软商品日报：全球贸易前景不明，短期保持观望-20250430

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for both sugar and cotton are "sideways" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the 2024/25 season, sugar mills in major producing areas except Yunnan have started to finish crushing, and a restorative increase in sugar production is a foregone conclusion. Holiday consumption during festivals like May Day has boosted sugar demand and supported stable sugar prices. Internationally, Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is gradually ramping up, but due to weather factors, its sugar output is uncertain, and international sugar prices are expected to weaken sideways in the short term. Attention should be paid to the planting and growth of domestic sugarcane and beets, as well as Brazil's sugar production progress [1] - Due to the US tariff hikes on Chinese exports, China's textile and clothing exports have slowed down, with consumption decreasing by 200,000 tons to 7.6 million tons and imports also decreasing by 200,000 tons to 1.5 million tons. Recently, the high temperatures in most parts of Xinjiang are generally beneficial for cotton sowing [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Overview - External Market Quotes: From April 28 to April 29, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased from $17.83 to $17.58, a decline of 1.40%; the price of US cotton decreased from $67.56 to $66.56, a decline of 1.48% [3] - Spot Prices: From April 28 to April 29, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning decreased from 6,220 yuan to 6,210 yuan, a decline of 0.16%; the price of sugar in Kunming decreased from 6,070 yuan to 6,055 yuan, a decline of 0.25%; the cotton index 328 decreased from 3,281 to 3,280, a decline of 0.08%; the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged at 14,000 yuan [3] - Spread Overview: From April 28 to April 29, 2025, the spreads of SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, CF05 - 09, sugar 01 basis, sugar 09 basis, cotton 01 basis, cotton 05 basis, and cotton 09 basis all increased, while the spreads of CF01 - 05, CF09 - 01, and sugar 05 basis remained unchanged or decreased [3] - Import Prices: From April 28 to April 29, 2025, the price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 80.15 [3] - Profit Margins: From April 28 to April 29, 2025, the sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1,295 [3] - Options: The implied volatilities of SR509C5900, SR509P5900, CF509C12800, and CF509P12800 are 0.1091, 0.111, 0.1375, and 0.1382 respectively, and the historical volatilities of SR509 and CF509 are 8.92 and 11.7 respectively [3] - Warehouse Receipts: From April 28 to April 29, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 28,756 to 28,750, a decline of 0.02%; the number of cotton warehouse receipts increased from 10,479 to 10,838, an increase of 3.43% [3] 3.2 Company Introduction - Xinda Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by Xinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million yuan. It is one of the large - scale, standardized, and high - reputation futures companies in China [9] - The company is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - power member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange, an observer of the China Securities Association, and an observer member of the Asset Management Association of China [9]