走，上证指数收盘再度刷新近十年高点， | 看涨 | F3037345 | 从业资格： | | | 市场看涨情绪再度升温。随着指数的连续上涨，赚钱效应有望带动 | | 投资 ...

兴业期货日度策略：2025.08.20 重点策略推荐及操作建议： 商品期货方面：基本面主导行情，纯碱、PVC及原油驱动向下。 联系电话：021-80220262 操作上： 品种基本面分析及行情研判： | 品种 | 观点及操作建议 市场热度延续，上行趋势未改 | 方向研判 | 分析师 | 联系人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二A股窄幅震荡，北证50再创历史新高，沪深两市成交额小 幅降低至2.64（前值2.81）万亿元，仍维持在2万亿以上。从行业来 | | 投资咨询部 | | | | 看，综合、通讯行业涨幅居前，国防军工、非银金融板块领跌。股 | | | | | | | | 张舒绮 | 联系人：房紫薇 | | | 指期货随现货指数调整，期货回调幅度大于现货，基差继续走阔。 | | | | | 股指 | 昨日股指高位调整，随着大盘指数不断突破前高，短期超预期 | 看涨 | 从业资格： | 021-80220135 | | | | | F3037345 | 从业资格： | | | 上行面临一定阻力。但资金面活跃延续，交投热情持续升温，截至 | | 投资咨询： | F0 ...

兴业期货日度策略：2025.08.18 重点策略推荐及操作建议： 金融期货方面：资金量能继续突破，市场情绪积极，沪深300指数IF2509前多继续持有。 商品期货方面：碳酸锂支撑较强，PVC跌势开启。 联系电话：021-80220262 操作上： 品种基本面分析及行情研判： | 品种 | 观点及操作建议 资金量能继续突破，上证指数创十年新高 | 方向研判 | 分析师 | 联系人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一A股继续走强，沪指创近十年新高，沪深两市成交额扩大 至2.81（前值2.27）万亿元，成交额连续4日突破2万亿。从行业来 | | 投资咨询部 | | | | 看，通讯、计算机行业领涨，房地产、石油化工板块小幅收跌。股 | | 张舒绮 | 联系人：房紫薇 | | | 指期货随现货指数上涨，IC、IM涨超1%，基差小幅回落。 | | 从业资格： | 021-80220135 | | 股指 | 昨日交易型资金依旧活跃，流动性充裕继续驱动股指走强，随 | 看涨 | F3037345 | 从业资格： | | | 着沪指刷新高点，市场情绪高涨，对牛市的共识得到提振。中 ...

兴业期货日度策略：2025.08.18 重点策略推荐及操作建议： 金融期货方面：流动性持续提升，看涨情绪高涨，沪深300指数IF2509前多继续持有。 商品期货方面：液化气、沪铝宜持多头思路，沪镍延续弱势。 联系电话：021-80220262 操作上： 品种基本面分析及行情研判： | 品种 | 观点及操作建议 | 方向研判 | 分析师 | 联系人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 流动性持续提升，看涨情绪高涨 IM2508合约最后交易日收于贴水。 | | 投资咨询部 | | | | 上周A股延续涨势，沪指创阶段收盘新高，沪深两市成交额连 | | | | | | 续3日突破2万亿。从行业来看，通讯、非银金融行业领涨，银行、 | | | | | | 钢铁板块跌幅居前。股指期货随现货指数上涨，基差继续走强，IC、 | | | | | | | | 张舒绮 | 联系人：房紫薇 | | | | | 从业资格： | 021-80220135 | | 股指 | 7月国内经济指标有所波动，全国规模以上工业增加值、社会 | 看涨 | F3037345 | 从业资格： | | | 消费品零 ...

兴业期货日度策略：2025.08.12 重点策略推荐及操作建议： 金融期货方面：市场情绪积极，赚钱效应持续，沪深300指数IF2509前多持有。 商品期货方面：碳酸锂、多晶硅短期易涨难跌。 联系电话：021-80220262 操作上： 品种基本面分析及行情研判： | 品种 | 观点及操作建议 | 方向研判 | 分析师 | 联系人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场情绪积极，赚钱效应持续 周一A股再度走强，创业板指领涨，沪深两市成交额扩大至 | | | | | | 1.85（前值为1.74）万亿元。从行业来看，计算机、通讯、电子行 | | | | | | 业领涨，银行、石油化工、煤炭板块小幅收跌。股指期货随现货上 | | 投资咨询部 | | | | 涨，持仓量提升，各合约基差贴水有所修复。 | | 张舒绮 | 联系人：房紫薇 | | | 昨日股指再度走高，市场乐观情绪得到进一步强化，股市赚钱 | | 从业资格： | 021-80220135 | | 股指 | 效应继续带动增量资金入场。关税政策方面，中美斯德哥尔摩经贸 | 谨慎看涨 | F3037345 | 从业资格 ...

