国债期货：区间震荡延续，期债上行空间再逼仄

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On April 29, Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising 0.69%, 0.23%, 0.13%, and 0.01% respectively. The Treasury bond futures index was - 0.1. The volume - price factor was bullish, while the fundamental factor was bearish. The cumulative returns of the strategy without leverage were - 0.41% in the past 20 days, - 0.78% in the past 60 days, 0.35% in the past 120 days, and 1.46% in the past 240 days. The equity market oscillated and adjusted throughout the day, with the three major indices slightly declining [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - Treasury Bond Futures: The 30 - year main contract (TL2506) opened at 120.400, closed at 120.980, up 0.69% with an amplitude of 0.51% and a trading volume of 77,545 and an open interest of 106,469. The 10 - year main contract (T2506) opened at 108.925, closed at 109.120, up 0.23% with an amplitude of 0.20% and a trading volume of 51,372 and an open interest of 192,474. The 5 - year main contract (TF2506) opened at 105.935, closed at 106.070, up 0.13% with an amplitude of 0.15% and a trading volume of 50,163 and an open interest of 157,294. The 2 - year main contract (TS2506) opened at 102.336, closed at 102.332, up 0.01% with an amplitude of 0.06% and a trading volume of 34,240 and an open interest of 93,075 [3]. - Equity Market: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.2%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.62%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.65%. More than 4,100 stocks in the entire market declined, and nearly 100 stocks fell more than 9% [1]. 3.2 Capital and Yield - Funds: Overnight shibor was reported at 1.5410%, down 6.2bp from the previous trading day; 7 - day shibor was reported at 1.7480%, up 2.5bp; 14 - day shibor was reported at 1.7780%, up 0.9bp; 1 - month shibor was reported at 1.7450%, down 0.2bp [2]. - Bond Yields: The Treasury bond yield curve shifted down by 1.70 - 3.10BP (2Y down 1.70BP to 1.46%; 5Y down 2.25BP to 1.52%; 10Y down 2.74BP to 1.62%; 30Y down 3.10BP to 1.88%). The credit bond yield curve showed mixed changes [4]. 3.3 Market Transactions - Money Market: On April 29, the inter - bank pledged repurchase market traded a total of 1.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.11%. Overnight repurchase closed at 1.50%, up 5bp from the previous trading day; 7 - day repurchase closed at 1.75%, up 16bp; 14 - day repurchase closed at 1.75%, down 2bp; 1 - month repurchase closed at 1.74%, up 4bp [4]. 3.4 Macro and Industry News - The central bank conducted 340.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on April 29, with an operating rate of 1.5%. With 220.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, a net injection of 120 billion yuan was achieved. In March, the bond market issued a total of 8.73566 trillion yuan of various bonds, including 1.27863 trillion yuan of Treasury bonds, 978.8 billion yuan of local government bonds, 1.02264 trillion yuan of financial bonds, 1.33352 trillion yuan of corporate credit - related bonds, 18.6 billion yuan of credit - asset - backed securities, and 4.06862 trillion yuan of inter - bank certificates of deposit [7]. 3.5 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of Treasury bond futures was 0, indicating a neutral stance, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [8]. 3.6 Institutional Position Changes - Daily Changes: Private funds reduced their net long positions by 2.37%, foreign investors by 3.21%, and wealth management subsidiaries by 3.94%. - Weekly Changes: Private funds reduced their net long positions by 2.41%, foreign investors increased theirs by 4.34%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased theirs by 3.83% [5].