油料产业风险管理日报-20250430

Report Information - Report Title: Oilseed Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: April 30, 2025 - Analysts: Zhou Yuyu (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0019884), Jin Wandong (Futures Practitioner License No.: F03118199) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the second quarter, the soybean supply pressure is being traded based on the expectation of higher supply compared to previous years and the acceleration of oil mill operations. Oil mills will focus on quickly realizing profits. In the long - term, after trading the reality of loose soybean meal supply, the fundamental logic will return to the new US soybean planting and trade war negotiations [4]. Summary by Directory Price Range Forecast - Monthly price range forecast: The price of soybean meal is expected to be between 2,800 and 3,300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.7% and a historical percentile of 68.5% over 3 years. The price of rapeseed meal is expected to be between 2,450 and 2,750, with a current volatility of 0.3107 and a historical percentile of 0.819 over 3 years [3]. Hedging Strategies - Trader Inventory Management: For traders with high protein inventory worried about falling meal prices, they can short soybean meal futures (M2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 3,300 - 3,400 [3]. - Feed Mill Procurement Management: Feed mills with low regular inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 2,850 - 3,000 [3]. - Oil Mill Inventory Management: Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal sales prices can short soybean meal futures (M2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 3,100 - 3,200 [3]. Core Contradictions - In the second quarter, the soybean supply pressure is being traded based on the expectation of higher supply compared to previous years and the acceleration of oil mill operations. In the long - term, after trading the reality of loose soybean meal supply, the fundamental logic will return to the new US soybean planting and trade war negotiations [4]. Bullish Factors - Port and oil mill soybean inventories continue to rise. With the increase in the operating rate and state reserve auctions, supply in some areas has gradually recovered. There is a strong bullish sentiment in the far - month contracts due to tariff disturbances. The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side [11]. Bearish Factors - After the subsequent arrival of soybeans, the supply will be smoothly connected. The demand side is cautious about long - term stocking, and the near - term demand is mainly based on previous contracts and spot purchases. In April, about 850,000 tons of soybeans arrived at ports, but port clearance delays may affect the final oil mill crushing volume. In May, 1.15 million tons are expected, and in June, 1.05 million tons are expected. Feed mill physical inventories have reached an annual low [6][7][8]. Futures Prices | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3,008 | 0 | 0% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2,833 | 0 | 0% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 2,964 | - 21 | - 0.7% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2,370 | - 29 | - 1.21% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2,472 | 0 | 0% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2,588 | - 53 | - 2.01% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1,052.5 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.286 | - 0.0022 | - 0.03% | [9][13] Spreads - Soybean Meal Spreads: M01 - 05 is 175 (up 26), M05 - 09 is - 131 (down 16), M09 - 01 is - 44 (down 10). The soybean meal spot price in Rizhao is 3,450 (down 50), and the basis is 486 (down 29). - Rapeseed Meal Spreads: RM01 - 05 is - 102 (up 23), RM05 - 09 is - 116 (up 1), RM09 - 01 is 218 (down 24). The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian is 2,588 (down 10), and the basis is 0 (up 43). - Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Spread: The spot spread is 852 (down 50), and the futures spread is 376 (up 32) [14]. Import Costs and Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (47%) | 5,443.5196 | - 33.5155 | 0.1024 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3,742.75 | 9.06 | 74.44 | | US Gulf (3%) - US Gulf (47%) Cost Difference | - 1,629.3528 | - 3.2149 | - 21.5309 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (47%) | - 1,677.4796 | - 33.5155 | - 155.7915 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 236.9058 | - 57.233 | - 0.2086 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 15 | - 125 | - 83 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 9 | - 121 | - 52 | [15]