Report Summary on Investment Strategies 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index Futures**: Bullish [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Sideways pattern [1] - **Gold**: Bullish pattern; recommended to hold short - put option positions for the 10 - contract [1][4] - **Silver**: Bullish pattern; recommended to hold long positions and short - put option positions for the 10 - contract [4] - **Copper**: Cautiously bearish [4] - **Aluminum - related Metals**: Aluminum is cautiously bullish; Alumina and Aluminum Alloy are in a sideways pattern [4] - **Nickel**: Sideways; recommended to hold short - call option positions [4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Sideways [6] - **Silicon Energy**: Sideways pattern [6] - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Sideways pattern; for rebar, hold short - put option positions; for hot - rolled coil, recommend to go long on the January contract on dips; for iron ore, consider short - put option positions for the 09 - contract or go long on the 01 - contract after the environmental protection limit expectation is fulfilled [5] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Sideways [7] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish pattern; recommend to take profit on short positions for the 09 - contract [7] - **Float Glass**: Bearish pattern for the 9 - contract; recommend to take profit on short positions and go long on the 01 - contract [7] - **Crude Oil**: Bearish pattern [7] - **Methanol**: Sideways; recommend to sell an option straddle [9] - **Polyolefins**: Sideways, trending slightly bullish [9] - **Cotton**: Bearish pattern [9] - **Rubber**: Cautiously bullish [9] 2. Core Views - **Equity Index Futures**: With policy support, bottom - up recovery of corporate earnings, and abundant liquidity, the upward trend of the equity index is clear, and the bullish sentiment is strengthened [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: The macro - economic outlook is volatile, and although the bond market is supported by loose liquidity, there is a lack of new positive factors, so it may continue to trade at a high level [1] - **Precious Metals**: The weakening US dollar and rising Fed rate - cut expectations boost the prices of gold and silver. The gold - silver ratio has room for repair, and silver shows a clear bullish pattern [4] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Supply disruptions support prices, but demand concerns limit the upside potential. Different metals have different supply - demand situations [4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply - side disturbances are easing, and demand expectations are turning positive, with the supply - demand structure showing signs of improvement [6] - **Silicon Energy**: Industrial silicon supply is shrinking, and polysilicon has strong cost and policy support, but the actual production volume in August needs attention [6] - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Coal production control supports steel prices. Different steel products and iron ore contracts have different supply - demand and price trends [5] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply of coking coal is expected to tighten, and the supply - demand of coke is expected to increase, with both in a sideways pattern [7] - **Soda Ash and Float Glass**: Soda ash has a bearish fundamental outlook, while float glass may turn around in the long - term if supply contraction expectations are fulfilled [7] - **Crude Oil**: The increasing probability of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict reduces the risk premium, leading to a short - term weakening of oil prices [7] - **Methanol**: The contradiction between loose coastal supply and tight inland supply makes it difficult for methanol prices to rise or fall, and an option straddle strategy is recommended [9] - **Polyolefins**: Supply and demand will increase simultaneously in August, and the trend will turn sideways and slightly bullish [9] - **Cotton**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season, resulting in a weakening trend [9] - **Rubber**: The demand outlook is improving, and the raw material price is stabilizing, so the rubber price is expected to rebound [9] 3. Summary by Categories **Equity Index Futures** - Wednesday, the equity index rose steadily, with small and micro - cap stocks leading the gains. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased slightly to 1.76 trillion yuan. The mechanical, defense, and coal industries led the gains, while the pharmaceutical and construction sectors declined. The equity index futures strengthened with the spot market, and the basis of each contract narrowed slightly. The margin balance returned to the 2 - trillion - yuan mark, and leveraged funds accelerated their entry. With positive factors such as policy support and corporate earnings recovery, the upward trend of the equity index is clear, and long positions should be held [1] **Treasury Bonds** - The bond market continued to fluctuate at a high level. There is uncertainty about trade tariffs between some countries and the US, the Fed rate - cut expectation has risen, but inflation pressure still exists. The US dollar index continued to weaken. The central bank had a net withdrawal in the open market, but the liquidity remained loose. The bond market is difficult to reverse, but there is a lack of new positive factors, so it may continue to trade at a high level [1] **Precious Metals** - Trump's announcements on tariffs and sanctions, along with rising Fed rate - cut expectations, increased the short - term upward momentum of gold prices. The gold - silver ratio has room for repair, and silver shows a clear bullish pattern. It is recommended to hold short - put option positions for gold and silver 10 - contracts