煤炭行业周报：动力煤价弱势运行，焦炭开启第二轮提涨-20250429

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [1] Core Viewpoints - The thermal coal price continues to decline due to weak demand in the off-season, while coking coal prices are supported by a second round of price increases for coke [3][5][11] - The coal sector underperformed the market index, with the coal index down 0.63% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's increase of 0.56% [6][7] - The market sentiment remains weak, influenced by macroeconomic conditions and high inventory levels [5][12] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - Supply and demand are loose, leading to a continued decline in thermal coal prices. The average utilization rate of 100 thermal coal mines is 91.1%, with a slight increase of 0.9% [11] - The price of thermal coal at production sites continues to drop, with significant declines noted in various regions. For instance, the price of Q5500 thermal coal in Shanxi is 519 CNY/ton, down 6 CNY/ton week-on-week [13][16] - The demand for thermal coal remains weak, with daily consumption at southern power plants at 1.764 million tons, a slight increase from the previous week [19] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are stable, with the first round of price increases for coke implemented, raising prices by 50-55 CNY/ton [3][28] - The average utilization rate of 88 sample coking coal mines is 87.4%, indicating stable supply conditions [27] - The steel industry shows signs of recovery, with the profit margin at 57.58%, which supports the demand for coking coal [27][34] Market Performance - The coal sector has underperformed the broader market, with the coal index down 0.63% while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.56% [6][7] - The average daily trading volume in the market is 1.1 trillion CNY, with financing buy-ins around 88 billion CNY [6] - The political bureau meeting proposed measures to stabilize and activate the capital market, which has not yet formed a clear market direction [6][7] Shipping and Logistics - The number of vessels at anchor in the Bohai Rim has decreased, with an average of 83 vessels, down 7 from the previous week [38] - Shipping rates show mixed trends, with some routes experiencing price increases while others decline [38] Industry News - The coal industry is seeing advancements in green mining technologies, with significant breakthroughs reported in Shanxi [41] - The launch of the "MineGuard AI" project aims to enhance safety in mining through intelligent risk management [41] - The coal sector is focusing on digital transformation and improving overall competitiveness through new technologies [12][41]