国泰君安期货所长早读-20250430

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US labor market shows signs of weakness, with the March JOLTS job openings hitting a six - month low, and the upcoming Q1 GDP initial value may disappoint. The policies of the Trump administration and the tariff war are negatively affecting the labor market [7]. - For the container shipping index (European line), the near - term is under pressure. It is recommended to hold a 10 - 12 reverse spread position lightly, and reduce positions for near - month single - side trading before the holiday [8][9]. - Industrial silicon has a weak fundamental pattern. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies and be cautious when holding positions before the holiday [10]. - For live pigs, the inventory accumulation drive is weakening, and a phased inventory reduction may start, with short - term reverse spread opportunities [11][12]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pre - reading Highlights from the Director - US Labor Market: The US March JOLTS job openings were 7.192 million, far lower than the expected 7.5 million. The data has been on a downward trend since 2022, and recent policies have further impacted the labor market. The upcoming Q1 GDP initial value may be disappointing [7]. - Container Shipping Index (European Line): The near - term is under pressure. In early May, the loading rate was lower than expected, and the market freight rate has dropped. The 10 - 12 reverse spread can be held through the holiday, and near - month single - side trading should reduce positions before the holiday [8][9]. - Industrial Silicon: The fundamentals are weak. The industry inventory is high, supply is increasing while demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies and be cautious before the holiday [10]. - Live Pigs: The inventory accumulation drive is weakening. With the increase in temperature, a phased inventory reduction may start in May, and there are short - term reverse spread opportunities [11][12]. 3.2 Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals: Gold shows risk preference recovery, and silver rebounds steadily. Gold has a trend strength of 0, and silver also has a trend strength of 0 [18][21]. - Copper: Inventory continues to decrease, supporting the price. The trend strength is 0 [23][25]. - Aluminum and Alumina: Aluminum fluctuates strongly, while alumina drops significantly. Both have a trend strength of 0 [26][28]. - Zinc: It has a strong current situation but weak expectations, and will trade sideways in the short term. The trend strength is 0 [29][30]. - Lead: Demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. The trend strength is - 1 [32][33]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The upside and downside space of nickel converges, and the price may trade in a narrow range. Stainless steel has a cost - feedback game on the disk. Both have a trend strength of 0 [35][38]. - Tin: It shows a slight recovery. The trend strength is 0 [39][42]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon has a weakly oscillating disk, and polysilicon has a slight increase in registered warehouse receipts. Both have a trend strength of - 1 [43][46]. - Lithium Carbonate: Warehouse receipts continue to increase, and the disk is under pressure. The trend strength is 0 [47][50]. - Iron Ore: Expectations are volatile, and it trades in a wide range. The trend strength is 0 [51][52]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Demand expectations are poor, and prices fluctuate at a low level. Both have a trend strength of 0 [55][58]. - Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy: Silicon ferroalloy oscillates at a low level due to black - sector resonance, and manganese ferroalloy oscillates at a low level due to ore - end information disturbances. Both have a trend strength of 0 [59][62]. - Coking Coal and Coke: They are disturbed by production - limit news and trade in a wide range. Both have a trend strength of 0 [63][65]. - Steam Coal: The rigid demand has limited impact, and it trades weakly with oscillations. The trend strength is 0 [66][68]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable [69]. - Para - Xylene, PTA, and MEG: Para - xylene has a collapsing cost and expanding processing margin. PTA recommends a month - spread reverse spread, and MEG suggests a long - PTA short - MEG strategy [72][73].