and long positions for silver [4] **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: Supply disruptions due to the Chilean copper mine incident and a weakening US dollar support copper prices, but weak demand expectations limit the upside [4] - **Aluminum - related Metals**: Alumina has an expected oversupply, but low warehouse receipts and market sentiment provide short - term support. The support for Shanghai Aluminum is strengthening, and its medium - term bullish pattern remains unchanged. Aluminum alloy follows the cost - based pricing logic and is in a sideways pattern [4] - **Nickel**: The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. Although the nickel price has rebounded due to macro - factors, the high inventory pressure limits the upside, and short - call option positions should be held [4] **Lithium Carbonate** - Due to policy impacts on the lithium resource end, the weekly production of lithium carbonate decreased, and the inventory pressure eased. The demand expectation has turned positive, but supply - side disturbances still exist [6] **Silicon Energy** - Industrial silicon supply is contracting passively, and polysilicon has strong cost and policy support. However, the actual production volume in August needs attention [6] **Steel and Iron Ore** - **Rebar**: The supply is restricted by environmental protection and industry policies, and the cost is supported by coal production control. The market sentiment is optimistic, and short - put option positions should be held [5] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The fundamentals are resilient, with supply constraints and cost support. It is recommended to go long on the January contract on dips [5] - **Iron Ore**: The 9 - contract is dragged down by environmental protection limits and a weak basis, while the 01 - contract has positive expectations. However, the price upside is limited, and different strategies can be adopted for different contracts [5] **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Coking Coal**: The market expects supply to tighten, but the impact of expectations on prices is greater than the fundamentals, and the risk of over - rising prices should be guarded against [7] - **Coke**: Both supply and demand are expected to increase, and the spot market is actively traded, with the futures price stabilizing and trending slightly bullish [7] **Soda Ash and Float Glass** - **Soda Ash**: The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to take profit on short positions for the 09 - contract [7] - **Float Glass**: The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is expected to increase. In the long - term, if supply contraction expectations are fulfilled, the price may turn around. It is recommended to take profit on short positions for the 9 - contract and go long on the 01 - contract [7] **Crude Oil** - The increasing probability of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict reduces the risk premium, and the short - term oil price may weaken [7] **Methanol** - The port inventory is increasing, and the production enterprise inventory is decreasing. The contradiction between loose coastal supply and tight inland supply makes it difficult for prices to rise or fall, and an option straddle strategy is recommended [9] **Polyolefins** - The supply is increasing due to the restart of maintenance devices, and the demand is also rising. The trend will turn sideways and slightly bullish [9] **Cotton** - The domestic cotton production is expected to increase, and the overseas demand is affected by trade frictions. The downstream is in the off - season, and the cotton price is weakening [9] **Rubber** - The demand outlook is improving, and the raw material price is stabilizing. The rubber price is expected to rebound as it is at a relatively low level [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The upward trend of stock index futures is clear, and long positions should be held; commodity futures such as Shanghai Aluminum and polysilicon continue to show a strong trend [1] - The bond market may continue to operate at a high level, and the prices of precious metals are running strongly; the copper market has short - term upward pressure, and the aluminum market has a clear medium - term long position pattern; the nickel market has limited upward space [1][4] - The supply - demand structure of lithium carbonate shows signs of improvement; the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon are supported; the prices of steel products are strongly supported; the prices of coking coal and coke are in a volatile state [5][6][7] - The fundamentals of soda ash and float glass are bearish in the short term, and the glass price may turn around in the long term; crude oil is weakly operating in the short term; methanol and polyolefin are in a volatile pattern [7][8][9] - Cotton is weakly operating, and rubber is expected to rebound in the short term [9] Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - The stock index continued to rise steadily on Wednesday, with small and micro - cap stocks leading the gains. