Report Industry Investment Rating The provided document does not contain information on the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - The tariff shock has eased, and copper prices have returned to fundamentals. The 90 - day tariff suspension will continue to affect the copper market, with overseas rush - to - export continuing and domestic export orders somewhat restricted. - The current copper consumption shows a structurally differentiated characteristic, with the growth of emerging sectors' demand contrasting sharply with the weakness of traditional real estate. - The global copper market is expected to have a larger supply surplus in 2025 compared to 2024, with the supply surplus increasing from 170,000 tons to 338,000 tons [101][102]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Copper Market Overview - Price Fluctuations: On April 2, due to the US imposing reciprocal tariffs globally, copper prices plummeted. The price dropped from $9,721/ton on April 2 to $8,105/ton on April 7, a decline of 16.6%. After Trump announced a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on 75 countries on April 9, prices rebounded. By April 25, LME copper prices reached a maximum of $9,481.5/ton, and domestic prices reached 78,520 yuan/ton, almost recovering all the losses caused by the tariff increase [3][11]. - Supply and Demand: Copper concentrate supply is tight, with processing fees dropping to - $42/ton. However, smelters have no plans to cut production. The proportion of scrap - copper - produced blister copper has increased to around 20%. Global consumption has advanced due to Trump's tariff policy. In May, overall consumption is expected to be high at the beginning and low at the end, with inventory likely to continue to decline slightly, and the spot premium remaining firm [4][14]. II. Market Section 1. Market Review - Price and Inventory: In April, due to the tariff policy, copper prices first fell and then rebounded. Domestic buying was strong, and the spot premium rose. In April 2025, global visible inventory decreased by 119,900 tons compared to March, reaching 604,000 tons. Chinese social inventory decreased by 155,500 tons, reaching 181,700 tons, while bonded - area inventory increased by 6,200 tons to 85,100 tons [11][12]. - Consumption Drivers: The significant increase in consumption in April was due to suppressed downstream procurement demand in March, increased procurement and inventory - building demand after the price drop, and unaffected export orders. Terminal consumption showed structural differentiation, with significant growth in wire and cable, photovoltaic, and export sectors, while traditional real estate was weak [12]. 2. Market Outlook - Macro Factors: During the May Day holiday, the release of important economic data such as the US ISM manufacturing PMI and the euro - zone manufacturing PMI may have a significant impact on copper prices. Trump's tariff policy remains unclear and may still impact the market [13]. - Fundamentals: Copper concentrate supply remains tight, and processing fees are expected to continue to decline. The 90 - day tariff suspension will continue to affect the market, with overseas rush - to - export continuing. The situation of the import window depends on domestic consumption in May and June [14]. - Price Forecast: If re - export orders can still be issued, copper prices will continue to consolidate, mainly in the range of 75,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. If re - export orders are completely prohibited, prices will return to 73,000 yuan/ton. In the long term, the overall center of copper prices will move down, but the decline may not be smooth before the US tariff policy is clear [5][15]. III. Copper Mine Production is Downgraded, and Copper Supply Growth is Flat with 2024 1. Global Copper Mine Production - Production Forecast: After the release of major companies' 2024 annual reports, the market has significantly downgraded the expected copper concentrate production for 2025. The expected copper mine supply increment in 2025 has been reduced from 500,000 tons to 200,000 tons, and the growth rate has dropped from 2.2% to 0.88% [20]. - Company - Specific Production: Different mining companies have different production trends in 2024 and 2025. For example, Anglo American's production decreased in 2024 and is expected to further decline in 2025, while MMG's production increased in 2024 and is expected to continue to rise in 2025 [21][24]. 2. Global Refined Copper Production - Supply and Demand Balance: In February 2025, the global refined copper market had a supply surplus of 61,000 tons. The first two months of this year had a supply surplus of 150,000 tons, similar to the same period last year [45]. - Processing Fees and Production: The long - term copper concentrate processing fee for 2025 between overseas mines and Chinese smelters is at a record low. As of April 25, the import processing fee has dropped to - $42.52/ton. Despite losses, smelters generally have no plans to cut production [45][47]. - Waste Copper Supply: Waste copper has become a key supplement to raw materials. From January to February 2025, the supply of domestic waste copper increased by 226,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.79%. In March, China imported 189,700 tons of waste copper, a year - on - year decrease of 13% [47]. IV. Consumption Analysis 1. Overseas Consumption - US Consumption: The US is in the stage of rush - to - import, and the replenishment cycle may last until July. Due to tariff disturbances, US consumption has advanced, but consumer confidence is declining, and consumption may decline more rapidly after the concentrated replenishment ends [63]. - European Consumption: After continuous interest rate cuts, the euro - zone manufacturing PMI rebounded in April, but the comprehensive PMI and service PMI declined. Consumer confidence is also low, and consumption expenditure is restricted [64]. - Emerging Economies: Emerging economies are in a 90 - day rush - to - export stage. Countries with high tariff - levying ratios will experience an export consumption boom during this period, but the situation after July depends on US tariff policies [64]. 2. Domestic Consumption - Real Estate: From January to March 2025, the sales area of new commercial housing and the completion area of housing decreased year - on - year, although the decline narrowed. Real estate will continue to drag down electrolytic copper consumption [79]. - Power Grid: The planned investment of the two major power grid companies in 2025 increased by 6.7% compared to 2024. From January to March, the power grid investment increased by 24.8% year - on - year, and the wire and cable industry's copper consumption increased significantly [84]. - Home Appliances: In March 2025, the production and sales of household air - conditioners increased year - on - year. The consumption of air - conditioners is shifting from exports to domestic sales, but there are concerns about consumer waiting due to subsidies [86][87]. - Automobiles: From January to March 2025, China's automobile production increased year - on - year, with new energy vehicles growing rapidly. The substitution of new energy vehicles for traditional fuel vehicles will continue [89]. - Photovoltaic and Wind Power: From January to March 2025, photovoltaic installation increased year - on - year, and the industry is in a rush - to - install period. Wind power installation decreased slightly, but the annual new - installation scale is expected to increase [95]. 3. Consumption Summary - In the 90 - day period, US consumption may decline rapidly after the concentrated replenishment ends. After the sharp decline in copper prices in early April, domestic consumption increased rapidly, with significant growth in wire and cable, photovoltaic, and export sectors, while real estate continued to drag down the market [96][97]. V. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Global Copper Supply - Demand: The global copper market is expected to have a larger supply surplus in 2025 compared to 2024, with the supply surplus increasing from 170,000 tons to 338,000 tons. The growth rate of copper mine production in 2025 is expected to be 0.88%, and the consumption growth rate is expected to be 2% [101][102]. - China's Refined Copper Supply - Demand: China's refined copper consumption is expected to grow by 2 - 2.6% in 2025. The supply - demand balance shows a certain degree of fluctuation in different months [105].
铜05月报：关税冲击缓和，铜价重归基本面-20250430
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-04-29 23:38