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天奈科技(688116):2024年报及2025一季报点评:业绩符合预期,单壁碳管放量在即

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 is in line with expectations, with a revenue of 1.448 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.13%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 250.2 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.80% [8] - The company is expected to see significant growth in single-wall carbon tube production in 2025, with an estimated output of 10-11 million tons of carbon tube slurry, representing a 20% increase [8] - The gross profit margin for carbon tube slurry is projected to be stable, with a recovery in single-ton profitability anticipated in the second half of 2025 [8] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue forecast for 2024 is 1.448 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 2.174 billion yuan in 2025, and further growth to 2.902 billion yuan in 2026 [9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 250.2 million yuan in 2024, increasing to 450.04 million yuan in 2025, and reaching 652.68 million yuan in 2026 [9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.73 yuan in 2024, increasing to 1.31 yuan in 2025, and further to 1.89 yuan in 2026 [9] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 40.70 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 14.03 billion yuan [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 56.08 for 2024, decreasing to 31.18 in 2025, and further to 21.50 in 2026 [9] Operational Insights - The company has seen a significant increase in carbon tube slurry shipment volume, with a total of 85,000 tons shipped in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 56% [8] - The company’s operating cash flow for 2024 is projected to be 276 million yuan, with a decrease in capital expenditure expected [9]