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased slightly to 1.76 trillion yuan. The long - making sentiment in the market was strengthened, and the leverage funds accelerated to enter the market. The upward trend of the stock index is clear, and the long positions of IF2509 in the CSI 300 Index should be held [1] Bond Futures - The bond market continued to fluctuate at a high level. The macro - situation has uncertainties, the inflation pressure still exists, and the central bank's open - market operations have a net withdrawal, but the capital is still loose. The bond market is difficult to turn around, and there is a lack of new positive factors, so it may continue to operate at a high level [1] Precious Metals - After Trump announced a series of important news, the short - term upward momentum of gold prices has increased. The gold - silver ratio still has room for repair, and the long - position pattern of silver is clear. It is recommended to hold short - position out - of - the - money put options on the 10 - contract of gold and silver, and patiently hold long positions in silver [4] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The copper price continued to fluctuate within the range. The macro - situation has uncertainties, the supply side is tense due to the Chilean copper mine incident, and the demand side is cautious. The mine - end disturbances and the weakening of the US dollar index support the copper price, but the demand concerns still drag it down, and there is short - term upward pressure [4] Aluminum - The alumina price is slightly higher, and the market has an expectation of medium - term surplus, but the low warehouse receipts and market sentiment support the price. The demand for Shanghai Aluminum is expected to be cautious in the off - season, but the supply constraint limits the inventory accumulation pressure. The long - position pattern of Shanghai Aluminum in the medium term remains unchanged, and the long positions of AL2510 should be held [4] Nickel - The supply of nickel is loose, the demand has no significant improvement, and the high inventory pressure of refined nickel remains unchanged. Although the nickel price has rebounded at a low level under the influence of the macro - situation, the upward space is limited. It is recommended to hold short - position call options [4] Chemical Products Lithium Carbonate - Due to the influence of policies on the lithium resource end, the weekly output of lithium carbonate has decreased, the inventory accumulation pressure has been relieved, and the demand expectation has turned positive. The supply - demand structure shows signs of improvement, and the renewal result of the mining license of Jiuxiwo Mine needs to be closely watched this week [6] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The price of industrial silicon has rebounded, the supply is in a passive contraction state, and the fundamentals are supported. The spot price of polysilicon has risen significantly, with strong cost and policy support, but the actual production volume in August needs to be concerned [6] Steel and Iron Ore Rebar - The spot price of rebar continued to rise, the trading volume decreased slightly, the supply - demand contradiction accumulated slowly, and the inventory was at a low level. The supply is restricted by environmental protection and anti - involution policies, and the cost is supported by the rise in coking coal and coke prices. It is recommended to hold short - position out - of - the - money put options on RB2510P3000 [6] Hot - Rolled Coil - The spot price of hot - rolled coil continued to rise, and the fundamentals are tough. The supply is restricted, the cost is supported, and the market sentiment is optimistic. It is recommended to lay out long positions on the 1 - contract on dips [6] Iron Ore - The iron ore shows a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength. The 9 - contract is dragged down by environmental protection restrictions and weak basis, while the 1 - contract is supported by positive expectations. However, the upward space of the iron ore price is limited. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on the 09 - contract or go long on the 01 - contract after the environmental protection restriction expectations are fulfilled [6] Coking Coal and Coke Coking Coal - The market has an expectation of supply tightening, but the full implementation probability of reducing coal mine production hours is low, and the influence of expected sentiment on coal prices is greater than the fundamentals. Be wary of the risk of over - rising prices [7] Coke - Five rounds of price increases for coke have been implemented, the coking profit has been repaired, the supply and demand are expected to increase, the spot market trading is active, and the futures price is stable and fluctuating strongly [7] Soda Ash and Float Glass Soda Ash - The fundamentals of soda ash are bearish. The daily production is stable, the supply constraint is insufficient, the demand has no improvement, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The 9 - contract is approaching delivery, and the delivery game may be intense. It is recommended to stop profit on short positions on the 09 - contract [7] Float Glass - The downstream orders of glass deep - processing enterprises have not improved significantly, the replenishment willingness is limited, and the inventory is expected to accumulate. The 9 - contract is approaching delivery, and the delivery game may be intense. In the long term, if the supply contraction expectation is fulfilled, the glass price may turn around. It is recommended to stop profit on short positions on the 9 - contract on dips and lay out long positions on the 01 - contract [7] Crude Oil - Geopolitical factors increase the probability of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and the short - term risk premium decreases. Although the inventory data is positive, the market reaction is insufficient, and the crude oil is weakly operating [7] Methanol - The port inventory has increased, and the production enterprise inventory has decreased. The coastal supply is loose, and the inland supply is tight. It is recommended to sell an option straddle combination [9] Polyolefins - The production enterprise inventory and social inventory of polyolefins have increased, indicating a loose supply. The supply and demand will increase simultaneously in August, and the trend will turn to a volatile and slightly strong state [9] Cotton - The cotton growth in Xinjiang is good, with a high probability