股指日报：涨跌不一-20250429

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The trading volume of the two markets has been continuously declining, with frequent sector rotations and a strong wait - and - see sentiment in the market. The core of domestic market trading is policy expectations and external tariff disturbances. The A - share market's sensitivity to tariff policies has weakened, and without an obvious and clear policy shift, it is difficult to have a significant impact on domestic stock indices. Domestic policies are expected to act according to the progress of tariff games and economic data. Before a change occurs, the volatile market is likely to continue. As tomorrow is the last trading day before the holiday, the market is expected to maintain a cautious attitude for pre - holiday risk avoidance. Important US economic data will be released during the May Day holiday, which may affect the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and thus disrupt the A - share market. Therefore, it is necessary to be vigilant about the increased volatility of stock indices after the holiday [6] Market Review - Today, stock indices showed mixed performance, with large - cap indices closing down and small - and medium - cap indices closing up. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 34.226 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF and IH declined with shrinking volume, while IC and IM rose with shrinking volume [4] Important Information - The US Treasury Secretary claimed that China is responsible for the escalation of the tariff war. The Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that China has repeatedly made it clear that there are no winners in tariff and trade wars. The tariff war was initiated by the US. If the US wants to resolve the issue through dialogue and negotiation, it should stop threatening and pressuring and conduct dialogue with China on the basis of equality, respect, and reciprocity. - The Ministry of Finance plans to re - issue 71 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds on May 9. The re - issued treasury bonds are 30 - year fixed - rate coupon - bearing bonds, with the same coupon rate as the previously issued bonds of the same period, which is 1.88% [5] Strategy Recommendation - Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change | -0.21% | -0.35% | 0.23% | 0.7% | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 6.3647 | 3.3464 | 6.492 | 17.8842 | | Trading volume MoM | -0.5073 | -0.3138 | -0.3088 | -0.9018 | | Open interest | 241,073 | 78,771 | 198,932 | 310,352 | | Open interest MoM | -2,958 | -195 | -832 | -5,159 | [6] Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market Observation | | Name | Value | | --- | --- | --- | | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | -0.05 | | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -0.05 | | | Ratio of rising stocks to falling stocks | 2.13 | | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 102.2083 | | | Trading volume MoM (billion yuan) | -34.226 | [7]