Huaan Securities·2024-05-01 00:35Investment Rating - Industry Investment Rating: Overweight [1] Core Viewpoints - The release of substantial favorable policies for real estate is expected to support short-term valuations in the building materials sector and improve mid-term demand. The logic for supply-side clearing in the industry is becoming clearer, as the consumer building materials market has rapidly shifted from an incremental market to a stock market, putting operational pressure on small and medium enterprises and facilitating market share gains for leading companies [3][4][6]. Industry Perspectives - Continuous optimization of real estate policies in core cities is observed. For instance, Beijing's housing loan policies have been adjusted to favor first-time buyers, and Chengdu has lifted restrictions on housing purchases. Additionally, Shenzhen is launching a "sell old for new" housing initiative [4][24]. - The price increase of glass fiber is gradually being realized, with companies like China Jushi showing improved profit expectations despite a decline in revenue and net profit in Q1 2024. The company has implemented price adjustments for its products, which are expected to have a significant positive effect [5][25]. - Short-term focus on affordable housing is crucial for the development of the real estate sector, with plans to add 6.5 million affordable rental housing units across 21 provinces during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, potentially benefiting construction and building materials companies [6][26]. - Long-term urban renewal initiatives are anticipated to supplement demand for consumer building materials, with significant investments expected from city village renovations and related infrastructure projects [9][27]. - New materials are highlighted as key investment opportunities, particularly in pharmaceutical glass and electronic yarn, driven by increasing demand and favorable market conditions [10][29]. Market Review - The building materials index has seen a decline of 0.45%, while the broader market indices have shown positive performance. Specific sub-sectors such as consumer building materials and glass have experienced varying degrees of price changes [30][32]. - The average price of high-standard cement has decreased by 0.18% to 361.45 CNY per ton, with regional price fluctuations noted. The cement inventory ratio stands at 67.46%, indicating a slight decrease [45][46]. - The average price of float glass has decreased by 0.9% to 1721 CNY per ton, with an increase in inventory levels. The market is experiencing mixed demand dynamics across different regions [51][53].