of increased production. The overseas cotton production area has good weather, but the Sino - US trade situation restricts cotton exports. The downstream is in the off - season, and the demand is weak. The cotton is weakly operating [9] Rubber - The sales of passenger cars are good, the tire enterprises' inventory is decreasing, and the demand expectation is turning warm. The raw material price has stopped falling and stabilized, and the rubber price is expected to stop falling and rebound in stages [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautiously bullish: Index futures, coking coal, coke, rubber [1][8][10] - Sideways pattern: Treasury bonds, gold, industrial silicon, steel (including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore), soda ash, float glass, crude oil, methanol, polyolefins, cotton [1][4][6][8][10] - Bearish bias: Non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, nickel), lithium carbonate [4] - Bullish pattern for silver [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has entered an observation period, and commodities may return to fundamental pricing. The risk appetite has cooled, but the long - term logic of anti - involution driving profit repair remains unchanged for A - shares, and the downside risk of the index is relatively controllable. For bonds, the macro - face turnaround needs further confirmation, and the short - term market fluctuates sharply. For precious metals, the short - term dollar rebound affects gold, but the long - term bullish logic for silver remains. For non - ferrous metals, although there are short - term impacts such as tariffs, the medium - to - long - term supply pattern varies by metal. For energy and chemical products, the supply and demand and market sentiment vary, with some facing supply - side constraints and others with demand - side uncertainties. For steel and building materials, the market has returned to fundamental pricing, and the supply - demand contradictions are different for each product. For agricultural products, the supply and demand situation affects the price trends, with some facing weakening upward momentum and others having certain demand support [1][4][6][8][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Commodity Futures General - The market has shifted to an observation period, and commodities may return to fundamental pricing [1] Index Futures - Risk appetite has cooled, but the long - term logic of anti - involution driving profit repair for A - shares remains unchanged. The A - share profit bottom is emerging, and the market trading is still active. The downside risk of the index is relatively controllable [1] Treasury Bonds - The latest PMI data is below expectations, and the market optimism has weakened. The central bank has a net withdrawal in the open market, and the short - term market fluctuates sharply. The upward movement of the bond market needs further confirmation, and short - duration bonds perform relatively stably [1] Precious Metals - Gold: The US economy is cooling moderately, the Fed is not likely to cut interest rates in the short term, and the short - term dollar rebound drags down the gold price. However, the long - term bullish logic remains. - Silver: Although affected by short - term negative factors, the long - term bullish pattern remains, and the gold - silver ratio still has room for repair [4] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Trump's copper tariff measures have short - term impacts, but the medium - to - long - term supply of the mining end is still tight, and the COMEX - LME copper premium is expected to be quickly repaired. - Aluminum: The market has differences on the medium - term supply situation. The short - term price is affected by emotions, and the Shanghai aluminum has certain support below. - Nickel: The nickel market remains in an oversupply pattern, and the price is in a low - level sideways range [4] Energy and Chemical Products - Lithium carbonate: The fundamentals are still loose, but the supply - demand structure has marginally improved, and the price may stop falling and move sideways. - Industrial silicon: The market furnace - opening number has slightly increased, and the short - term upward momentum is limited under the short - term position limit. - Crude oil: There are uncertainties in the market before the sanctions are implemented, and the risk premium has increased. - Methanol: The production has increased, and if the production and arrival volume continue to rise in early August, the price may weaken. - Polyolefins: The demand off - season is coming to an end, and the price trend in August and September depends on demand. The tariff trend in early August is crucial [4][6][8][10] Steel and Building Materials - Rebar: The market has returned to fundamental pricing, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price may be weakly sideways. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply - demand contradiction accumulates slowly, and the price may be weakly sideways after a rapid decline. - Iron ore: The anti - involution expectation trading is basically over, and it follows the sector's fluctuations. - Soda ash: The fundamental excess pattern remains, and the price is weakly sideways. - Float glass: The fundamentals are better than soda ash, but the demand is affected by the real - estate cycle, and the price is in a sideways pattern [6][8] Agricultural Products - Cotton: The supply - demand upward momentum has weakened, and the price is weakly running. - Rubber: The supply - demand is expected to increase, the short - term contradiction is not prominent, and the price downward driving force has weakened [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bearish**: Crude oil, soda ash, float glass, polyolefins, cotton [2][8][10] - **Bullish**: Rubber [1][2][10] - **Cautiously