Hundsun(600570) 东吴证券·2025-04-29 23:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a 14% year-on-year decline in total revenue for Q1 2025, amounting to 1 billion yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 186% to 31 million yuan [1] - The decline in revenue was primarily due to reduced income from asset management technology services, risk and platform technology services, and operational and institutional technology services [7] - Investment income saw a significant increase of 2635% year-on-year to 55 million yuan, contributing to the overall profit growth [7] Revenue and Profit Analysis - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is 7,281 million yuan, with a projected decline of 9.62% in 2024A, followed by a recovery to 7,551 million yuan in 2025E, and further growth to 10,156 million yuan by 2027E [1][18] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1,199 million yuan in 2025E, with a growth trajectory leading to 1,654 million yuan by 2027E [1][18] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.63 yuan in 2025E, increasing to 0.87 yuan by 2027E [1][18] Business Segment Performance - Wealth technology service revenue decreased by 5% to 235 million yuan, while asset management technology service revenue dropped by 34% to 187 million yuan [7] - Operational and institutional technology service revenue fell by 9% to 212 million yuan, and risk and platform technology service revenue decreased by 43% to 56 million yuan [7] - Other business segments showed varied performance, with data services and innovation business revenues declining by 10% and 9% respectively, while corporate finance and insurance core services increased by 19% [7] Cost Structure - Overall costs decreased, with operating costs down by 2% to 362 million yuan [7] - Sales expenses saw a significant reduction of 32% to 85 million yuan, while management expenses decreased by 11% to 145 million yuan [7] - R&D expenses remained stable, with a slight increase in the R&D expense ratio to 49% [7] Future Outlook - The company maintains its previous performance forecasts, expecting net profits of 1,200 million yuan in 2025, 1,400 million yuan in 2026, and 1,700 million yuan in 2027, corresponding to P/E ratios of 46, 40, and 33 respectively [7][18] - The overall recovery of the capital market is anticipated, although significant growth in technology investments by financial institutions has yet to be observed [7]