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煤炭行业周报:动力煤价弱势运行,焦炭开启第二轮提涨
Datong Securities·2025-04-29 14:23

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [1] Core Views - The thermal coal price continues to decline due to weak demand in the off-season and high inventory levels, while coking coal prices are supported by stable supply and a second round of price increases for coke [5][11][27] - The coal sector underperformed the market index, with the coal index down 0.63% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's increase of 0.56% [6][7] - The market sentiment remains weak, but there is potential for price recovery as temperatures rise and summer demand increases [12][27] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - Supply and demand are loose, leading to a continued decline in thermal coal prices. The average utilization rate of 100 thermal coal mines is 91.1%, with a slight increase of 0.9% [11] - The price of thermal coal at production sites has decreased, with specific prices reported: Inner Mongolia's Q5200 at 451 CNY/ton, Shanxi's Q5500 at 519 CNY/ton, and Shaanxi's Q5500 at 460 CNY/ton [13][16] - The daily consumption of coal by power plants is 1.82 million tons, which is historically low, indicating weak demand [19] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are stable, with the first round of price increases for coke implemented, raising prices by 50-55 CNY/ton [27][28] - The average utilization rate of 88 coking coal mines is 87.4%, indicating stable supply [27] - The steel industry shows signs of recovery, with a profit margin of 57.58% and a high operating rate of 84.35% for blast furnaces [27][34] Market Performance - The coal sector has underperformed the broader market, with significant fluctuations in individual stock performances [6][7] - The average daily trading volume in the market is 1.1 trillion CNY, with financing buy-ins around 88 billion CNY [6][7] Industry News - The coal industry is seeing advancements in digital transformation and clean utilization technologies, which may enhance overall competitiveness [12][41][42] - The launch of the "MineGuard AI" project aims to improve safety in mining through intelligent risk management [41]