Bullish**: Stock index, rubber [1][10] - **Sideways**: Treasury bonds, gold, silver, copper, aluminum, alumina, nickel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, steel (including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore), coking coal, coke, methanol [1][4][5][6][8][10] 2. Core Views - **Stock Index**: With the adjustment of market policy expectations, the stock index has corrected recently. The market lacks a trading mainline and returns to the rotation of hot - spot sectors, with a slight decline in capital volume. However, the domestic economy shows resilience, the logic of anti - involution driving profit repair remains unchanged, and there is still an expectation of long - term capital support. The short - term disturbance causes shock and consolidation, and the downside risk of the stock index is relatively controllable [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The VAT on treasury bond interest income has been restored. The macro - environment has limited new drivers, and the expectation of domestic policy intensification continues but weakens. The central bank still clearly intends to protect the liquidity, and the market demand for old bonds has increased, supporting the price. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [1]. - **Precious Metals**: The US July non - farm payrolls data was unexpectedly lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was also significantly revised down. Market concerns about the US economy have increased, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has rebounded. Gold prices are strongly supported, and silver remains in a bullish pattern [1][4]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The mid - term upward pattern remains unchanged due to the tight supply at the mine end, but in the short term, the dollar index fluctuates sharply, demand expectations are cautious, and the price is under pressure [4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The short - term and mid - term expectations of alumina still have large differences, and market fluctuations may continue. The short - term demand for Shanghai aluminum is cautious, but the supply - side constraints are clear, and the mid - term bullish strategy is relatively stable [4]. - **Nickel**: The fundamentals of nickel remain weak, and the price has returned to the low - level range. It lacks the momentum to break through downward and is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has tightened slightly. Affected by policies at the lithium resource end, the release of salt - lake production capacity has been further blocked, and the mica material production has also declined. The overall inventory has started to decrease, and lithium prices are expected to stop falling and fluctuate [6]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The anti - involution expectation continues, and attention should be paid to the implementation of orders and policy rhythm. The short - term price fluctuates following the trend of polysilicon [6]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The market has returned to the fundamental pricing logic. Although the fundamentals of steel products (rebar, hot - rolled coil) and iron ore face marginal pressure, the long - term anti - involution logic has not been falsified. In August, prices are expected to operate within a range [6]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market sentiment of coking coal has cooled down, and the coal price is supported by fundamentals in the short term and is expected to fluctuate. Coke's fifth round of price increase has basically been implemented, and the futures trend has shown signs of stabilization [8]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: The market has returned to the fundamental pricing logic. Soda ash has a large supply pressure, and glass has relatively better fundamentals than soda ash in the off - season. In the long term, it depends on the implementation of the anti - involution policy in the float glass industry. The strategy of going long on glass 01 and short on soda ash 01 is recommended [8]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ has accelerated production increases, and the market is worried about the economy. In the short term, crude oil prices may be weak [8]. - **Methanol**: In early August, methanol prices are supported, but in the second half of the month, as supply rises, prices are expected to fall again [8]. - **Polyolefins**: In July, the production of plastics and PP increased. In August, production is expected to increase further. The cost side lacks support, and the possibility of a non - peak season this year is relatively high [10]. - **Cotton**: The upward momentum at both the supply and demand ends has weakened, and cotton is running weakly [10]. - **Rubber**: The traditional production - increasing season of ANRPC has a slow recovery rhythm, while the tire production line starts well, and the consumption growth rate may have an incremental expectation. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the rubber price is expected to stop falling [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - Last week, the A - share market rose first and then fell, with a decline in trading volume on Friday. The communication, pharmaceutical, and media sectors led the gains, while the non - ferrous metals, coal, and comprehensive finance sectors significantly declined. The stock index futures showed a differentiated trend, with IM relatively firm but the discount deepening [1]. Treasury Bonds - Last week, treasury bond futures fluctuated sharply, first falling and then rising. The macro - environment has limited new drivers, and the central bank still clearly intends to protect the liquidity. The VAT on treasury bond interest income has been restored, and the market demand for old bonds has increased [1]. Precious Metals - The US July non - farm payrolls data was unexpectedly low, and the data of the previous two months was revised down, increasing market concerns about the US economy and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. Gold prices are strongly supported, and silver remains in a bullish pattern [1][4]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Last week, copper prices fluctuated weakly. The tariff on US copper was much lower than expected, and the premium of COMEX - LME copper quickly converged. The mid - term upward pattern remains unchanged, but short - term price pressure has increased [4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The price center of alumina has shifted downwards, and Shanghai aluminum has stabilized and fluctuated. The production and operating rate of alumina have continued to rise, and the market expects medium - term supply to be in excess, but the spot circulation is still relatively tight. The short - term demand for Shanghai aluminum is cautious, but the supply - side constraints are clear [4]. - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore has increased seasonally, and the refining capacity is in excess. The downstream consumption is in the off - season, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures of lithium carbonate have weakened, and the production has declined slightly. The total inventory has started to decrease, and lithium prices are expected to stop falling and fluctuate [6]. Industrial Silicon - The number of open furnaces in the industrial silicon market has increased slightly. The price fluctuates following the trend of polysilicon. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production plans of manufacturers in Yunnan, Xinjiang, and Qinghai in August [6]. Steel and Iron Ore - **Rebar**: The market has returned to the fundamental pricing logic. The fundamentals face marginal pressure, but the long - term anti - involution logic has not been falsified. In August, the price is expected to operate within a range [6]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market has returned to the fundamental pricing logic. The fundamentals also face marginal pressure, but the long - term anti - involution logic remains valid. In August, the price is expected to operate within a range, and attention should be paid to the narrowing opportunity of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The market has returned to the fundamental pricing logic. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the price is expected to follow the fluctuation of steel products. The long - term drivers are the implementation of the anti - involution policy in the domestic steel industry and the release of overseas new mineral production capacity [6]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal**: The market sentiment has cooled down, and the coal price is supported by fundamentals in the short term and is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to whether mines will stop production or limit production due to inspections [8]. - **Coke**: The cost of coking coal has risen faster than the price of coke products, and the coking profit has not been repaired. The downstream demand is still supported, and the fifth round of price increase has basically been implemented, with the futures trend showing signs of stabilization [8]. Soda Ash and Glass - **Soda Ash**: The market has returned to the fundamental pricing logic. The daily production has increased, the speculative demand has cooled down, and the warehouse has been passively restocked. The 09 contract short - position is recommended to be held, and the strategy of going long on glass 01 and short on soda ash 01 is recommended [8]. - **Float Glass**: The market has returned to the fundamental pricing logic. The fundamentals are relatively better than soda ash in the off - season, but the downstream order has not improved. The short - position is recommended to be held lightly, and the strategy of going long on glass 01 and short on soda ash 01 is recommended [8]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ has accelerated production increases, and the market is worried about the economy. In the short term, crude oil prices may be weak [8]. Methanol - In July, the methanol production was flat compared with June. In August, the supply pressure is expected to increase, and the price is expected to fall again in the second half of the month [8]. Polyolefins - In July, the production of plastics and PP increased. In August, production is expected to increase further. The cost side lacks support, and the possibility of a non - peak season this year is relatively high [10]. Cotton - The supply of cotton has problems with the circulation of some warehouse receipts, and the downstream demand is weak. The upward momentum at both the supply and demand ends has weakened, and cotton is running weakly [10]. Rubber - The traditional production - increasing season of ANRPC has a slow recovery rhythm, while the tire production line starts well, and the consumption growth rate may have an incremental expectation. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the rubber price is expected to stop falling [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings and Core Views Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Stock index futures, silver, propylene, steel (including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore), coking coal, coke, float glass, methanol, polyolefin, rubber [1][2][4][7][8][9] - **Bearish**: Treasury bonds [1] - **Sideways**: Gold, copper, aluminum and alumina, nickel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, soda ash, crude oil, cotton [1][3][4][5][7][8][9] Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: With positive policy expectations, continuous improvement in liquidity, and a relatively stable macro - environment, the stock index is expected to rise further [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is affected by sentiment and the stock - commodity market. There may still be upward pressure, and long - term risks may be more significant [1]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is in a sideways pattern, lacking a trend - driving force in the short term. Silver is in a bullish pattern, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to converge [1][3]. - **Base Metals**: Copper, aluminum, alumina, and nickel are in a sideways pattern due to factors such as uncertain trade policies and complex supply - demand situations [3]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Propylene has strong demand; crude oil is affected by geopolitical factors with risk premiums rising; methanol and polyolefin are bullish due to factors like supply tightening and production capacity delays [2][7][8][9]. - **Steel and Coking**: Steel products (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore) are supported by the "anti - involution" logic and upcoming environmental protection restrictions. Coking coal and coke are expected to rise slightly [4][5][7]. - **Building Materials**: Soda ash is in a sideways pattern with an oversupply situation. Float glass is bullish, and the strategy of long glass and short soda ash can be continued [7]. - **Agricultural Products**: Cotton has a high yield expectation, but the industry is still under pressure. Rubber's price increase rate has slowed, and its supply - demand is in a double - growth pattern [9]. 2. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The trading volume has recovered, and the futures are stronger than the spot. With a stable macro - environment, policy support, and improved liquidity, it is expected to rise further. Suggest to hold existing long positions [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market fell significantly. Due to the strong expectation of "anti - involution" policies and positive risk appetite, it is in a bearish pattern. Attention should be paid to central bank actions [1]. Commodity Futures Precious Metals - **Gold**: After the third - round Sino - US trade negotiation, there is no major breakthrough. The short - term lacks a trend - driving force, and it is in a sideways pattern. Suggest holding short - put option positions and considering short - term long positions on dips [1][3]. - **Silver**: With the correction of economic expectations and the convergence of the gold - silver ratio, it is in a bullish pattern. Suggest holding long positions in the AG2510 contract [1][2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The details of US copper tariffs are unclear, and the supply - demand situation is complex. It is in a sideways pattern [3]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Alumina is affected by sentiment and has high price volatility. Aluminum has a tight supply - demand balance in the medium - term, with a more robust support at the bottom [3]. - **Nickel**: The fundamentals are not significantly improved, and the surplus situation suppresses prices. It is in a sideways pattern, and the strategy of selling call options can be continued [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Propylene**: Due to strong demand, new long positions can be entered [2]. - **Crude Oil**: Affected by geopolitical factors such as possible sanctions on Russia, the risk premium has increased. It is in a sideways pattern, and attention should be paid to supply - side risks [7]. - **Methanol**: With planned device overhauls and good olefin demand, the supply is tightening in the short term, and it is in a bullish pattern [7]. - **Polyolefin**: Affected by the rise in crude oil prices and the delay of new production capacity, it is in a bullish pattern [9]. Steel and Coking - **Rebar**: The spot price has rebounded, and the supply - demand structure is healthy. Supported by the "anti - involution" logic and upcoming environmental protection restrictions, it is in a bullish pattern. Suggest holding short - put option positions [4][5]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The spot price has risen, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Supported by environmental protection restrictions, it is in a bullish pattern [4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: With high steel mill profits and healthy supply - demand, it is in a bullish pattern in the short term. Suggest relevant option and arbitrage strategies [4][5]. - **Coking Coal**: The market expects supply to tighten, and the fundamentals support prices. However, due to market uncertainties, short - term unilateral trading should be cautious [7]. - **Coke**: It is expected to follow the trend of coking coal, and the fourth - round price increase is being promoted [7]. Building Materials - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand surplus pattern remains, but the short - term surplus has narrowed. It is in a sideways pattern, and new positions should wait and see. The strategy of long glass and short soda ash can be continued [7]. - **Float Glass**: The fundamentals are stronger than soda ash, and the "anti - involution" logic may improve the supply - demand situation. It is in a bullish pattern. Suggest long - position strategies and continue the long - short arbitrage strategy [7]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The new - year cotton has a high yield expectation, but the industry is still under pressure due to weak demand. It is in a sideways - bullish pattern [9]. - **Rubber**: The demand is expected to improve, but the supply is also increasing. The price increase rate has slowed, and it is in a slightly bullish pattern [9].